Silly Season 2018/2019

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izzy
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by izzy » Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:00 pm

roon wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:29 pm
What's next for Vettel? And how soon.

Seems like Merc, BOT, and HAM have no reason to make changes for many more seasons.

Is Verstappen to Ferrari possible?
Seb will stay, is my feeling, and Ferrari will keep him until Charles is better than him. Seb is not made of glass, he is stubborn and has that one mission. He does seriously need a win tho

Max isn't going anywhere, he's still 21 and too extreme to mix in anybody else's cocktail

What is there for Ocon, is a question for me? Mind you i don't know what Toto sees in him to start with

Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Phil » Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:29 pm

Forget Vettel, what about Gasly?
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Jolle
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Jolle » Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:44 pm

izzy wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:00 pm
roon wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:29 pm
What's next for Vettel? And how soon.

Seems like Merc, BOT, and HAM have no reason to make changes for many more seasons.

Is Verstappen to Ferrari possible?
Seb will stay, is my feeling, and Ferrari will keep him until Charles is better than him. Seb is not made of glass, he is stubborn and has that one mission. He does seriously need a win tho

Max isn't going anywhere, he's still 21 and too extreme to mix in anybody else's cocktail

What is there for Ocon, is a question for me? Mind you i don't know what Toto sees in him to start with
On the contract side it should be quiet this season. All the main drivers and the ones that still have hope on their seats are under contract for 2020 (Hamilton, Vettel and Verstappen as the main three and Ricciardo and Sainz as the ones that hope)

But of course, contacts are contracts and they normally have lots of escape clausules and can be broken.

Hamilton is expected to stay put at Mercedes during his contract at least and there is no reason for Mercedes to break his contract.
Vettel could be the next Ferrari victim to not stay for his contract (it's been a while when Ferrari's main driver left on a normal way)
Verstappen could maybe lift some kind of performance option when before the end of his contract ends a spot opens up.

On the team side,

Mercedes is happy now, they have the best driver and a good wingman. For 2021 there are some options and possibilities. They could continue like they are now, Hamilton with Bottas, go for the future and partner Hamilton with Ocon or Russel and hope that Ocon/Russel develop fast enough to succeed Hamilton when he calls it quits. Or, with deep pockets, already partner up Hamilton and Verstappen for a Senna/Prost kind of team. And if Hamilton decides to leave for Ferrari (which I doubt) or quits the sport, they will offer Verstappen anything he wants.

Ferrari already showed their hand. They have Vettel for 2020 but Leclerc has a contract for 2021 and 2022 as well. So, they can continue with Vettel if Leclerc isn't what it looks like he is now, the next superstar, or go with Leclerc for 2021 and partner him with a steady experienced wing man like Hulk or Bottas. It would be the second time since 1995 to have a Ferrari without a world champion (the other year was 2007, when Schumacher wasn't interested in racing next to Raikkonen)

For the first time in years, RedBull has the least options. Short term they have Verstappen and that's it. If Verstappen leaves for Mercedes in 2021, they will be shopping outside the RedBull well for the first time since they got Webber from Williams. Could be a return of Vettel or Ricciardo to RedBull.

Bold prediction for 2021 (so not 2020)

Mercedes: Hamilton - Verstappen
Ferrari: Leclerc - Hulkenberg
RedBull: Vettel - Kvyat
Renault: Ricciardo - Ocon
McLaren: Bottas - Norris

Manoah2u
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Manoah2u » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:18 pm

Ocon is history already. Everybody's forgetting him. He'll race in WTC, LM or perhaps go to Indy next year. He'll realise sooner or later.
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

Manoah2u
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Manoah2u » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:34 pm

Phil wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:29 pm
Forget Vettel, what about Gasly?
Gasly is going to get replaced by either Kvyat or Albon, and i'm thinking Albon.
Esteban back to Toro Rosso alongside Kvyat. OR, another rookie from the RB camp
is going to go and take Albon's seat.

RB is probably preparing for a possible Verstappen leave. They're going to have to have
a seat for a top driver. Vettel is history, won't happen. Hamilton won't go there.
Bottas will stay at Mercedes or go to Renault to replace Hulkenberg if Kubica doesn't.
So Bottas won't end up at RedBull, i don't think that combo will work either.
Bottas isn't a RB guy by any means.

So who? well, there's really nobody left. They're in a seriously difficult situation after
Ricciardo's departure, as now there's just 1 talent left and quite frankly, no other talent
around that would be remotely interested in a redbull seat right now.
they're not competing for the win like last year, so, it's a pickle.
They must do everything they can to keep Max.
Gasly is not cut for the job, that much is clear. He's above mediocre at best.
Kvyat is far, far far more talented and they'd be wise to put him in there instead,
but, as mentioned before, Albon is putting quite some stellar performances and is really
surprisingly good. Definately better than Gasly. Problem is, he's too much of a rookie,
and thus the pressure of the mothership is quite a danger in itself.
Kvyat even struggled before, which is, i believe, the only reason that Helmut hasn't
switched Gasly with Kvyat yet.

I do believe Mercedes, despite Bottas being a perfect driver for them still, despite underperforming
in Canada, which, imho, is exactly why he's not going to be WDC ever - and a perfect 'buddy cop' for
Hamilton - is looking for a replacement for either Hamilton or Bottas.

There is nobody out there better than Verstappen to take aboard, and if they're smart, they need to
snatch him before Ferrari does. There's a good chance that Ferrari is thinking 2021 and investing,
and Verstappen wants to be WDC. It's questionable whether RB is going to provide Max a WDC capable
car, and as proven for multiple years now, both Mercedes and Ferrari are the only teams up there.
The engine formula is not going to change, so it would be wise to go for one of both.

Mercedes has been insanely dominant, and to be frank, it would do their image good if Verstappen would
come aboard and become the new WDC. It would lose it's 'boring' image that is starting to grow with every
Hamilton win. I'm sure Lewis also gets less 'motivated'. And i'm sure Lewis doesn't want to be in the same team
as Verstappen as if he gets beaten, it would damage his dominative reputation right now. So he'd have a go
at Ferrari i'm sure and either do an Alonso and Vettel, or, be actually the one, that gets WDC with Ferrari again.

Anyway, ask me, Verstappen in a Mercedes vs Hamilton in a Ferrari, would be, imho, the most thrilling thing to see.
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

izzy
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by izzy » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:44 pm

Jolle wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:44 pm

Bold prediction for 2021 (so not 2020)

Mercedes: Hamilton - Verstappen
Ferrari: Leclerc - Hulkenberg
RedBull: Vettel - Kvyat
Renault: Ricciardo - Ocon
McLaren: Bottas - Norris
yes good thoughts. And 2021 i agree. For me, Lewis will be 36 in 2021, it'll be now or never to drive for the Scuderia that he's talked to Toto about even, and Charles is relatively sane. That'll be the the hot pairing =P~ and drive the rest...

Ferrari: Hamilton + LeClerc
Mercedes: Verstappen + Russell or Bottas
Redbull: Albon + Kvyat (Seb is out of F1, then yes they're a bit stuck as you say)
Renault: Hulk + Ricciardo (right level already)
McLaren: Sainz + Norris (right level already)

let's see, whoever's right it should be worth watching :D

Big Tea
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Big Tea » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:47 pm

I would really love to see a Vettel - Hamilton line up at Mercedes. Hoping for a return to the Rosberg Hamilton battles of past years more than anything else as it looks like it will take more than rule tweaks to unseat Mercedes and Ferrari seem to not want to get involved these days.

Looking forward, as drivers must, it seems Max will not be staying at RBR, so there is an option (ignoring contracts) for either Vettel or Danny Ric to return, as 'things have changed' there, or look very likely to. I do not see them directly fighting with Merc next year, but it may be on the horizon.
One test is worth a thousand expert opinions

izzy
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by izzy » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:49 pm

Manoah2u wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:34 pm

Anyway, ask me, Verstappen in a Mercedes vs Hamilton in a Ferrari, would be, imho, the most thrilling thing to see.
who could possibly argue with that? \:D/ \:D/

Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Phil » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:26 pm

While I agree that Verstappen to Mercedes will be a possibility in the future, I have my doubts over how soon it'll happen - or more so, I think it will be dependent on Hamilton. If Hamilton commits to Mercedes beyond 2021, it might also make the Mercedes seat less desirable for Verstappen and at the same time, Verstappen a less desirable option for Mercedes. One might think Verstappen would not mind taking on 'the best' - but I'm not so sure about that. But sure, RedBull being less than competitive will of course make a Mercedes seat (assuming if offered) more enticing for sure.

But yes, much of RedBull's future will depend on their ability to secure a first rate driver. Undoubtedly Verstappen is that, so I think RedBull will pay if necessary to keep him there. If they can't - I'd probably consider approaching Ocon while he is out of the sport and waiting for a seat...
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Manoah2u
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Manoah2u » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:39 pm

Ocon is yesterday's news. he's history.
He's definately not bad, he's pretty fast, but critically, he's a fire hazard. He clinges more than once with his teammates,
he is arrogant, and he doesn't bring anything to the table really spectacular. He's not Verstappen, Hamilton, LeClerc, Vettel level,
He's out of F1 for a year now and there are plenty other capable drivers around, with any potentially interesting seats filled.

There's no way in life that Mercedes would concider replacing loyal, Toto Wolff shaped and formed protegé and trusty companion
who is also quite particularly fast and capable Bottas. He might be as fast or even faster than Rosberg but he's missing that 'agression',
and as such, deep 'fighter spirit' and doesnt bite as deep as Rosberg does for example, which makes him much more of a second driver,
and thus more of a 'cheerleader'. Look at Merc's results, he's perfect combination with Hamilton. And quite frankly, that would work
with Max too, even though i don't think Valterri would stay that long in such a case.

Ocon would be hazardous as he's much much much more of a hothead than Nico and wouldn't work as much as of a teamplayer as
both Nico and Bottas really did or do. He also is a bit of a loose cannon on the track so he's also much more of a crash risk.
So honestly, i fully doubt Ocon will ever get a Mercedes seat.

He was ditched at force india, so there's no room there, and williams is too slow. The only way for ocon is Renault. that's it.

I'd see Russell replace Bottas before ocon ever does, as Russell is much more managable and controlled, perhaps not as fast as Ocon though,
but i concider him Bottas 2.0 version: British. Not in 2020 though, perhaps by 2021 or 2022.

Again, Ocon is out or if Renault has interest, he might come aboard. Surprise entry would be through Haas, which is a small possibility.

I don't expect much of any to change in 2020 to be honest. 2021 is a different story.
But 2020, i expect Ham to stay, Bot to stay, VET to stay, LeClerc to stay, Daniel to stay, i do foresee a change at Hulkenberg's seat.
Mclaren will stay the same, RedBull might see Gasly get dumped and Albon in his place. Kvyat to stay at Toro Rosso and another 'junior' driver gets in at Toro rosso.
Haas probably will keep Magnussen, Grosjean might be replaced. I'd hope for Kubica to be honest. Otherwise we might see young Fittipaldi replace him.
Alfa Romeo will stay the same i'd think, Giovanazzi might get replaced by Fittipaldi though.
Kubica will either move to another team, leave, or stay with Williams, even though i expect Mazepin there next year.
Russell will stay obviously and nothing will change at Force India either.

So 'biggest' changes next year i'd think would be the seats of Gasly and Hulk.
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

djos
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by djos » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:54 pm

I'd take Ocon over Bottas or Checo any day of the week. He's fast, he's hungry, he's consistent and he's not a loose canon like Checo.
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Phil » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:29 am

I cant see Mercedes ditching/abandoning Ocon just yet. Bottas will not ‘lead’ that team, so if/once Hamilton leaves, they will need someone. Max might be a probable plan, but not a sure thing or guarantee if RedBull build a championship contender, is offered the deal of a century... he could stay. He is still young and has a lot of time. Mercedes will want to keep their options open and from a negotiation point of view, Ocon is perfect.

Still, the longer he stays out of F1, the less that will be likely.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Godius
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Godius » Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:43 pm

Phil wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:29 am
I cant see Mercedes ditching/abandoning Ocon just yet. Bottas will not ‘lead’ that team, so if/once Hamilton leaves, they will need someone. Max might be a probable plan, but not a sure thing or guarantee if RedBull build a championship contender, is offered the deal of a century... he could stay. He is still young and has a lot of time. Mercedes will want to keep their options open and from a negotiation point of view, Ocon is perfect.

Still, the longer he stays out of F1, the less that will be likely.
Ocon was not really a stable factor at his time with Force India. Although he was quick he also trew away many points for the team by crashing or taking out his own team mate. If he wasn't such a hazardous driver, he would have been racing this year next to Hamilton for sure.

Manoah2u
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Manoah2u » Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:24 pm

djos wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:54 pm
loose canon like Checo.
Checo is anyting but a loose cannon #-o

Ocon proved he's exactly that in the extremely short time he was in F1.
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

NL_Fer
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by NL_Fer » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:28 pm

How can someone suspect Russell is not quick? We all see Norris as fast, but Russell was better/faster in F2. Russel is beating Kubica, but we assume Kubica is to slow. Maybe he is the real deal and we are looking at a Verstappen/Russell (Merc) vs Hamilton/Leclerc (Scud)