[2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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Just_a_fan
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Just_a_fan » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:01 am

Webber2011 wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:37 am
Hahahaha !
This thread is going to be so much fun to review after 2018 is done and dusted :lol:
It just reads as a group of people putting their favourite team at the top and then playing with the rest. There have been no surprises from most of the regulars. :lol:
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Phil » Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:39 pm

I am just going to put my speculation on 2018 in as well.

I personally see RedBull as the biggest contender in 2018. Why? I think towards the end of this season, the RedBull was most let down by its engine and yet, despite this shortcoming, managed to contest for wins with genuine pace. Assuming the gap between engines will narrow down further, I can only see this making RedBull even stronger than they already are.

Ferrari already has a very strong package, perhaps the best package this year, but that package is aided IMO by a better engine vs the RedBull. Mercedes also had a very strong package despite the problems they had, but I think some things worked in their favor this year that may not next year:

1.) Qualifying pace put them on pole, even on tracks where they perhaps didn't have the quickest package under race conditions
2.) The car is following a different aero philosophy and with the ban on their suspension, they may face problems keeping up long term (unless they change it, but find themselves behind)
3.) They may still struggle with tires every now and then that is IMO also linked to the nature of their car.

I think these 3 factors may overall lead to less consistent results for Mercedes in 2018 and with stronger competitors may push them down.

So for now, purely by my speculation, I see RedBull slightly ahead, with Mercedes and Ferrari behind closely. Honestly, I wouldn't surprised to see Max or Dan take the win in Melbourne (inclined to say Max).

Or maybe Mercedes will just surprise us all again with even a more impressive PU (vs their rivals) in 2018...
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by bauc » Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:12 pm

I'm just dreaming of 3 way title fight till the very last race, and let the best man (CAR) wins!
Life long Mclaren fan

Moose
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Moose » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:28 am

I recon Mercedes will dominate more next year. This year they got surprised by the suspension rules change. Next year they'll have been able to design the car with the current suspension rules in mind. Plus, they've seen Ferrari's sidepod entrances, and are in the best position of all other teams to implement it - they have the longest car, and the most space to move components around to free up the space.

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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by dren » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:53 pm

PlatinumZealot wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:02 pm

Toro Rosso flounders with chassis and drivers despite a decently improved Honda engine.
I am expecting Hartley to look decent next year and improve as the season progresses. I'm not sure about Gasly.
Honda!

giantfan10
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by giantfan10 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:33 pm

bauc wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:12 pm
I'm just dreaming of 3 way title fight till the very last race, and let the best man (CAR) wins!
i suspect that you will get your wish if these 2 FIA rules for 2018 are enforced
Changes to ensure that oil cannot be used as fuel.
Introduction of a detailed specification for oil.

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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by ESPImperium » Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:16 pm

1] Ferrari - VET will shine as he will mostly do it on his own with no number two, RAI will be 6th or 7th as both Red Bull & Mercedes drivers will be ahead of him
2] Red Bull - RIC will outshine VER, however both will both get 3 wins each, but will be operated by less than 20 points at the end of the year.
3] Mercedes - HAM will score a WDC P2, however BOT will probably bomb and be dropped at the end of the year after going in P5 in WDC
4] McLaren - ALO will win, and win at least twice, VAN will be outshone but be closer than this year, real star will be the car as it will eventually be the second best on the grid after a lower key start of the year.
5] Renault - HUL and SAI will drive this team, they will drive each other hard and both will score a a podium or two.
6] Williams - STR will mature a little more, be less flash and bang, however KUB will drive most of race events with DIR stepping in for at least two races as KUB will have difficulties. But KUB will outscore STR, even after only racing 18\19 times to STR 21 races.
7] Force India - Both drivers will trip over each other, despite having a good car and a resource that could score P5 in Constructors table. OCO will be the better driver but PER will threaten to leave funding gap if he is outshone.
8] Haas - Car will have less issues in braking side, but drivers will be solid and make a solid effort.
9] Toro Rosso - HAR will grow and will be dominant driver once he gets a proper per season test season under him. GAS will be unknown. Honda will improve and in the back of a McLaren be a title contender, however Chassis will probably be a stumbling block as the chassis integration to the Honda will be a issue.
10] Alfa Sauber - Car will improve massively with a current spec Ferrari, however the chassis will be immature, LEC will drive the socks off the car but ERI will be left behind.

Others into 2019:
RAI will be gone at end of 2018.
RIC will have a bidding war, and will eventually go to Mercedes
SAI will go back to Red Bull to replace RIC
GRO will be called up to Ferrari as they won't want a LEC as he needs another 2 years
OCO will take a seat at Renault in 2019
ERI will be gone and replaced by GIO
WHE will come in at Force India after being a TD/RD at Mercedes for a year with
GAS & HAR will be retained for another season at Toro Rosso
STR will stay again at Williams but Williams will again have a merrygoround-hulabaloo about the KUB seat.
Haas will take Sean Galael or some other hot shoe from F2 who brings budget and branding to the team to partner MAG.

Red Bull will take a Honda power plant for 2019
Two new teams will be announced for 2020 and will both build up a test car for the end of 2019 and attend the Abu Dhabi test, one powered by Honda and the other Renault. This is to allow the FIA and FOM to have a larger grid. However there will be an announcement for a new team and engine supplier in 2021 as well, likely to be Porsche or Audi. They will be allowed to make a test car attend tests and do tyre testing in order to build up a power unit that will be able to hit the track a good one in 2021 as there will be a rules change for new manufacturers and power unit manufacturers a year or two of track test time to allow they to learn.

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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by ScottB » Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:10 pm

1. Mercedes - still got an engine advantage, and should produce a less ‘diva-ish’ car.

2. Red Bull - improvement to the Renault engine will make them contenders.

3. Mclaren - and it’ll do the same here.

4. Ferrari - there’s been reports about the negative atmosphere in the team this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop back.

5. Renault

6. Force Whatever Name They Choose

7. Williams

8. Haas

9. STR

10. Alfa Romeo Sauber

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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by GPR-A » Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:58 pm

giantfan10 wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:33 pm
bauc wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:12 pm
I'm just dreaming of 3 way title fight till the very last race, and let the best man (CAR) wins!
i suspect that you will get your wish if these 2 FIA rules for 2018 are enforced
Changes to ensure that oil cannot be used as fuel.
Introduction of a detailed specification for oil.
Why? These rules are being enforced to bring parity between 3 engine manufacturers. So far, it is speculated that, it is the oil burning thingy that is the reason for the Mercedes' dominance. Red Bull believes that they can be on par with Merc and Ferrari, but for qualifying. So, if the oil thing takes away the advantage from Merc and Ferrari and brings Renault on equal footing (only Red Bull) in qualifying, then you would get a 3 way fight.

Even with all these oil regulation things, if Mercedes runs away next year with the title, then the chorus for changing the engine specification for 2021 would rise at a frantic pace. Even Ferrari and Renault would join the chorus, albeit with a lot less aggression than others.

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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Schuttelberg » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:36 pm

Phil wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:39 pm
I am just going to put my speculation on 2018 in as well.

I personally see RedBull as the biggest contender in 2018. Why? I think towards the end of this season, the RedBull was most let down by its engine and yet, despite this shortcoming, managed to contest for wins with genuine pace. Assuming the gap between engines will narrow down further, I can only see this making RedBull even stronger than they already are.

Ferrari already has a very strong package, perhaps the best package this year, but that package is aided IMO by a better engine vs the RedBull. Mercedes also had a very strong package despite the problems they had, but I think some things worked in their favor this year that may not next year:

1.) Qualifying pace put them on pole, even on tracks where they perhaps didn't have the quickest package under race conditions
2.) The car is following a different aero philosophy and with the ban on their suspension, they may face problems keeping up long term (unless they change it, but find themselves behind)
3.) They may still struggle with tires every now and then that is IMO also linked to the nature of their car.

I think these 3 factors may overall lead to less consistent results for Mercedes in 2018 and with stronger competitors may push them down.

So for now, purely by my speculation, I see RedBull slightly ahead, with Mercedes and Ferrari behind closely. Honestly, I wouldn't surprised to see Max or Dan take the win in Melbourne (inclined to say Max).

Or maybe Mercedes will just surprise us all again with even a more impressive PU (vs their rivals) in 2018...
Mercedes had 15 poles and 12 wins this year and Ferrari had the best package?

Sebastian Vettel must be an awful driver then!
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proteus
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by proteus » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:05 pm

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

3. Redbull Tag Heuer

4. FI Mercedes

5. Mclaren Renault

6. Renault

7. Williams Mercedes

8. Haas Ferrari

9. Sauber Alfa Romeo

10. STR Honda

Comment:

I believe Mercedes is still having an edge, they had it the whole season this year, but they attended it as a marathon and not a sprint. Because of that, Ferrari thought they have smelled the blood and went for it like sharks, resulting in component failures and penalties and mistakes, while at first "volnureable" Mercedes simply collected the points regurarly with max. efficiency possible and closing the deal in the second half of the season. Thats why i believe they are still ahead.

Redbull will stay third as long as they are stuck with an inferior engine, surpassing top 2 teams at few venues.

FI is surprising me year after year and i dare to say they will be tough to beat for fourth in the championship. The only concern for the team so far is that they would overexceed themself financially when wishing to achieve more.

I hope Mclaren profits from Renault merger and becomes a solid team again. U need to walk first, to run later so i put them to fifth overall, this result would be possible this year if they would have the Renault power and their better reliability.

Renault sixth, but it is possible they will be even better.

Williams will slip down the order, firstly due to the driver pair which will not be as convincing, secondly by their downturn spiral which is happening year after year now.

Haas eight, with probably another dog of a car, but good enough to get ahead of STR and Sauber, but fighting heavily with the Sauber.

STR is going to be last. This result is almost a destiny for them in 2018, unless Honda manages to finally produce a power unit that will work properly and make a proper power output. Drivers are very green as well, so it will be interesting to see how will they cope with the challenge.
If i would get the money to start my own F1 team, i would revive Arrows

proteus
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by proteus » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:07 pm

Schuttelberg wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:36 pm
Phil wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:39 pm
I am just going to put my speculation on 2018 in as well.

I personally see RedBull as the biggest contender in 2018. Why? I think towards the end of this season, the RedBull was most let down by its engine and yet, despite this shortcoming, managed to contest for wins with genuine pace. Assuming the gap between engines will narrow down further, I can only see this making RedBull even stronger than they already are.

Ferrari already has a very strong package, perhaps the best package this year, but that package is aided IMO by a better engine vs the RedBull. Mercedes also had a very strong package despite the problems they had, but I think some things worked in their favor this year that may not next year:

1.) Qualifying pace put them on pole, even on tracks where they perhaps didn't have the quickest package under race conditions
2.) The car is following a different aero philosophy and with the ban on their suspension, they may face problems keeping up long term (unless they change it, but find themselves behind)
3.) They may still struggle with tires every now and then that is IMO also linked to the nature of their car.

I think these 3 factors may overall lead to less consistent results for Mercedes in 2018 and with stronger competitors may push them down.

So for now, purely by my speculation, I see RedBull slightly ahead, with Mercedes and Ferrari behind closely. Honestly, I wouldn't surprised to see Max or Dan take the win in Melbourne (inclined to say Max).

Or maybe Mercedes will just surprise us all again with even a more impressive PU (vs their rivals) in 2018...
Mercedes had 15 poles and 12 wins this year and Ferrari had the best package?

Sebastian Vettel must be an awful driver then!
Mercedes simply outsmarted Ferrari. As i wrote before, they took the season as a marathon and not a sprint. Ferrari took it as a sprint and it bit them in the behind.
If i would get the money to start my own F1 team, i would revive Arrows

PlatinumZealot
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by PlatinumZealot » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:34 pm

Schuttelberg wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:36 pm

Mercedes had 15 poles and 12 wins this year and Ferrari had the best package?

Sebastian Vettel must be an awful driver then!
Ferrari should have one but they made the most mistakes.

There were seven races left with two realistic contenders for the title: Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Austin, Mexico, Interlagos, Abu Dhabi - Ferrari were faster in four of those races and equal in one.

By all accounts, Ferrari still were faster in some tracks even though they were not dominant.
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Manoah2u
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Manoah2u » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:37 am

Ferrari dropped the ball when their cars couldn't start.

They had both Kimi and Seb on the grid and had to pull them from there because they weren't put together properly.
Also happened during Qually, that hurt a lot too.

amidst all of that, Vettel got hotheaded and steered into the left and collected Max and Kimi, committing half-suicide regarding the amount of points they could have taken there and blocked for Hamilton. If Vettel had not unneccesarily cut off Max after a less then perfect start, he could have forced Max into taking the corner wide and cutting under him, what could Kimi have done? If Kimi got in front of Seb, he'd have to move anyway. In any case, even IF Max would have stayed in front, that would have been a guaranteed P2 with Kimi surely P3 and Hamilton at best P4. that would have given Seb a good point boost and Lewis at bay.

But that's not what happened, Seb made 2 huge mistakes, the first was Baku, which he might - read; surely - have won had he not roadraged into Lewis, and the second was he took out himself, Kimi and Max in the first corner. Then karma knocked on the door and his Ferrari said 'NOPE. not today'. more than once.

That means Ferrari essentialy was in a better position than painted in the end results. Their competitiveness at the end of the season , even when the titles were dusted, shows just that.

Unfortunately - for Ferrari that is - 2018 rules will demand even more from reliability, which is exactly where Mercedes has excelled and Ferrari cleary has been a good amount weaker. Vettel has played some cards and is running out of 'Get out of jail free cards' and so is Ferrari. Kimi's fire is definately wearing out, and Vettel's frustration is growing, just like how internally, Ferrari is having ego-clashes (Binotti and Arrivabene to name one) and getting under the usual high pressure Ferrari bosses put on the team (Pierro Ferrari and Marchionne f.e.). No other team but Renault last year and Mclaren last year too had these circumstances. That means Ferrari have an extra 'object' to deal with compared to the competition.

So my gut feelings say Ferrari is in for another year of what we had this year, which can get just as embarassing again, only i think it's rather likely that whilst last year they were in the luxury of only having actual competition from Mercedes, in 2018 RedBull will knock firmly on the door and it'll be between those 3 (Merc, RB, Ferrari), which makes it even harder compared to last year. I also think both Ricciardo, Verstappen AND Hamilton have an edge on Vettel on keeping their cool.

So 2018 is going to be rather spectacular i think. UNLESS Mercedes new chassis is absolutely godlike and they'll just blast away in warspeed. BUT i'm actually expecting them to struggle with the new chassis.
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Phlumbert » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:44 am

I still see Mercedes somewhat ahead - primarily because of their reliability. The 3 PU limit for the season is going to hamper a lot of teams as they will either take additional elements resulting in penalties or run more conservatively in order to protect elements - Mercedes will of course be affected too, but to a lesser extent IMO. In addition, the Merc engine seems to be able to run at a similar level of performance as Ferrari/Renault with a lower fuel flow rate so they can carry less fuel.
Source for this:
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... 87468.html

Chassis wise, they probably don't NEED to have the outright best chassis next year. If it's there or thereabouts, their PU will make up the difference, and then some on majority of tracks. There were some significant weaknesses with the W08 chassis early in the season regarding weight, uneven tire warm-up and following other cars (though this has been an issue for a while) but they did improve on those issues fairly well. I feel like they're in a good position to make a decent chassis though, based on what they've learnt about the long wheelbase/low rake philosophy during 2017, the data they would have gathered from other teams running shorter wheelbases with high rake during 2017 and with Allison now in the fold.

Ferrari and Red Bull should be fairly close behind though, and If Red Bull manage to produce a car that's fast (and Renault manage to produce an engine that's reliable) from the start of the season, they should be on terms with Ferrari on most circuits. This is a big IF, though as Red Bull has had to play catch up over the last two seasons and really suffered from atrocious reliability this season.
Unless Ferrari can get on terms with Mercedes' efficiency and reliability, I don't see them being able to properly challenge for the titles.