Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 08 Mar 2020, 20:37
What is a BEV
Bloody Electric Vehicles.
Some people will say it means a Battery Electric Vehicle, but they're just fake news hippies.
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 08 Mar 2020, 21:09
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 08 Mar 2020, 22:27
More like "all [...] hypercars are sold out"... immediately after or even before they get announced ...hehe
Germany had only 117k 'grant applications' for EV subsidies total ... 14k in 2020 so far (out of ~500k new cars, which puts them at ~3% of all car sales)
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 08 Mar 2020, 22:44
yes it looks like hypercar buyers aren't necessarily too bothered about the noise after all! Well of course you can hear the hifi a LOT better
3%, is about the same in the UK. I think that's the whole supply tho, and just as well really or the infrastructure would melt at this point
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 08 Mar 2020, 23:18
Most buyers don't care about the noise because those things will never get driven most of the time, unfortunately.
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 09 Mar 2020, 00:36
Which part of the infrastructure do you think would melt?
Let’s say we end up with 50000 new BEV. Average U.K. car mileage is 100000 that’s at most 4 MWh per vehicle. If each car charges every night that’s 10kWh a night, 3 hours charging. That’s 200000 MWh/yr additional generation needed or a 0.06% increase.
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 09 Mar 2020, 00:51
well i was going off some general nightmare scenario fretting tbh more than any particular numbers, but with 2.3m new cars 3% is 69k. Anyway i think it's true that they'll have to upgrade the electricity infrastructure by the time we've all gone electric, so it's not a bad thing it's happening gradually. And also of course we need the colossal investment to find some better battery technology, and that needs sales but gradual toohenry wrote: ↑09 Mar 2020, 00:36Which part of the infrastructure do you think would melt?
Let’s say we end up with 50000 new BEV. Average U.K. car mileage is 100000 that’s at most 4 MWh per vehicle. If each car charges every night that’s 10kWh a night, 3 hours charging. That’s 200000 MWh/yr additional generation needed or a 0.06% increase.
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 09 Mar 2020, 09:00
And that´s ignoring self-production increases, wich will increase dramatically in next yearshenry wrote: ↑09 Mar 2020, 00:36Which part of the infrastructure do you think would melt?
Let’s say we end up with 50000 new BEV. Average U.K. car mileage is 100000 that’s at most 4 MWh per vehicle. If each car charges every night that’s 10kWh a night, 3 hours charging. That’s 200000 MWh/yr additional generation needed or a 0.06% increase.
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 09 Mar 2020, 10:19
A minor point but I don’t think we’re going to see 2.3m cars sold this year nearer to 2 million. I was doing a bit of envelope maths. For instance I also used 400 days in the year and the actual yearly mileage is more like 8400. Given the uncertainties in the situation it gets us to the ball park.izzy wrote: ↑09 Mar 2020, 00:51well i was going off some general nightmare scenario fretting tbh more than any particular numbers, but with 2.3m new cars 3% is 69k. Anyway i think it's true that they'll have to upgrade the electricity infrastructure by the time we've all gone electric, so it's not a bad thing it's happening gradually. And also of course we need the colossal investment to find some better battery technology, and that needs sales but gradual toohenry wrote: ↑09 Mar 2020, 00:36Which part of the infrastructure do you think would melt?
Let’s say we end up with 50000 new BEV. Average U.K. car mileage is 100000 that’s at most 4 MWh per vehicle. If each car charges every night that’s 10kWh a night, 3 hours charging. That’s 200000 MWh/yr additional generation needed or a 0.06% increase.
Sure there will be a need for more electricity generation. But we’re not going to melt down any time soon. At the 40% growth rate I used in 2032 the BEV fleet would be 7m using 5% of current installed generation capacity. Building the charging point infrastructure looks like it’s a more difficult task.
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 09 Mar 2020, 10:55
Yes i was thinking all the infrastructure really, not just generation, houses and charging points as you say, so 3% isn't really a disappointing start to BEVs afaic, and enough batteries is an issue alreadyhenry wrote: ↑09 Mar 2020, 10:19A minor point but I don’t think we’re going to see 2.3m cars sold this year nearer to 2 million. I was doing a bit of envelope maths. For instance I also used 400 days in the year and the actual yearly mileage is more like 8400. Given the uncertainties in the situation it gets us to the ball park.
Sure there will be a need for more electricity generation. But we’re not going to melt down any time soon. At the 40% growth rate I used in 2032 the BEV fleet would be 7m using 5% of current installed generation capacity. Building the charging point infrastructure looks like it’s a more difficult task.
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 10 Mar 2020, 00:22
There would also be a slight 'dividend' of returns from refineries and petrol service industry, which is big enough not to be ignoredhenry wrote: ↑09 Mar 2020, 10:19A minor point but I don’t think we’re going to see 2.3m cars sold this year nearer to 2 million. I was doing a bit of envelope maths. For instance I also used 400 days in the year and the actual yearly mileage is more like 8400. Given the uncertainties in the situation it gets us to the ball park.izzy wrote: ↑09 Mar 2020, 00:51well i was going off some general nightmare scenario fretting tbh more than any particular numbers, but with 2.3m new cars 3% is 69k. Anyway i think it's true that they'll have to upgrade the electricity infrastructure by the time we've all gone electric, so it's not a bad thing it's happening gradually. And also of course we need the colossal investment to find some better battery technology, and that needs sales but gradual toohenry wrote: ↑09 Mar 2020, 00:36
Which part of the infrastructure do you think would melt?
Let’s say we end up with 50000 new BEV. Average U.K. car mileage is 100000 that’s at most 4 MWh per vehicle. If each car charges every night that’s 10kWh a night, 3 hours charging. That’s 200000 MWh/yr additional generation needed or a 0.06% increase.
Sure there will be a need for more electricity generation. But we’re not going to melt down any time soon. At the 40% growth rate I used in 2032 the BEV fleet would be 7m using 5% of current installed generation capacity. Building the charging point infrastructure looks like it’s a more difficult task.
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 10 Mar 2020, 02:50
Honda's just announced they are withdrawing their BEV from the USA market, while GM have emphasised their electric future. Icebergs are jostling around in strange directions.
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 10 Mar 2020, 03:34
If oil stays this low priced now that OPEC+ has fractured on policy, electric will get back burner'ed again.
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 10 Mar 2020, 07:56
Australia is certainly making a lot of noises around hydrogen, which does seem at odds with the rest of the world (outside of Toyota and Honda).
The problem for Australia is a significant component of their economy is predicated on digging minerals out of the ground. Perhaps the government sees hydrogen as a replacement industry for coal and natural gas extraction?
The tech seems a bit too nascent to commit to it (IMO).
The problem for Australia is a significant component of their economy is predicated on digging minerals out of the ground. Perhaps the government sees hydrogen as a replacement industry for coal and natural gas extraction?
The tech seems a bit too nascent to commit to it (IMO).
Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?
Posted: 10 Mar 2020, 10:12
No politics, please. Those last posts (removed) were bound to offend many people, there are always many of the opposite opinion.