I like this game. But i'm not sure if the reasons you've given map very well.
I was just pondering the McLaren, and I've come to the surprising conclusion that she may be the low drag hero this year. But that only makes a winning car if as you suggest, the chassis is on point. First footage I saw from testing suggested that they were having the most trouble getting a setup out on track that was well behaved. But the second video from later laps suggested a fairly driveable chassis. I'm not willing to make a pronouncement yet. I think it'll be down to the team making the right decisions. I expect some strange decisions. I don't know what's up with them.
As for TR, well, they don't really make a lot of mistakes. Honda may or may not have been able to provide an engine that keeps them out of the grid penalty zone. Total unknown right now.
Their ability to put together a chassis and program is only slightly off the mark, and they right now seem to be one of the most motivated teams on the grid and the 'apparent' fundamentals of the car seem to be good.
I'm going to say Torro Rosso takes it by 6 points, with consistency, barring any Honda related issues. Averaging a couple points a race.
McLaren, definitely mixing it with the front of the midfield regularly, several races with a few points from both cars, but some fatal race planning costing them points in too many races.
the four immutable forces: