Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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bhall
bhall
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Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2006 8:26 pm

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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mbvinnie wrote:I thought it was widely acknowledged that Red Bull (Seb in particular) used the strategy as I described.
Can you clarify what you think their strategy is? How do the statistics agree with that?

I agree the original stats probably had bias in how they were presented, but they were still partially useful.
And it's still the most useful analysis so far on this thread in terms of a starting point.
The statistics submitted in this very thread support my claim. No driver was credited with more overtakes. So, because we know that the RB8 was the best car this year - validated by statistics known as "points" - we can conclude that no team/driver had to compensate for as many mistakes that left them further down the grid than they should have been.

(All of this is extreme sarcasm. It's just to show that statistics can mean whatever anyone wants them to mean. Hence, "...lies, damned lies, and statistics.")

Nando
Nando
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Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:30 am

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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mbvinnie wrote:To be fair to mnmracer, he has now received criticism for not including absolutely everything, and for not delving deeper to remove invalid passes. You can't have it both ways.

Most previous analysis of passing ability I have read in previous years has excluded 1st lap passes or looked at them separately.

My view is that you (Nando and mnmracer) are both clearly biased in favour of VET and ALO respectively and it is not helping the thread.
Alonso?

I´m biased towards Hamilton if anything and this is the first time i´ve spoke the word Hamilton in this thread.
(you would think my avatar blew my cover)
I´m not raining on his parade, i just asked if he could include lap 1, i can´t see why not since it´s not just starts that are counted but a full lap of several kilometers.

An example would be Vettel, let´s say he gets overtaken on lap 1 by 4 people, then during the laps after that he start reeling them in one by one because he has a faster car and is only driving up to the position he should have kept from the start.

What will be counted is not how he got overtaken on lap one but instead shows plenty of overtakes that count simply because it´s lap 2.
"Il Phenomeno" - The one they fear the most!

"2% of the world's population own 50% of the world's wealth."

mnmracer
mnmracer
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Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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Nando wrote:Could you please include lap 1 overtakes. Not all of them happen at the start.
My opinion is that you get a much better view on overtakes by including ALL of them except maybe lappers (blue flags) or people in pits etc.

It´s not important who wrote the statistics, i speak to you because you created the thread and you said you would include those overtakes if you got the data, which you did.

You really don´t have to though if you don´t want to. Just thought it would be interesting if you did.
No, I don't have the first lap data.
All you've posted is the sum of places gained and lost on lap 1, evident by the fact that Vettel, Webber and Grosjean are in the negative, while it's a fact all of them have overtaken on lap 1 at some point.

It does not tell me who overtook who and when, and under what circumstance (those stats likely include passing someone who crashed out). You know, the context.

CHT
CHT
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Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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Nando wrote:Position changes on lap 1

+1,7 - Alonso (+30 in total)
+1,0 - Massa (+20 in total)
+0,7 - Raikkonen (+14 in total)
+0,2 - Button (+4 in total)
+0,1 - Hamilton (+2 in total)


-0,7 - Vettel (-14 in total)
-1,1 - Webber (-23 in total)
-2.7 - Grosjean (-47 in total) (understandable lol)

Nonsense statistic really. If a driver who always qualify in front his statistic will always be poorer then one who have a strong car but qualify poorly.

mbvinnie
mbvinnie
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Joined: Mon May 17, 2010 11:01 am

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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bhallg2k wrote: (All of this is extreme sarcasm. It's just to show that statistics can mean whatever anyone wants them to mean. Hence, "...lies, damned lies, and statistics.")
This is clearly not true. Statistics have validity, they do not 'mean whatever anyone wants them to mean'.
Just because they are not perfectly objective in many situations does NOT mean they can be 100% dismissed in all situations.

Statistics used in a meaningful way often lead to useful conclusions and insights. You just have to be careful how you use them.
Like the scientists at CERN with the Higgs Boson particle etc - statistical probability is very meaningful for them.

mnmracer
mnmracer
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Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2011 10:41 pm

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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On a side-note (I'd love to get the lap 1 statistics);
It's funny that no matter when or where statistics are posted, it are always the people who have their perception shattered who are quick to dismiss it. I don't recall anyone calling bias when I revealed Hamilton to have the most misfortune half-way through the season, but when it doesn't fit some people's agenda's, they instantly dismiss it without bothering to substantiating anything.

Listen, rather than get your panties up in a knot, see the statistics and do with it what you want.
Ignore it if you're not interested in a different perception, or try to take from it what you want.
To seek a bias behind everything just because it doesn't fit your agenda is just sour grapes.

Nando
Nando
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Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:30 am

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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CHT wrote:Nonsense statistic really. If a driver who always qualify in front his statistic will always be poorer then one who have a strong car but qualify poorly.
No it won´t.
It´s not about where you start. it´s about if you can keep your position on lap 1 or not.

@mnmracer i´m sure you´ll find what you need at your site.
"Il Phenomeno" - The one they fear the most!

"2% of the world's population own 50% of the world's wealth."

Nando
Nando
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Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:30 am

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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mnmracer wrote:I don't recall anyone calling bias when I revealed Hamilton to have the most misfortune half-way through the season, but when it doesn't fit some people's agenda's, they instantly dismiss it without bothering to substantiating anything.
I bet if you decided what DNF´s you should count and which ones you should ignore then --- would hit the fan there too.

I would assume you counted all of them right?
"Il Phenomeno" - The one they fear the most!

"2% of the world's population own 50% of the world's wealth."

mbvinnie
mbvinnie
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Joined: Mon May 17, 2010 11:01 am

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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Nando wrote: Alonso?

I´m biased towards Hamilton if anything and this is the first time i´ve spoke the word Hamilton in this thread.
(you would think my avatar blew my cover)
I´m not raining on his parade, i just asked if he could include lap 1, i can´t see why not since it´s not just starts that are counted but a full lap of several kilometers.
You are clearly biased against VET then - better? Or against mnmracer? You are arguing with emotion.
(I was going off your name, not your avatar for being an 'Nando' fan)
Nando wrote:
An example would be Vettel, let´s say he gets overtaken on lap 1 by 4 people, then during the laps after that he start reeling them in one by one because he has a faster car and is only driving up to the position he should have kept from the start.

What will be counted is not how he got overtaken on lap one but instead shows plenty of overtakes that count simply because it´s lap 2.
Dropping down from your start position (which then leads to overtakes) is kinda the same thing as qualifying poorly in a quick race-car - and is one thing we do need to control for in both cases if we were to objectively analyze this.

However I still firmly believe that while start line launch is useful, it is not valid as a means of pure 'overtaking ability'. And that the number of launch passes would outweigh the number of other Lap 1 passes.
Thus, my preference would be to Add just the 'non-launch Lap 1' passes if possible, however if they are not available to exclude Lap 1 passes altogether as it would be a cleaner dataset. Not because it fits an outcome I want.
(I am OK to disagree on this - I don't have any proof)

Nando
Nando
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Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:30 am

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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mbvinnie wrote:You are clearly biased against VET then - better? Or against mnmracer? You are arguing with emotion.
(I was going off your name, not your avatar for being an 'Nando' fan)
You are free to put me in whatever folder you like, seeing as you fire off without thinking it doesn´t really matter what i say.

I get it, starts or the first complete lap is not something to count but DRS overtakes is.
It´s flawed statistics that was only posted because of Vettel´s nr1 fan.

I don´t care who comes out on top to be honest, i just think you can´t pick and choose what to put in the statistics.
Last edited by Nando on Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Il Phenomeno" - The one they fear the most!

"2% of the world's population own 50% of the world's wealth."

Cylinder
Cylinder
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Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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Stats can say anything, according to stats vettel overtook about 21 cars at Abu Dhabi, his fanboys tried to say this was proof he was a great racer, until you realise he overtook a bunch of caterhams and HRT and Marussias twice over, then the Torrso rossos just jumped out the way for him, then drivers infront like webber and massa crashed out infront of him or were pitted so he couldnt race them.

Stats can be manipulated to show all sorts, not really worth a big argument.

Hamilton is the best overtaker in the sport, followed by Alonso, that's my stat, the rest i dont care about.

mnmracer
mnmracer
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Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2011 10:41 pm

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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Nando wrote:@mnmracer i´m sure you´ll find what you need at your site.
Please do not try to deceit people into thinking that statement is true without providing evidence.
Seriously dude, resorting to lying?

Nando
Nando
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Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:30 am

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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mnmracer wrote:
Nando wrote:@mnmracer i´m sure you´ll find what you need at your site.
Please do not try to deceit people into thinking that statement is true without providing evidence.
Seriously dude, resorting to lying?
WTF are you talking about?
You have a site containing all the information you need, so i said "I´m sure you will find what you need at your site"
Your site = the site you took statistics from!
"Il Phenomeno" - The one they fear the most!

"2% of the world's population own 50% of the world's wealth."

mnmracer
mnmracer
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Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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Cylinder wrote:Stats can say anything, according to stats vettel overtook about 21 cars at Abu Dhabi, his fanboys tried to say this was proof he was a great racer, until you realise he overtook a bunch of caterhams and HRT and Marussias twice over, then the Torrso rossos just jumped out the way for him, then drivers infront like webber and massa crashed out infront of him or were pitted so he couldnt race them.

Stats can be manipulated to show all sorts, not really worth a big argument.

Hamilton is the best overtaker in the sport, followed by Alonso, that's my stat, the rest i dont care about.
Or you could just try and read...

Overtakes on the 5 top teams:
1. Sebastian Vettel - 17 on-track overtakes
2. Kimi Räikkönen - 16
3. Jenson Button - 14
4. Lewis Hamilton - 13
5. Felipe Massa - 12

You are clearly mixing up stat with personal opinion.

Nando
Nando
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Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:30 am

Re: Overtaking in 2012: statistics and analysis

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flawed stats. Stats that does not show the full picture.
"Il Phenomeno" - The one they fear the most!

"2% of the world's population own 50% of the world's wealth."