F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
Post Reply
User avatar
Phil
66
Joined: 25 Sep 2012, 16:22
Contact:

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

ferkan wrote:Formula 1 is not staying the same though. Next year, new rules. Completely different aero rules apply, and while PUs stay the same that is no longer differentional factor with Mercedes and Ferrari. Plus, there is no more tokens for next year therefore everything will be pretty open. I actually think Merc will look to completely decimate field as early as possible. Not only because that would be brilliant closing to domination in 2014-2016 Formula 1, but also because as early they get maximum amount of points the earlier they can start to work on next years car.

Your reasoning might have applied last two years, but not now.
I am still yet to hear an even more convincing argument in why you'd want to show more than you have to.

PS: Yes, 2017 will shuffle the order a bit, but there's no guarantee that the 'headstart' that Mercedes has capitalized over since the V6T will not carry over in some form into 2017 and beyond as well. The chances are probably small, but that's precisely why, as the dominant team, you'd want to mask every potential you have.

If you apply that reasoning to the PU for instance; Right now, we have 4 different engine manufacturers pursuing 3-4 different design philosophies that have an impact on cooling, how much power can be achieved and somewhat also influences the aero of the car. Lets assume for a moment that Mercedes did get it right with their approach and that it's the design choice with the most potential. By not showing its true potential and keeping it close, the other manufacturers might be mistaken into believing that their design choices are competitive (or can be), or at least that any difference can be closed by other factors, like aero. Assuming that one design choice is the 'perfect solution' with the most potential, you wouldn't want others to realize that and pursuit the same design choices by copying you. Better to keep them on their design paths while hoping that they will never quite catch up.

The longer it takes them to realize that and catch up, the further and further you can make gains on your product and the bigger the headstart you have.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter

User avatar
dren
226
Joined: 03 Mar 2010, 14:14

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

Looks like we will have a closer championship this year. The Ferrari should challenge a bit more than it did last year. It still looks like Williams and Red Bull are not quite in the mix. The midfield looks to be pretty tight, though. I'm surprised the Renault is as 'good' as it is. I expected it to be worse than the Sauber.
Honda!

flickerf1
7
Joined: 29 Feb 2016, 00:52

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

Vasconia wrote:
godlameroso wrote:Tremendous improvement from Force India, biggest winners since last year by far.
FI seems strong every pre-season but then the lack of updates condemn them. It's a pity because its a time that surely knows to its "winter job".
Yeah, totally agree with you. They start of the season strongly, and then rarely bring updates later on in the first half of the season. Then, in the middle of it they bring a B-spec car and start consistently scoring points.
The Wicked + The Divine.

User avatar
Vasconia
6
Joined: 30 Aug 2012, 10:45
Location: Basque Country

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

flickerf1 wrote:
Vasconia wrote:
FI seems strong every pre-season but then the lack of updates condemn them. It's a pity because its a team that surely knows how to do its "winter job".
Yeah, totally agree with you. They start of the season strongly, and then rarely bring updates later on in the first half of the season. Then, in the middle of it they bring a B-spec car and start consistently scoring points.
Right! its true that they usually make a strong last part of the season. Their drivers are amongst my favourites so I hope they can score some good points and perhaps a podium!!

User avatar
Vasconia
6
Joined: 30 Aug 2012, 10:45
Location: Basque Country

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

dren wrote:Looks like we will have a closer championship this year. The Ferrari should challenge a bit more than it did last year. It still looks like Williams and Red Bull are not quite in the mix. The midfield looks to be pretty tight, though. I'm surprised the Renault is as 'good' as it is. I expected it to be worse than the Sauber.
I have the feeling that RB has more potential than we think, they seem pretty confident with this car.

flickerf1
7
Joined: 29 Feb 2016, 00:52

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

Vasconia wrote:
dren wrote:Looks like we will have a closer championship this year. The Ferrari should challenge a bit more than it did last year. It still looks like Williams and Red Bull are not quite in the mix. The midfield looks to be pretty tight, though. I'm surprised the Renault is as 'good' as it is. I expected it to be worse than the Sauber.
I have the feeling that RB has more potential than we think, they seem pretty confident with this car.
They definitely do. Dan seems optimistic about their chances this season: http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/red-b ... do-677787/
The Wicked + The Divine.

ferkan
31
Joined: 06 Apr 2015, 20:50

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

Phil wrote:
ferkan wrote:Formula 1 is not staying the same though. Next year, new rules. Completely different aero rules apply, and while PUs stay the same that is no longer differentional factor with Mercedes and Ferrari. Plus, there is no more tokens for next year therefore everything will be pretty open. I actually think Merc will look to completely decimate field as early as possible. Not only because that would be brilliant closing to domination in 2014-2016 Formula 1, but also because as early they get maximum amount of points the earlier they can start to work on next years car.

Your reasoning might have applied last two years, but not now.
I am still yet to hear an even more convincing argument in why you'd want to show more than you have to.

PS: Yes, 2017 will shuffle the order a bit, but there's no guarantee that the 'headstart' that Mercedes has capitalized over since the V6T will not carry over in some form into 2017 and beyond as well. The chances are probably small, but that's precisely why, as the dominant team, you'd want to mask every potential you have.

If you apply that reasoning to the PU for instance; Right now, we have 4 different engine manufacturers pursuing 3-4 different design philosophies that have an impact on cooling, how much power can be achieved and somewhat also influences the aero of the car. Lets assume for a moment that Mercedes did get it right with their approach and that it's the design choice with the most potential. By not showing its true potential and keeping it close, the other manufacturers might be mistaken into believing that their design choices are competitive (or can be), or at least that any difference can be closed by other factors, like aero. Assuming that one design choice is the 'perfect solution' with the most potential, you wouldn't want others to realize that and pursuit the same design choices by copying you. Better to keep them on their design paths while hoping that they will never quite catch up.

The longer it takes them to realize that and catch up, the further and further you can make gains on your product and the bigger the headstart you have.
You are reading to much into it. Does Merc still have something in the tank? Yes, they do, but so do other teams. But they are not running slowly, neither they are purposely sandbagging. They have done their race sim, it was fast and it turned alot heads (like when Rosberg posted 23'0'' time). That was until Ferrari posted similar race pace sim , but since Ferrari appears to be much closer that means Merc has to have much more in hand and that means they are going to push only when Ferrari comes close enough and then make big gap again. I don't buy that.

I think we have seen what Merc has. They still have nice advantage, especially on medium tires, but there is logical reason why Ferrari should be closer, like there was last year at the same time.

IMO you are giving far less credit to people working in F1 then they deserve. There are literally thousands of highly experienced and knowledgeable engineers working at these teams. Merc surely cannot make them all go into opposite direction with simple trick like you describe, I don't find that plausible at all.

Last 2 years of Mercedes domination can be described pretty easily without resorting to some perfect cooling/turbo arrangement. Not only because the same arrangement is used by their customers, that are even further of the pace then some teams with 60-70hp deficit on engine side, but also because current gap is pretty much expected when looking at 2 frontruners.

Mercedes put whole lot of money and time to dominate in V6 era of Formula. They nailed EVERY part of the car. Their aero is, alongside RBR, best in class. And RBR in their heyday had easily half a second over next best only on aero side, so there is no reason for Merc not to have similar gap. Add to that the fact that their engine is class leading and their chassis and suspension have proved to be top as well, then that gap is easily explained with saying that they did damn good job on entire car.

So yea, I don't expect Merc to hold on if they have big advantage. They will want to embarrass everyone if they can, thats who they are and thats what everyone else would do in their place. This is F1, if they have 1 second on the rest of the pack they will show it, put that into commercial and giggle like a school girls. Next year completely new rules, no tokens and there is really no point in playing cat and mouse.

User avatar
godlameroso
309
Joined: 16 Jan 2010, 21:27
Location: Miami FL

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

2013 Red Bull had .5 sec advantage at the last sector of some tracks. Korea and India come to mind.
Saishū kōnā

User avatar
dans79
267
Joined: 03 Mar 2013, 19:33
Location: USA

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

ferkan wrote:
So yea, I don't expect Merc to hold on if they have big advantage. They will want to embarrass everyone if they can, thats who they are and thats what everyone else would do in their place. This is F1, if they have 1 second on the rest of the pack they will show it, put that into commercial and giggle like a school girls. Next year completely new rules, no tokens and there is really no point in playing cat and mouse.
New to F1 aren't you?

No leading team with any brains will show 100% of their potential unless they absolutely have to. This sport is run by a senile old man and a bunch of cry babies, who will and have done everything in their power to knock a dominant team down .
Last edited by dans79 on 07 Mar 2016, 18:41, edited 1 time in total.
197 104 103 7

ferkan
31
Joined: 06 Apr 2015, 20:50

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

dans79 wrote:
ferkan wrote:
So yea, I don't expect Merc to hold on if they have big advantage. They will want to embarrass everyone if they can, thats who they are and thats what everyone else would do in their place. This is F1, if they have 1 second on the rest of the pack they will show it, put that into commercial and giggle like a school girls. Next year completely new rules, no tokens and there is really no point in playing cat and mouse.
New to F1 aren't you?

No leading team with any brains will show 100% of their potential unless they absolutely have to. This sport is run by a senile old man and a bunch of cry babies, who will and have done everything in their power to know a dominant team down .
So you think they didn't show their advantage last year in China, Monza, Belgium etc? They run as fast as they can run while having reliability in their mind. If you think they could go entire year on "strat mode 10" then maybe you are new to F1.

User avatar
dans79
267
Joined: 03 Mar 2013, 19:33
Location: USA

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

dans79 wrote: No leading team with any brains will show 100% of their potential unless they absolutely have to. This sport is run by a senile old man and a bunch of cry babies, who will and have done everything in their power to knock a dominant team down .
I bolded the important part for you.


ferkan wrote: So you think they didn't show their advantage last year in China, Monza, Belgium etc? They run as fast as they can run while having reliability in their mind.
The last few laps at Monza last year seems to say otherwise...........

lap 48, Peter Bonnington to Lewis Hamilton
So we need to open this gap right up. Do what we can you’ve got seven laps remaining. OK Lewis we can go strat mode three, we need to pull a gap. Don’t ask questions, just execute.
197 104 103 7

ferkan
31
Joined: 06 Apr 2015, 20:50

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

dans79 wrote:
dans79 wrote: No leading team with any brains will show 100% of their potential unless they absolutely have to. This sport is run by a senile old man and a bunch of cry babies, who will and have done everything in their power to knock a dominant team down .
I bolded the important part for you.


ferkan wrote: So you think they didn't show their advantage last year in China, Monza, Belgium etc? They run as fast as they can run while having reliability in their mind.
The last few laps at Monza last year seems to say otherwise...........

lap 48, Peter Bonnington to Lewis Hamilton
So we need to open this gap right up. Do what we can you’ve got seven laps remaining. OK Lewis we can go strat mode three, we need to pull a gap. Don’t ask questions, just execute.
It still doesn't change what I said, exactly the opposite. Because they heard pressure in tires could cost them race (at best 25 seconds) he needed to turn up the engine as much as it can and drive as fast as possible. But, does that mean he can use that mode for entire race? No. Does it mean his tires can go like that for entire race? No. Does that mean that W06 engine can hold on for 4 races driving in aggressive mode for entire race? No.

There is a reason Mercedes brought that new engine before deadline, to Monza of all places. And that was to show how far ahead of Ferrari they are. Remember, that new engine was supposed to bring updates so that they can use agressive mode for longer periods then the old one and thats exactly what happened. Lewis stormed from Vettel and had more then half a second a lap advantage, on pure power track.

User avatar
dren
226
Joined: 03 Mar 2010, 14:14

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

Vasconia wrote:
dren wrote:Looks like we will have a closer championship this year. The Ferrari should challenge a bit more than it did last year. It still looks like Williams and Red Bull are not quite in the mix. The midfield looks to be pretty tight, though. I'm surprised the Renault is as 'good' as it is. I expected it to be worse than the Sauber.
I have the feeling that RB has more potential than we think, they seem pretty confident with this car.
I think they will be fighting it out with Williams for 3rd place. DR seems to support that. We may see the oddball podium from Williams/RB throughout the year and possibly one from TR or FI early in the season.
Honda!

User avatar
nevill3
16
Joined: 11 Feb 2014, 21:31
Location: Monaco
Contact:

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

I love following the pre-season tests and always wish for a new interpretation to the rules that gives a team an obvious advantage. Apart from Mercedes at the start of the V6 era the last time that happened was when Brawn GP "invented" the double diffuser and romped away for a while, I remember reading an interview with JB and he said as soon as he drove the car he knew they had something special and winter testing that year confirmed it.

Red Bull have always hidden any new concepts as best they could at winter testing and often only unleashed their new concepts fully at the first GP. I remember McLaren failing miserably one year at winter testing and managed to turn things around by the first GP........This year will be a little different due to the short timespan between the end of testing and the start of the season.

I think Mercedes are still strong, Ferrari have gambled on a new aero, engine and gearbox configuration but look to have solved their old correlation problems and also look like they have gained, I have not heard any negative comments this year about Ferrari's handling and apex speeds, the rest of the field have improved too.

Who has made the most gains, personally I think McLaren, Manor and Torro Rosso have improved more than others around them but by how much only will become apparent in Australia.

I am looking forward to this years racing more than I did last year but it is a long season and the balance can and probably will change before the final GPs

Good luck to my favourite team (McLaren) and here's hoping for a three or four way battle for the drivers crown.
Sent from my Commodore PET in 1978

dot235
2
Joined: 11 Feb 2016, 11:59

Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Post

Phil wrote:
I feel you are asking the wrong question here. The question is not "what good is it to hide your true pace?" - it's rather "what good is it to show your true pace?" What advantage is there?

As long as the team can correlate the data between what they built in the factory and the simulation they ran and their on track performance, why show more than they need to?
Alright first of all you need to turn up the engine to make sure it won't go to flames during qualy.
So how do you hide your pace with EPU running max power?

a) You use different tyres.
And make it very easy for teams to figure out your true pace.

b) you fill up more fuel.
This obviously works to some extent, but you can't hide the amount of fuel you are having during race simulations etc. and you still need to complete some short stints to collect the data.

Now it's not extremely hard to figure out when the team is running with their EPU turned up (different sound etc) and when they are running low fuel. There are plenty of smart people who can calculate these things one by one and figure out your theoretical best lap time even if you didn't complete a single [low-fuel high power soft tyres] lap.

So you can fool the fans, but either way it's very hard to fool the competing teams (meaning hide 0.5s or more). So one could ask what's the point of extensively doing so in the first place? If you try too hard you will only hurt yourself by not collecting enough data.
And it's not like others will suddenly get 1 second quicker when the'll see how fast you are.

Post Reply