I did logically think about it I think you’ve entirely missed my point though.Restomaniac wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:00 amErm Raikkonen was in far younger tyres. Logically think about it.f1316 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:23 amWithout the safety car, I think many - if not all bar Raikkonen - might have pitted again and/or had to defend from those who did.Fulcrum wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:41 am
2 laps fresher? Describing that strategy as 'working' is a bit of a stretch.
The differential in performance between the two vehicles was low, and the differential in tyres was also low. Vettel's best chance to pass was the Raikkonen roadblock. He was already beginning to fall out of DRS range at parts of the track when the SC was triggered.
Vettel’s tyres are hard to judge with the damage to both them and the car caused by the Verstappen incident, but Bottas’ had all but gone by the end - hence even Kimi catching him hand over fist. The Red Bulls, in my opinion, would have really struggled to get to the end quickly on the mediums they put on lap 18.
All of which is just to say I think there might have been another twist in the tail even without the safety car. RB seemed to manage the US pretty well in the first stint, so I suspect you could easily make up 2s per lap for the last 13/14 laps or so and make a two stop work. If Vettel had rolled the dice on it - perhaps in response to RB doing the same - Bottas probably would have been forced to try and go to the end as the undercut would have been too strong to react.
We’ll never know if any of that’s true but I think we would have been in for an interesting finale without the safety car.
At the point of the SC Raikkonen hadn't long pitted. Any car pitting would have lost far more time than the RedBulls did in normal racing conditions.
Vettel was behind Bottas and by the end his tyres would have been just as old. If Raikkonen couldn't pass Bottas on younger tyres why would Vettel manage it in tyres of a similar age?
We both know there is no way Ferrari are going to green light Raikkonen on younger tyres get past Vettel on older ones as well (That's even if he could pass Hamilton).
Bottas had the position and would have stayed there. If Vettel pitted on the next lap under the SC he would have been far further back and he wouldn't have got back in time.
Bottas was in position and would very likely have stayed there no matter what Ferrari did.
I’m saying if the safety car didn’t come out, there would have been a benefit for the car chasing - Vettel - to do another stop, given the rate at which tyres ended up going off.
If that were the case, and if he then managed to catch Bottas (big ifs), the delta would have been huge and overtake even easier than DR’s.
But it’s very much a hypothetical - we’ll never know.