ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Breaking news, useful data or technical highlights or vehicles that are not meant to race. You can post commercial vehicle news or developments here.
Please post topics on racing variants in "other racing categories".
Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
656
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 7:37 pm

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

nzjrs wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:57 am
Just_a_fan wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:56 am
Edax wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:10 am

Didn’t realize leasing was big in the UK. That might make a difference. Here people buy cars and drive them for 5-10 years.
It's the only way most people can afford to drive new cars regularly, especially the more luxurious/premium makes.

I tend to buy second hand at about 50k miles and then add 100k miles before changing. At least for the last two or three, anyway. But at 20k+ miles a year that gets me a change every 4-5 years.
There must be objective statistics for this, but my subjective impression upon moving to the UK was how old the average car was compared to Austria/Germany. Maybe the distribution is different?
Yes, lots of older cars. The point was that new cars tend to be on PCP deals in the UK because people can't afford £40k, £50k, £60k or more for the car they want.

The rest of us just buy them when they've lost a big chunk through depreciation.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

User avatar
Andres125sx
357
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:15 am
Location: Madrid, Spain

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

Greg Locock wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:33 pm
Sorry andres, your propaganda graph is misleading. The main growth in electricity generation is in fossil fuels. Renewables aren't even keeping up with the increase in demand, never mind making inroads into fossil fuels.Late edit - I found a better chart, FFs peak by 2030 if this is right.

https://www.pv-tech.org/images/made/ass ... _451_s.png

https://www.pv-tech.org/images/made/ass ... _451_s.png
At least my propaganda graph had a link, not just a picture with no source like yours :lol: And your words don´t even match the picture, wich shows a flat fossil fuels electricity generation and a exponetial grow in solar and wind. And that´s even with an old graph with that line at 2017 wich don´t show last years increase in solar and wind.

Anycase the discussion was about electricity price wich is reduced with self-production (solar), not any debate about fossils vs renewables. My graph was just an evidence of the exponential increase in PV energy wich will reduce both the price of electricity for those useres, and the electricity demand of public infrastructure.

nzjrs
nzjrs
93
Joined: Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:21 am
Location: Austria

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

henry wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:37 pm
nzjrs wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:57 am


There must be objective statistics for this, but my subjective impression upon moving to the UK was how old the average car was compared to Austria/Germany. Maybe the distribution is different?
Average age 8yrs
Average age at scrappage 14 years.
Interesting, thanks!

Jolle
Jolle
204
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:58 pm
Location: Dordrecht

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

Boring and uninteresting cars make up almost all sales. So, if EV is making cars even more bland, big sales ahead!

sosic2121
sosic2121
20
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:14 am

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:47 pm
PV panels and EVs are a perfect match, the expensive part of installing renewables on your property are the batteries, they increase the pay off time significantly. You can instal just some PV panels and sell the electricity you don´t use, but the price companies offer is absurdly low so the pay off time is also high. But if you own an EV just with the PV panels you can use all the electricity produced so your demand is reduced (reducing your bill of electricity at normal price) and the panels are paid off faster
Only downside is that usually you charge EV during night.

I believe nuclear is the only option.

Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
656
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 7:37 pm

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

sosic2121 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:53 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:47 pm
PV panels and EVs are a perfect match, the expensive part of installing renewables on your property are the batteries, they increase the pay off time significantly. You can instal just some PV panels and sell the electricity you don´t use, but the price companies offer is absurdly low so the pay off time is also high. But if you own an EV just with the PV panels you can use all the electricity produced so your demand is reduced (reducing your bill of electricity at normal price) and the panels are paid off faster
Only downside is that usually you charge EV during night.

I believe nuclear is the only option.
I agree that nuclear has a part to play in a proper mix of energy sources. Sadly, the fear mongers will end up winning out and we'll lose this excellent energy source to history.

EVs are generally charged at night but there are domestic storage options such as the Tesla Powerwall that allow the day's solar to be used to charge, in part, the car. Not enough for a full range charge, of course, and it's unlikely that anyone other than a tiny number would ever be able to do that (You'd need several Powerwalls and an awful lot of PV).

Powerwall is 13.5kWh capacity. And delivers 5kW continuous (7kW peak)
https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/powerwall

Average EV capcity is 60kWh
https://ev-database.uk/cheatsheet/useab ... ectric-car

So an average EV is going to need 5 Powerwalls charged up from PV during the day to charge the EV overnight. And that's assuming you can get the energy out of the Powerwall stack and in to the car in the time available (I have no idea about that)

Average UK PV install is 3-4kW. A 3kW install will give, in the UK, about 22kWh in July, dropping to about 3.6kWh in December.
https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/solar-p ... -do-i-need

So to charge our average EV, we'd need a significantly larger array than could be fitted on almost any UK house roof. Run a big-battery car such as a Tesla and you're going to need 50% more than the already huge amount that the average EV would require (Teslas are about 95kWh according to the link above)

And that's forgetting that the house uses electricity too so you don't get to use all of the PV-generated electricity to charge your EV unless you set it up specifically to do that.

Better to use PV to charge a battery during the day and then run the house on that in the evening, whilst charging the EV from the grid during the traditionally "low demand" period. The grid can handle that - say 20 million EVs with 60kWh batteries requires 1.2GWh. The grid demand varies between 20+GW and 40+GW over a 24 hour period with several hours at the lower end, so there's capacity there.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

That's all from a UK perspective, of course, and other countries with much more sunshine might be able to make it work for part of the year, even if not every day of the year.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Ferry
Ferry
9
Joined: Sat Mar 24, 2012 2:43 pm

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

Just_a_fan wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:11 pm
Powerwall is 13.5kWh capacity. And delivers 5kW continuous (7kW peak)
https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/powerwall

Average EV capcity is 60kWh
https://ev-database.uk/cheatsheet/useab ... ectric-car

So an average EV is going to need 5 Powerwalls charged up from PV during the day to charge the EV overnight.
If you spend 60 kWh/day you drive quite a lot. My i3 can drive 500 km with that amount of energy. Let's say a bigger car can drive 300 km. Still a lot. Around 4-5 hours of driving around here. Way too much every day. 69.000 km/year with 230 working days.
Remember, you only have to charge up what you will be missing on you next trip. And the battery is seldom empty when you start charging. Your math is correct, but it's not a realistic scenario.
Ideally the car should be charged at work, where it's stationary for 8-10 hours during daylight.

Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
656
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 7:37 pm

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

Ferry wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:17 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:11 pm
Powerwall is 13.5kWh capacity. And delivers 5kW continuous (7kW peak)
https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/powerwall

Average EV capcity is 60kWh
https://ev-database.uk/cheatsheet/useab ... ectric-car

So an average EV is going to need 5 Powerwalls charged up from PV during the day to charge the EV overnight.
If you spend 60 kWh/day you drive quite a lot. My i3 can drive 500 km with that amount of energy. Let's say a bigger car can drive 300 km. Still a lot. Around 4-5 hours of driving around here. Way too much every day. 69.000 km/year with 230 working days.
Remember, you only have to charge up what you will be missing on you next trip. And the battery is seldom empty when you start charging. Your math is correct, but it's not a realistic scenario.
Ideally the car should be charged at work, where it's stationary for 8-10 hours during daylight.
For three years I used to do at least 150 miles (240km) a day. These days I do some longer days (I've done 200 miles in a day for work in the last few months) but often 100 miles (160km) and I'm often out on the road visiting clients for the day, with 3 or 4 hours of the day actually driving the car). I've just put tomorrow's itinerary in Google Map and it's saying tomorrow is 120 miles (c.190km) and just over 3 hours driving. That's a typical day at the moment.

Not a typical usage for many, admittedly, but also not unusual. In the UK there are still a good number of people that commute 200 mile (320km) round trips (100 miles each way). If they can find somewhere to charge when at work, that's ok. If not, they'd be charging the car entirely at home. Of course, in an i3 they wouldn't get home unless they'd found a charger at work as it doesn't have a 200 mile range.

For lots of people that only do a few dozen miles a day, they'd probably be able to charge some of that from their PV and a battery storage but they'd still then not be able to use the PV / battery storage for running household items.

If someone wants to charge a car from domestic PV alone, they either need a lot of PV or they need to be doing a very small number of miles each trip. In which case they'd be better off using a different form of transport in the first place (from an environmental perspective).

We're looking at adding PV here along with a solar thermal panel to heat some water. I reckon doing that and having a battery is the better option. We can then use some of the PV-derived electricity during the day (base load such as fridge, freezer, etc. plus my home office) with excess going in to a battery to use in the evening. Just checked our smart meter and we're currently using about 400W (about 300W during the day) - lights, TV, base load, my home office - and will have used about 9kWh over the whole 24 hour period. This is about the median figure for the UK and equates to about 3,000kWh per year. It'll be a bit less over the year than 9 x 365 because 9kWh / day is our "winter" figure - the sun set at about 4pm today so we've had lights on for a good while now. In summer, lights might not go on until 9pm or even later. Even though we're an LED household, the lights still add up over time.

Anyway, all of that means that I reckon we can run a reasonable portion of the year near enough "off grid" for electrical demand (that is, the summer months). Luckily, we're not hugely greedy with our electricity and generally only have things on that need to be on - no kids here leaving everything switched on! :lol:

What's interesting playing around with the figures is data sources. I've revisited a site I referenced in an earlier post and followed the link for the daily sunshine hours they quote. And unsurprisingly, they've picked a sunny year for their figures (I wondered why an article written this month used 2018's sunny day figures rather than 2019). 2018 was a good year if you're selling PV. 2019 a less good year, 2017 a rubbish year. Playing with the figures in a spreadsheet, the difference between using the 2018 figures quoted in the article and the average figures for 2001-2020 is notable. For example, they quote July as being 8.7 hours/day of sun. The average over 2001-2020 is 6.45 hours/day of sun. That gives you 16kWh for the day instead of the 22kWh they suggest. That's a big difference, especially if someone is wanting to use PV to help charge a car, for example.

Of course, one would hope that people looking to do this wouldn't take the word of one web site, but even so, it's a bit naughty and doesn't, in my opinion, help the cause of encouraging PV uptake.

As mentioned previously, I think using PV and a battery to run the house with car charged from the grid overnight is the best balance. At least it means that if there's a power cut you've got the option of using the battery to run the house rather than having Joules locked up in the car battery and being unable to access them whilst you sit in the dark.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

User avatar
Andres125sx
357
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:15 am
Location: Madrid, Spain

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

sosic2121 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:53 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:47 pm
PV panels and EVs are a perfect match, the expensive part of installing renewables on your property are the batteries, they increase the pay off time significantly. You can instal just some PV panels and sell the electricity you don´t use, but the price companies offer is absurdly low so the pay off time is also high. But if you own an EV just with the PV panels you can use all the electricity produced so your demand is reduced (reducing your bill of electricity at normal price) and the panels are paid off faster
Only downside is that usually you charge EV during night.

I believe nuclear is the only option.
Nowadays, and only on week days, and only for people who work outside home for the whole day. Now think about weekends or your second battery or second EV. Instead of throwing the old battery to the landfill as EV haters assume (or manually dismantling the battery wich would be costly), think about using that old battery for your self-producing instalation... the battery will be good for that for a lot more years than it was good for the EV, it´s discharge capacity what is reduced with time, not capacity, so even when the battery is not good enough for the car it will still be good for your home for lots of years.


Nuclear is the only option for a day-night switch, if we want to get rid of coal and petrol plants tomorrow and be able to feed everything with clean electricity then nuclear is the only option. But that´s not real, the switch will take decades, and meanwhile everything will be slowly adapting, both infraestructure and ourselves

sosic2121
sosic2121
20
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:14 am

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

Andres125sx wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:06 am
sosic2121 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:53 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:47 pm
PV panels and EVs are a perfect match, the expensive part of installing renewables on your property are the batteries, they increase the pay off time significantly. You can instal just some PV panels and sell the electricity you don´t use, but the price companies offer is absurdly low so the pay off time is also high. But if you own an EV just with the PV panels you can use all the electricity produced so your demand is reduced (reducing your bill of electricity at normal price) and the panels are paid off faster
Only downside is that usually you charge EV during night.

I believe nuclear is the only option.
Nowadays, and only on week days, and only for people who work outside home for the whole day. Now think about weekends or your second battery or second EV. Instead of throwing the old battery to the landfill as EV haters assume (or manually dismantling the battery wich would be costly), think about using that old battery for your self-producing instalation... the battery will be good for that for a lot more years than it was good for the EV, it´s discharge capacity what is reduced with time, not capacity, so even when the battery is not good enough for the car it will still be good for your home for lots of years.


Nuclear is the only option for a day-night switch, if we want to get rid of coal and petrol plants tomorrow and be able to feed everything with clean electricity then nuclear is the only option. But that´s not real, the switch will take decades, and meanwhile everything will be slowly adapting, both infraestructure and ourselves
While I agree that it's possible to utilise old EV batteries as you suggest, I highly doubt it would be the practice due to our consumeristic nature.

AFAIK Germany replaced some their nuclear power with sun/solar and their co2 increased.
I think more should be invested in nuclear, especially Thorium. Shame nuclear has such a bad reputation.

User avatar
Big Tea
137
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 7:57 pm

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

BTW, should add it is 'fossil fuel ' banned not ICE, so possibly a synthetic would still be allowed?
We are standing on the shoulders of Giants. So watch your feet.

Jolle
Jolle
204
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:58 pm
Location: Dordrecht

Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

Post

Old EV batteries are already being used in places where high peak power is needed, like rock concerts. The big amps that the bass drum needs is so enormous compared to the average use, that a big batch of old EV batteries is used. Power on this scale you pay a whole lot more for this peak power.

The more we switch to solar and especially wind, local “overflow/dampener“ made from old EV’s would make it so much easier and flexible.