Can't see Lewis going anywhere, he's happy in the team and he's winning. I guess Ferrari could drive a dumper truck full of money up to his door, but other than ticking an emotional box of 'being a Ferrari driver' what else can they offer? If Lewis wants to beat Schumi's records, he stays put.
Matthew Carter (ex Lotus / Renault boss) was most insistent on Missed Apex last week that Ocon is a stick on for the second Merc seat. He's incredibly highly rated within the team. As is George Russell, who will presumably take Lewis' seat once he decides to retire.
Ferrari... Well. What does Vettel do, or, perhaps increasingly, what do they do with him? Does he still love what he does? Is his head still in the game? We could easily enter the summer break with him trailing the guy the team insisted was basically his number 2 back before the season started. Whether he wants to stay or not, is he worth the presumably very large salary if he's getting beaten by Charles and making mistakes all the time? If the team become confident that Charles is their best bet, why not find a cheaper guy to back him up? If they still aren't sure about Charles... I'm sure there's a Spaniard lurking in the shadows who'd jump in for a year or two until they are.
Red Bull, Max stays where he is. He can look at Seb's example as to why moving to Ferrari isn't necessarily a great idea. Unless Merc offers him a seat, he's in the best bet. As for a team mate, Red Bull's talent pool is near dry, if they want to stick with it, if Gasly continues his Silverstone form, he just might keep his seat, otherwise, Albon?
Renault, Dany Ric will be staying put, but the team seems unsure about Hulk. They'd love Ocon, but maybe they end up with Bottas.
Mclaren won't change.
Haas... Grosjean is done. Could see Perez taking that seat. Maybe KMag stays, or maybe they find a rookie.
Alfa, may as well stay the same unless Kimi has had enough. Schumi Jnr hasn't shown enough to get the step up yet.
Racing Point, Stroll, obviously, and, Latifi maybe? Russell if Merc decide Williams are a waste of his talents I guess.
As said Red Bull's talent pool is pretty much done, so, could be unchanged, or Gasly swaps with Albon. O'Ward, if he shows anything in Super Formula and manages to get a super licence, but I'm not sure either of those things will happen.
Williams will be lucky to keep Russell and partner him with whoever offers them the most money.