Silly Season 2018/2019

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Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Phil » Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:32 am

McHonda wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:58 pm
Phil wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:56 pm
I’ll be extremely surprised if Renault would want him.
Why? Who's better that they could realistically get?

I think they've said they'd be interested if they can give him the car to win but not interested if they can't so I guess it comes down to what their goals are.
If they really wanted him, they would have taken him the year before when, as you said, they publicly said “thanks, but no thanks”.

Alonso has been “available” since 2017 and during that time, both Ferrari seats were available upon Kimi’s and Vettel’s renewal, a seat at Mercedes on two occasions when Rosberg unexpectetly quit and on Bottas renewal. Even Hamilton’s renewal was open. Renault had an opening too, when they wanted Sainz. Did Alonso get any of those seats? No, because in all reality, no one wanted him enough to care.

He may be the best or the most gifted driver on the market, but he is no treath to anyone. And he is old. Too old, to sign for a team that is looking at a long term goal. Renault realistically will not be fighting for a WDC next year. They are continually bettering themselves, building up a winning team. That takes time, experience, continuity. Why in gods name would they sign a driver who is just in the game to win a WDC for himself and probably off and out of F1 soon? They are already pretty much best of the rest with two fine drivers.

If anything, my take is that they’d sooner take Ricciardo, if he wanted that seat. If Ricciardo stays at Redbull, then perhaps the big question is if they can retain Sainz who is only on loan to Renault. It could well be, that RB want Sainz back to replace Hartley at TR, but i am not sure Sainz would want that. The question is, if Sainz can be bought out. Assuming he is too expensive, why and how would they afford Alonso, a likely even more expensive driver?

The only place i can see Alonso going is out of F1. He has become a journey man. He left McLaren and the potential to win the 2008 championship. He then went to Ferrari where he left again in 2014, again, perhaps missing the longterm game and a potential winning car. If he moves back to Renault, what is there to gain? He wont win a championship there either. Renault, i am sure, knows this too. Better to invest in good, hungry younger drivers that are part of their longterm goal. Signing am Alonso just bears the risk that he’ll leave anyway if the team isnt competitive enough or that he’ll move on if suddenly a better team comes along (assuming they’d want him).
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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zeph
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by zeph » Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:42 am

Phil wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:32 am
The only place i can see Alonso going is out of F1. He has become a journey man. He left McLaren and the potential to win the 2008 championship. He then went to Ferrari where he left again in 2014, again, perhaps missing the longterm game and a potential winning car.
I agree there’s nothing left for Alonso in F1 and he should have manned up and sit out his contract with McLaren back then, but I don’t think leaving Ferrari was the wrong choice. For sure, McLaren and Honda turned out to be a disaster, but since his departure Ferrari has consistently been where they were before: second best.

Alonso gets a bad rep but truth is he stuck with them for five years and gave it his all. The best that could have happened was raking up a few more wins but he would still have just two WDC’s to his name. He took a gamble and it didn’t pay off, but so far he hasn’t been wrong about Ferrari.

hemichromis
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by hemichromis » Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:59 am

As I understand it, Sainz's contract will only allow Red bull to take him if he was to go to the Red bull team not Toro Rosso.
So if Ricciardo stays at Red bull Sainz would be free to stay at Renault.

GrayGreat
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by GrayGreat » Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:28 am

Phil wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:32 am
The only place i can see Alonso going is out of F1. He has become a journey man. He left McLaren and the potential to win the 2008 championship. He then went to Ferrari where he left again in 2014, again, perhaps missing the longterm game and a potential winning car.
How anyone can 'blame' Alonso for not winning championships in 2008, and possibly with Ferrari in 2010-2014, is beyond me.

RedBull separated Sainz and Verstappen at Toro Rosse (by promoting Verstappen to RB) because the environment was getting too toxic, but Alonso should have stayed at McLaren after what happened in 2007, because environment there was fabulous, right.

Vettel failed to win with RedBull in one season (2014) even after winning 4 consecutive championships, and jumped ship, and that is alright, but Alonso leaving Ferrari after 5 years of disappointments was somehow wrong... Sorry to disappoint you but I am sure Alonso does not have a crystal ball that could have told him what is going to happen.

It was Alonso who dragged the Ferrari close to championships in '10 and '12. Ferrari did good in 2015 and 2016 because there was no championship pressure. Vettel and Ferrari 'choked' and made mistakes under pressure in 2017 and we are starting to see the same signs in 2018 as well.

hemichromis
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by hemichromis » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:53 pm


ESPImperium
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by ESPImperium » Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:48 pm

Riccardo and Verstappen are paid equally at Red Bull with the same bonuses of €15m base with €9m for the Drivers and €6m for the Constructors title. I understand Alonso is paid $35m/€30m a year from McLaren, and McLaren have dangled a $23m/€19.75 starting figure under the nose of Riccardo at the moment. Im sure that if they upped the base pay to €25m/$29.2m it would be hard for Riccardo to turn down, Red Bull can compete, but Max would also get parity on pay as well, even though Honda is giving them a reported wedge in the $45m-$55m range for a works deal, it would hurt the Red Bull guys budget. Im sure that Adrian Newey would have something to say if the Aero development budget was slimmed to accommodate drivers. Its not the mega next Hamilton contract of $55m base with $40m bonuses, but its a top end contract as its up there with the contract of Kimi of $22m a year and the Bottas contract of $18m a year.

I have a feeling that McLaren will have Riccardo and Norris next year with Gasly taking the trip to Red Bull-Honda and Toro Rosso taking a new driver line up now.

My feeling is this:

Scuderia Ferrari: 5] Vettel / 16] Le Clerc
(Ferrari looking to trim its wage bill and ditch Kimi and offer Le Clerc a €12m a year deal)

Mercedes AMG: 44] Hamilton / 77] Bottas
(Hamilton to get his Mega deal and Bottas to get his package increased to $25m a season)

Red Bull-Honda: 33] Verstappen / 10] Gasly
(Max will stay on his package, but Gasly will take on a more Ferrari/Mercedes deal as a No 2 driver at $8m a year)

Renault Sport F1: 27] Hulkenberg / 31] Ocon
(Ocon will move into a better car and be the french driver in the french team. Both drivers on $14m a season)

Haas-Ferrari: 20] Magnussen / 8] Grosjean
(Team pay its drivers a similar $6m a season i am led to believe, with a bonus on drivers and constructors placing)

Mclaren-Renault: 3] Riccardo / xx] Norris
(McLaren will do a 2007 and bring in a new lineup, with Riccardo on a good top end deal and Norris on a $6m deal with constructors bonuses)

Andretti-Mercedes: 11] Perez / 53] Rossi
(Team will be sold to Andretti, for much less than the $100m that the team is on sale for, Bernie has been drafted in to 'sort' this issue out, Perez will be in for the Mexican audience, and Rossi for the American. Both drivers will be paid $8m a year)

Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda: 55] Sainz / xx] Matsushita
(Sainz will be paid heavily for a return to STR , Matsushita will come in for Honda)

Sauber-Ferrari: 9] Ericson / xx] Giovanazzi
(Ericson will get his $3m a season and Antonio will get similar and will also block Mercedes, Renault and McLaren from placing a driver here for reduced Ferrari fees)

Williams-Mercedes: 18] Stroll / 94] Wehrlien
(Williams need the $35m that Lawrence gives the team for his son, and will need to take Pascal for the reduced Mercedes fees, both paid $5m, roughly)

I can see the Concorde agreement also being signed for 2021 by a presently non F1 entity in Porsche in the coming 6-12 months, to try and get Ferrari, Mercedes, Renault, Red Bull and McLaren to sign short with. Hamilton and Bottas new deals will show whats going on in the larger Silly Season leagues for 2021 and beyond.

Zynerji
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Zynerji » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:27 am

If I was Stroll, I'd have daddy on the phone with Haas, as that 35M on top of their current budget would be lots more updates for an already strong platform. Keep Magnussen, but release Grosjean.

Grosjean/Ocon at Renault would be a dream team for them I believe!

carisi2k
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by carisi2k » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:54 am

Did anybody hear Ricciardo's interview on sky after he retired. He sounds like he is retiring and said he is out of contract for 2019 and might turn to the MMA (jokes obviously on that account). It sounded like he is already out at Red Bull in 2019.

hemichromis
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by hemichromis » Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:51 am

Looks like Leclerc's deal is to secure him as a Ferrari driver, not to drive for the Ferrari team. Expect him in Haas or Sauber next year.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Just_a_fan » Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:57 am

Zynerji wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:27 am
If I was Stroll, I'd have daddy on the phone with Haas, as that 35M on top of their current budget would be lots more updates for an already strong platform. Keep Magnussen, but release Grosjean.

Grosjean/Ocon at Renault would be a dream team for them I believe!
Not sure Stroll would bring enough points - he doesn't seem to be as fast as Grosjean or Magnussen. Whilst his money would be nice, no doubt, the cachet of being 4th in the Championship below the "big 3" is as agood as winning the title for the rest of field.
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Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Phil » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:20 am

hemichromis wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:51 am
Looks like Leclerc's deal is to secure him as a Ferrari driver, not to drive for the Ferrari team. Expect him in Haas or Sauber next year.
I wonder what the point of that would be. There are probably many clauses in such a contract, to not make the team liable in case they can't supply him that seat for any reason. It could well be though.

I think Charles Leclerc is the real deal and there's as much attention on him, as perhaps there was around Max. He is young, he is undeniably fast and talented. He is also a junior Ferrari driver. This means, Ferrari have invested heavily into his career, so in a way Leclerc is indebted to Ferrari and bound to stay there, unless perhaps another team "buys him out". I have no idea how much money a buyout would cost, but surely there is a specific number somewhere in a contract.

This would make him susceptible to other interested teams. This puts Ferrari under pressure in the sense that they either promote him to the big team alongside Vettel or they give him something more tangible for the future, as in, "drive another one year for Sauber and then we'll guarantee you a seat at Ferrari if you can meet this and that [performance] target". But assuming Leclerc is wanted at other teams, would you take such a deal?

Then again, maybe I am reading this all wrong and there isn't much interest in Leclerc by RedBull or Mercedes. Mercedes have Hamilton, a star driver that not only can win championships but also brings an incredible marketing value. Then you have Bottas who is just as quick on occasion, has potential to improve and perhaps has WDC qualities too. IMO he is doing enough to warrant being signed for a 2 year contract too.

RedBull have Max and Sainz, both young and incredibly talented too. I personally think Leclerc is a bigger star, but without him driving in the same car, you'll never know for sure. So perhaps Leclerc, as talented he may be, only real option is to take what Ferrari offers to him, even if that means staying at Sauber or Haas for another 1 or 2 years...
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Big Tea
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Big Tea » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:28 am

ESPImperium wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:48 pm
Riccardo and Verstappen are paid equally at Red Bull with the same bonuses of €15m base with €9m for the Drivers and €6m for the Constructors title. I understand Alonso is paid $35m/€30m a year from McLaren, and McLaren have dangled a $23m/€19.75 starting figure under the nose of Riccardo at the moment. Im sure that if they upped the base pay to €25m/$29.2m it would be hard for Riccardo to turn down, Red Bull can compete, but Max would also get parity on pay as well, even though Honda is giving them a reported wedge in the $45m-$55m range for a works deal, it would hurt the Red Bull guys budget. Im sure that Adrian Newey would have something to say if the Aero development budget was slimmed to accommodate drivers. Its not the mega next Hamilton contract of $55m base with $40m bonuses, but its a top end contract as its up there with the contract of Kimi of $22m a year and the Bottas contract of $18m a year.

I have a feeling that McLaren will have Riccardo and Norris next year with Gasly taking the trip to Red Bull-Honda and Toro Rosso taking a new driver line up now.

My feeling is this:

Scuderia Ferrari: 5] Vettel / 16] Le Clerc
(Ferrari looking to trim its wage bill and ditch Kimi and offer Le Clerc a €12m a year deal)

Mercedes AMG: 44] Hamilton / 77] Bottas
(Hamilton to get his Mega deal and Bottas to get his package increased to $25m a season)

Red Bull-Honda: 33] Verstappen / 10] Gasly
(Max will stay on his package, but Gasly will take on a more Ferrari/Mercedes deal as a No 2 driver at $8m a year)

Renault Sport F1: 27] Hulkenberg / 31] Ocon
(Ocon will move into a better car and be the french driver in the french team. Both drivers on $14m a season)

Haas-Ferrari: 20] Magnussen / 8] Grosjean
(Team pay its drivers a similar $6m a season i am led to believe, with a bonus on drivers and constructors placing)

Mclaren-Renault: 3] Riccardo / xx] Norris
(McLaren will do a 2007 and bring in a new lineup, with Riccardo on a good top end deal and Norris on a $6m deal with constructors bonuses)

Andretti-Mercedes: 11] Perez / 53] Rossi
(Team will be sold to Andretti, for much less than the $100m that the team is on sale for, Bernie has been drafted in to 'sort' this issue out, Perez will be in for the Mexican audience, and Rossi for the American. Both drivers will be paid $8m a year)

Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda: 55] Sainz / xx] Matsushita
(Sainz will be paid heavily for a return to STR , Matsushita will come in for Honda)

Sauber-Ferrari: 9] Ericson / xx] Giovanazzi
(Ericson will get his $3m a season and Antonio will get similar and will also block Mercedes, Renault and McLaren from placing a driver here for reduced Ferrari fees)

Williams-Mercedes: 18] Stroll / 94] Wehrlien
(Williams need the $35m that Lawrence gives the team for his son, and will need to take Pascal for the reduced Mercedes fees, both paid $5m, roughly)

I can see the Concorde agreement also being signed for 2021 by a presently non F1 entity in Porsche in the coming 6-12 months, to try and get Ferrari, Mercedes, Renault, Red Bull and McLaren to sign short with. Hamilton and Bottas new deals will show whats going on in the larger Silly Season leagues for 2021 and beyond.
Sounds very plausible, 'cept maybe Andretti :D
Why not Vandoorne at Williams though? he is a better driver than Wehlien and far more stable too.
He usually seems to just fall off the screen when people do rejigs of drivers, but I think he may have caught the eye of several teams. I also believe he brings a good sponsorship package too(?)
One test is worth a thousand expert opinions

hemichromis
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by hemichromis » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:41 pm

ESPImperium wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:48 pm
Riccardo and Verstappen are paid equally at Red Bull with the same bonuses of €15m base with €9m for the Drivers and €6m for the Constructors title. I understand Alonso is paid $35m/€30m a year from McLaren, and McLaren have dangled a $23m/€19.75 starting figure under the nose of Riccardo at the moment. Im sure that if they upped the base pay to €25m/$29.2m it would be hard for Riccardo to turn down, Red Bull can compete, but Max would also get parity on pay as well, even though Honda is giving them a reported wedge in the $45m-$55m range for a works deal, it would hurt the Red Bull guys budget. Im sure that Adrian Newey would have something to say if the Aero development budget was slimmed to accommodate drivers. Its not the mega next Hamilton contract of $55m base with $40m bonuses, but its a top end contract as its up there with the contract of Kimi of $22m a year and the Bottas contract of $18m a year.

I have a feeling that McLaren will have Riccardo and Norris next year with Gasly taking the trip to Red Bull-Honda and Toro Rosso taking a new driver line up now.

My feeling is this:

Scuderia Ferrari: 5] Vettel / 16] Le Clerc
(Ferrari looking to trim its wage bill and ditch Kimi and offer Le Clerc a €12m a year deal)

Mercedes AMG: 44] Hamilton / 77] Bottas
(Hamilton to get his Mega deal and Bottas to get his package increased to $25m a season)

Red Bull-Honda: 33] Verstappen / 10] Gasly
(Max will stay on his package, but Gasly will take on a more Ferrari/Mercedes deal as a No 2 driver at $8m a year)

Renault Sport F1: 27] Hulkenberg / 31] Ocon
(Ocon will move into a better car and be the french driver in the french team. Both drivers on $14m a season)

Haas-Ferrari: 20] Magnussen / 8] Grosjean
(Team pay its drivers a similar $6m a season i am led to believe, with a bonus on drivers and constructors placing)

Mclaren-Renault: 3] Riccardo / xx] Norris
(McLaren will do a 2007 and bring in a new lineup, with Riccardo on a good top end deal and Norris on a $6m deal with constructors bonuses)

Andretti-Mercedes: 11] Perez / 53] Rossi
(Team will be sold to Andretti, for much less than the $100m that the team is on sale for, Bernie has been drafted in to 'sort' this issue out, Perez will be in for the Mexican audience, and Rossi for the American. Both drivers will be paid $8m a year)

Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda: 55] Sainz / xx] Matsushita
(Sainz will be paid heavily for a return to STR , Matsushita will come in for Honda)

Sauber-Ferrari: 9] Ericson / xx] Giovanazzi
(Ericson will get his $3m a season and Antonio will get similar and will also block Mercedes, Renault and McLaren from placing a driver here for reduced Ferrari fees)

Williams-Mercedes: 18] Stroll / 94] Wehrlien
(Williams need the $35m that Lawrence gives the team for his son, and will need to take Pascal for the reduced Mercedes fees, both paid $5m, roughly)

I can see the Concorde agreement also being signed for 2021 by a presently non F1 entity in Porsche in the coming 6-12 months, to try and get Ferrari, Mercedes, Renault, Red Bull and McLaren to sign short with. Hamilton and Bottas new deals will show whats going on in the larger Silly Season leagues for 2021 and beyond.
Your numbers are really very high Max might get 15m but Ricciardo currently gets much less than than that.
Leclerc couldn't possibly get 12m from Ferrari, probably more like 1-2m.
As for Bottas...

NL_Fer
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by NL_Fer » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:44 pm

Why would Redbull take Gasly over Saintz? It is the more experienced driver, if they don’t believe he is a next world champion, they should/would release him.

Jolle
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Jolle » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:51 pm

NL_Fer wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:44 pm
Why would Redbull take Gasly over Saintz? It is the more experienced driver, if they don’t believe he is a next world champion, they should/would release him.
Because of the gap in talent after the switch of Vettel, promotion, demotion and retirement if Kvyat. Sainz is/was backup for when within a year a driver is needed at the RedBull team.

With the passing of time, Gasly will overtake him for one if the RB thrones.