dans79 wrote:[

* Stopping on lap 4, turned the 3 stop strategy into a really long 2 stop strategy

there you have it.

let's say a complete pitstop cost about 28 seconds.

then 2 pitstops costs a total of 56 seconds

then 3 pitstops costs a total of 84 seconds

you lose this time regardless of what you do.

however, if new x-tires give you an advantage back of about 2 seconds per lap, then in 14 laps, the 3rd pitstop equals itself out.

so then, if you have a 60-lap race,

if you run a 2-stop strategy, then you need to stop at lap 20, and then on lap 40, to reach the 60 laps.

if you run a 3-stop strategy, then you need to stop at lap 15, then at lap 30, and then at lap 45 to reach the 60 laps.

if you instead do a pitstop at lap 4 instead of lap 15, you lose the benefit of tires that have more grip over 15 laps because the tires now fitted must run either 11 laps longer then intended, or the now fitted tires and the next tires each must run 5 1/2 laps longer then originally intended strategywise.

either way, you lose the benefit of 2 second faster pace thanks to grippier tires over a total of 11 laps, which means you lose 22 seconds. probably this is a slight over-estimate on loss of benefit through wear by running 5 1/2 laps more then intended, so let's just halve the benefit to 1 second, which still is 11 seconds in total.

result? to lose the race.

Vettel won with a 8 1/2 -second advantage. If Merc had held to the original tire strategy, then Lewis would have won with atleast a 2 1/2 second lead over Vettel, and thus had maintained the WIN.

i wonder why they chose to pit at the 4th lap instead of the 15th lap in this case.