Looking at the data of longer runs as well as laptimes posted (yes, I know) and keeping in mind the trend of previous years;
1) Mercedes; no-brainer, their long runs were considerably the quickest and we’ve seen before that they can turn it up in quali better than anyone
2) Red Bull/ Ferrari; RB will essentially start where they ended las season, about half a second down in qualifying and a few tenths closer in the races. Ferrari are really nip-tuck with RB, they will not be quickest as times say, since they have usually run the lightest in testing, but will be solid enough to rack up podiums and the odd win.
4) McLaren/Haas/Renault; All midfield teams will be quite close, and logic says you should pick the Renault teams over Haas, but the data will show that on race sims Haas was a more than a match for either of them and they typically don’t go full-out in testing either. What separates these three from the other midfield is the driver quality. Renault and McLaren both are good in development, and I expect by midseason at the latest they will be definitively ahead of Haas. Between those two? The more reliable car will win out.
7) Force India/Williams/STR; FI will start here but will progress upwards, as has been recent trend. Williams looks really lost; their car seems very pesky and on edge, but I think it offers the best scope for development out of the entire grid. STR will be exactly like last season, picking up loose change, but the drivers will stay the whole year.
10) Sauber; same as last year but the actual time gap to the front has decreased.
Ferrari: "last lap Kimi, all or nothing" *crashes into Bottas*