hollus wrote:For the sake of mathematical correctness: 1.08 ^ 9 = 1.999. So that would correspond to a doubling every 9 years, not 14.
Well, that´s the margin for 5-8%, if 8% every 9 years, if 5% 14 years (1.9799)
hollus wrote:Andres, you will probably agree that improvement by this amount (69300%) since the 1930 is about right, so Flyin's numbers seem to hold on long term and across technologies too...
Of course I never disagreed with that. I only said that trend doesn´t have to hold during future years because circumstances have changed a lot. In 30´s batteries were barely used in general, while today everybody use batteries, some people many of them. That changes completely manufacturers view about how profitable may be investing on them
hollus wrote:My personal take on this: Limit road speeds to 120km/h, make electric cars that have only 2 passengers (OK, 3 for people with kids), and you have electric cars that cover 95% of the needs of 95% of the people 95% of the time, either now of with the next doubling. 90% of what a typical petrol car can do right now (comfort, acceleration rate, top speed, max capacity, max range) is simply superfluous most of the time (but carried along at all times). For the few times when you need more, a rental car would do. I know, I am killing all the fun in cars, but maybe I am keeping the function?
You´ve just described current situation Hollus
120km/h is typical speed limit on most countries, if you want a 2 passengers car there´s the Twizy, or if you need a little more space the Zoe, both from Renault. I don´t have any interest with Renault, well my current car is Renault but I hate it

, I´m talking about these two examples because I see them on roads
frequently. I think they are the most extended EVs right now, at least around here
hollus wrote:Yeah, maybe the solution is no cars at all. In many European cities with a good transit system, trains+segway is all you need (for personal transport, goods are a different story). The Segway is the ultimate "last mile" vehicle. If only segways didn't look that weird...
P.S. imagine what a Segway could do with next gen batteries!
Into the city, sure, no cars at all, but there´s another option I´d enjoy much better than a segway, electric bikes, IMO best option to move around the city
For example, Bicicletto
This is a snobbish one, cost more than a car ($10k

), but you get the idea. With better batteries weight will be much more reasonable for a bike, and new batteries will be much cheaper too. They provide more range than enough to move around the city, you still can pedal if want/need for an extended range or simply to do some exercise, and they can be equiped with some basket or similar to carry a bag, document case, etc.
To me this is the future city vehicle, or at least it should, it´d promote some exercise wich is really necessary on modern world where we tend to be more and more sedentary