Bill_Kar wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:16 am
A rather awkward scenario though, but when we permutate, we tend to give an advantage to Vettel because we all want him to fight back. But when you look into the facts, in the end of the day, it's more probable for Vettel to DNF (or hit trouble in general) than Hamilton.
Of course a weak team losing 5 or 6 times in row, will win eventually. But statistically speaking, it would be wiser to bet your money that this team will lose the next fixture.
This statistical talk about Vettels DNF feels too much like playing roulette based on statistics. Even if red comes 10 times in a row, the chance of hitting black on the 11th bet is still 48.6%.
Sure, F1 cars may be a bit more predictable, since for every technical issue, there's a logical reason behind it. Behind every part there's an element to wear and tear etc. But looking at all the issues both Mercedes and Ferrari had this year, I can come up with the following:
Austria: Hamilton gearbox
Bahrain: Bottas engine failure (high mileage?)
Silverstone: Vettel & Kimi tire blowout
Baku: Hamilton head-rest issue
Singapore: Vettel/Max/Kimi collision (driver inflicted)
Malaysia: Vettel QF & Kimi formation lap PU related (carbon air-intake)
Japan: Vettel PU related (spark plug), Bottas + Kimi gearbox
There are probably more but those that come to my mind immediately. Now, Vettel has had his fair share of bad luck with Malaysia and Japan and I am yet to see compelling arguments those issues (carbon in-take and spark-plugs) are because Ferrari has been pushing too far on their spec4 engine. To me, they sound like silly mistakes. The carbon-in-take issue sounds like bad quality-control that manifested itself in both cars almost at the same time, but once the faulty part was replaced, Vettel showed a very good incident free race. In Japan, the spark plug issue only hit Vettel and there is indication that Mercedes could have run into the same issue (they exchanged spark plugs on Hamiltons car before the race as well). Maybe just very unfortunate bad luck.
I am yet to see or be convinced that these issues will strike again. Just because Vettel had 2 technical issues in the last two races does not IMO make it more probable that he will be hit again sooner than Hamilton. One could say Hamilton, who has pretty much had a flawless run so far (sans the headrest issue and gearbox penalty in Austria) is long overdue a problem.
Nearing the end of the season, Hamilton is still limited to the engines within his engine pool. These engines will have to last for another 4 race-weekends, assuming the plan isn't to take a 5th and penalties. Vettel has more and fresher engines at his disposal (even if one assumes that the engine in Japan might have been damaged as a result of running on 5 cylinders).