Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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The irony of getting a plus vote for a post that is then deleted by the mods.

This site is priceless.
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djos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:04 pm
The irony of getting a plus vote for a post that is then deleted by the mods.

This site is priceless.
Yeah that was me who upvoted you, nice one mods! #-o
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

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FW17
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Is this right?

There are 77 million cars sold yearly
If all consume 100kwh a day, this will amount to 2800twh usage a year
Considering 2019 entire consumption was 21372twh this does not look so bad

In terms of growth of generation capacity in 2010 17935twh was generated compared to 2019 21372tkw. The additional 2800twh capacity addition does not look so daunting

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djos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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FW17 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:43 am
Is this right?

If all consume 100kwh a day, this will amount to 2800twh usage a year
No, your number is total rubbish - that's like saying all ICE cars use 60 litres of petrol per day. #-o
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

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FW17
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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djos wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:50 am
FW17 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:43 am
Is this right?

If all consume 100kwh a day, this will amount to 2800twh usage a year
No, your number is total rubbish - that's like saying all ICE cars use 60 litres of petrol per day. #-o


At the max the energy used by people is going to be a 1/3 of the maximum requirement of 2800twh
Highlighting that people skeptical about EV's due to capacity addition to the grid are wrong

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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FW17 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:43 am

In terms of growth of generation capacity in 2010 17935twh was generated compared to 2019 21372tkw. The additional 2800twh capacity addition does not look so daunting
But what was the energy source for that capacity growth. I bet a lot was coal. Trying to add 3000TWh of generating capacity from renewables is not so easy.

About 8% of the World's generation is non-hydro renewables. So you'd need to more than double the World's installed non-hydro generation to get your increase. Doable? Of course. But still daunting, surely.

Hydro is not very popular as it messes up entire river systems. It's also very expensive and not at all CO2 neutral. Lots of concrete is used and at 0.9t CO2 for each 1t of concrete, they're generally very big CO2 producers when being built.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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FW17 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:41 am

Highlighting that people skeptical about EV's due to capacity addition to the grid are wrong
No they're not. There are genuine issues related to increasing installed generating capacity. But the bigger issue is the capacity of the grid to send the electricity where it's required. The infrastructure is old.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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FW17 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:43 am
Is this right?

There are 77 million cars sold yearly
If all consume 100kwh a day, this will amount to 2800twh usage a year
Considering 2019 entire consumption was 21372twh this does not look so bad

In terms of growth of generation capacity in 2010 17935twh was generated compared to 2019 21372tkw. The additional 2800twh capacity addition does not look so daunting
Per year. There are many 6-8-even 10 year old vehicles on the road, many of which are not cars
I am very much in favour of filtered water. Preferably passed through a brewery

theblackangus
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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FW17 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:43 am
Is this right?

There are 77 million cars sold yearly
If all consume 100kwh a day, this will amount to 2800twh usage a year
Considering 2019 entire consumption was 21372twh this does not look so bad

In terms of growth of generation capacity in 2010 17935twh was generated compared to 2019 21372tkw. The additional 2800twh capacity addition does not look so daunting
Some additional math because I was interested in the numbers being talked about.

There are between 1 and 1.4 billion cars on the road today. Projected to hit 2 billion by 2035.
Taking your numbers of 100kwh/day and 2800twh per year, if you converted 1 billion cars to electric cars today you would need roughly an additional 36,364twh to accommodate them if my math is correct.

Math:
77m cars / 2800twh = 27500 cars per twh supported
1b cars / 27,500 cars per twh = 36,364 twh needed for support of those vehicles

That is over double the power we use today in a year if the 2019 ~21,372twh number quoted is correct.

Now if you are aggressive and assume that all cars sold by 2025 are electric and ICE vehicles are gone, then you could reach the conclusion that you would replace all ice vehicles by 2035. (This is very aggressive actually)

If you did so then in 15 years from today you would have to over double the worlds electricity output.
In the last 10 years, by your numbers, the electricity output increased only 16% ish.
To go from 16% ish in 10 years to over 100% in 15 years is a very tall order.
Let alone doing it all with renewables, which are only a small % of electricity generated today.

Really even doing 1/2 that power in 15 years seems like a pretty tall order.

And thats just for cars, not additional industry, not additional population, not additional items that are run by other power today than electric.

Seems like alot of growth for just the power generation.
Then you have to think about power distribution, baseline power generation needs, battery storage if we think all this growth is going to be renewable, battery recycling from various sources, availability of alot more resources and the pollution cost to get them out of the earth for the drastic increase in battery production that would be needed to sustain that pace.

Something other than fossil fuels is the future for sure, but getting off fossil fuels will take us a long long time, and to replace all cars with electric's seems like it will be a decades long journey that just started.

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diffuser
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:02 am
FW17 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:43 am

In terms of growth of generation capacity in 2010 17935twh was generated compared to 2019 21372tkw. The additional 2800twh capacity addition does not look so daunting
But what was the energy source for that capacity growth. I bet a lot was coal. Trying to add 3000TWh of generating capacity from renewables is not so easy.

About 8% of the World's generation is non-hydro renewables. So you'd need to more than double the World's installed non-hydro generation to get your increase. Doable? Of course. But still daunting, surely.

Hydro is not very popular as it messes up entire river systems. It's also very expensive and not at all CO2 neutral. Lots of concrete is used and at 0.9t CO2 for each 1t of concrete, they're generally very big CO2 producers when being built.
Quebec has a ton ...With over 45 036 MW of installed capacity and we keep bringing more online all the time...
https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mr ... c-eng.html

Creates a ton of jobs and once it's setup, maintenance is peanuts...

With regards to cement....
https://money.cnn.com/2018/06/12/techno ... index.html

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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The requirement is for an extra generating capacity in excess of 10 times Quebec's total capacity. So you'd need ten times as many hydro plants. The largest generates fewer than 6GW.

It's possible but it's non-trivial.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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djos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Seriously guys, of you want to be realistic you can’t use 100 kWh’s per vehicle per day, it’s absurd!

Try using 5 kWh per vehicle per day if you want to be taken seriously! The vast majority of vehicles do less than 40 kilometres per day and most electric vehicles can cover between 80-100 kilometres on 10 kWh’s.
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

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FW17
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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You are absolutely right, Km per year should be the consideration. Number of vehicles also is to be corrected to what will be on road

Over the next 15 year 77 million times 15 will be on the road

That would be 1.15 billion cars
They will travel 13.86 trillion km per year (12000 km per car a year)
They will consume 160 wh/km
consuming a total of 2217 twh

Or 50 nuclear power plants with 5 gw capacity each should cover it

Tommy Cookers
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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theblackangus wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 12:34 am
......the worlds electricity output.......increased.....
And thats just for cars, ...., not additional items that are run by other power today than electric.
yes
heating fuel energy takeup domestically and commercially is in temperate countries far bigger than electrical energy takeup

and...
EV cars and owners are not unlike ICE cars and owners
they should buy and drive to the power capability they need but actually will buy and drive to far more capability

and ...
FW17's figure of 160W-hr/km - up to what speed does that apply to electric cars ? (even with matching power capability)

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Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Rivian EV, 750hp, and more than 600km (400mi) range. Is this considered viable?

180kWh battery :shock: 4 motors allowing thrust vectoring, 0-100kmh (0-60mph) in 3 seconds, under $70k

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