COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Pyrone89
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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wickedz50 wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:15 am
Why is FIA not coming up with clarity on the upcoming races where there is serious travel ban from Airlines and Local Govt authorities? so much of confusion and yet no one is bothered.
FIA and clarity? :roll: You havent been following the Ferrari PU story have you? :lol:
True GOATs don’t need the help of superior material to win.

Tom Brady, Usain Bolt are true GOATs.

basti313
basti313
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Shrieker wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:00 pm
hollus wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:23 am
Until people with the virus start glowing in funny colors, we simply don't know how many people is infected. Think about it: what constitutes, in the eyes of your country's health system, an infected person? This makes infection rates massively dependent on the counting an testing an diagnosing systems used, and changeable with time, as it is extremely unlikely that anyone is counted in the first week of his or her infection. (Chicken pox kind of meets this criterium, kind of).
Exactly.. We have a grand total of zero confirmed cases as of now :roll: The twisted logic behind that is, "you don't get any positives if you don't test". With that kind of a mind set, it's inevitable we'll end up like iran or worse...
Looking at the numbers it is obvious, that the counting is wrong, but I do not understand the sentence about Iran. What do you mean with it?
Looking at the numbers Iran is one of the countries counting, interestingly a rather immobile country...or it just shows their good business with China.
Other countries like India are not counting at all for political reasons. They just admit some numbers in Kerala that they can not hides as infected people traveled from and to the Orient.

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JonoNic
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Phil wrote:I have my doubts, given countries with warm climate are also affected. And we've been having an above average warm winter so far in Europe.

Image
This image is outdated already. South Africa has a case and it's still hot there.
Always find the gap then use it.

wickedz50
wickedz50
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Pyrone89 wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:57 pm
wickedz50 wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:15 am
Why is FIA not coming up with clarity on the upcoming races where there is serious travel ban from Airlines and Local Govt authorities? so much of confusion and yet no one is bothered.
FIA and clarity? :roll: You havent been following the Ferrari PU story have you? :lol:
Yes I saw the circus happening at that side as well, however what I meant was FIA being too insensitive towards the difficulties for fans, drivers and team personnel when it comes to taking hard decisions on whether to stop racing events due to the coronavirus calamity.
They are so money crazy and greedy that no concern for human well being. It makes me sad.

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Chene_Mostert
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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wickedz50 wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:41 am
Pyrone89 wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:57 pm
wickedz50 wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:15 am
Why is FIA not coming up with clarity on the upcoming races where there is serious travel ban from Airlines and Local Govt authorities? so much of confusion and yet no one is bothered.
FIA and clarity? :roll: You havent been following the Ferrari PU story have you? :lol:
Yes I saw the circus happening at that side as well, however what I meant was FIA being too insensitive towards the difficulties for fans, drivers and team personnel when it comes to taking hard decisions on whether to stop racing events due to the coronavirus calamity.
They are so money crazy and greedy that no concern for human well being. It makes me sad.
We are all responsible for our own well being. Some decisions we need to make ourselves.
Why do you feel the need for someone to make a decision for you?
"Science at its best is an open-minded method of inquiry, not a belief system." - Rupert Sheldrake

Fulcrum
Fulcrum
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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More data feeds.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

Looking at the logarithmic scale plots shows that cases are not increasing exponentially, so that is some small comfort. This is the first pandemic of the internet age, it is a new experience for everyone. I am hopeful the situation will not be as dire as the media suggests.

That said, I do worry about sub-Saharan Africa.

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hollus
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Total cases excluding China is perfectly exponential. Straight line in the log scale, actually bending slightly up :-(
Thanks for the links, BTW
I would like to see a paleontologist.

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turbof1
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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hollus wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:19 pm
Total cases excluding China is perfectly exponential. Straight line in the log scale, actually bending slightly up :-(
Thanks for the links, BTW
Same in Belgium. It is practically now doubling every day.
#AeroFrodo

Fulcrum
Fulcrum
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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It was exponential in China to begin with as well. Their containment strategies have worked pretty well; alternatively, they are under-reporting cases.

The countries to watch are South Korea, then Iran, then Italy. They have exhibited similar exponentiation in the early stage of infection, but will be reaching the stage (based on China's evolution anyway), where we'd potentially start to see declines in absolute case numbers per day.

South Korea seems to be following this pattern.
https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020 ... above-7000
While 448 new cases remains a sizeable jump, it marked a third straight day of declines in the number of new cases for South Korea.
Realistically, I'd be more trustful of the data from South Korea and Italy.

Outside of China, SK, Italy and Iran, the infections will likely be in the exponential phase for at least a week or two, but this is highly subject to how, or if, containment strategies are used.

Its a bit morbid, but this has been an interesting case study in who is most connected to China by:
  • Geography.
  • Economy.
  • Fraternity (travel outside of business motives).
  • Affluence (i.e. money to be able to travel).
Clearly Africa doesn't score highly on the above factors, relatively speaking anyway.

We're also seeing a practical demonstration of the population distribution of the world. 90% being in the Northern Hemisphere.

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turbof1
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Is a contributing factor to Africa's low(er) relative infections due to the warm weather?
#AeroFrodo

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hollus
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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It should slow down transmission significatively.
I would like to see a paleontologist.

Restomaniac
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Fulcrum wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:51 pm
It was exponential in China to begin with as well. Their containment strategies have worked pretty well; alternatively, they are under-reporting cases.

The countries to watch are South Korea, then Iran, then Italy. They have exhibited similar exponentiation in the early stage of infection, but will be reaching the stage (based on China's evolution anyway), where we'd potentially start to see declines in absolute case numbers per day.

South Korea seems to be following this pattern.
https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020 ... above-7000
While 448 new cases remains a sizeable jump, it marked a third straight day of declines in the number of new cases for South Korea.
Realistically, I'd be more trustful of the data from South Korea and Italy.

Outside of China, SK, Italy and Iran, the infections will likely be in the exponential phase for at least a week or two, but this is highly subject to how, or if, containment strategies are used.

Its a bit morbid, but this has been an interesting case study in who is most connected to China by:
  • Geography.
  • Economy.
  • Fraternity (travel outside of business motives).
  • Affluence (i.e. money to be able to travel).
Clearly Africa doesn't score highly on the above factors, relatively speaking anyway.

We're also seeing a practical demonstration of the population distribution of the world. 90% being in the Northern Hemisphere.
The problem is that how China did it won’t work elsewhere. I can’t as example see the UK government getting away with dragging their citizens into quarantine kicking and screaming.

Titchener
Titchener
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Fulcrum wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:17 pm
More data feeds.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

Looking at the logarithmic scale plots shows that cases are not increasing exponentially, so that is some small comfort. This is the first pandemic of the internet age, it is a new experience for everyone. I am hopeful the situation will not be as dire as the media suggests.

That said, I do worry about sub-Saharan Africa.
I bieve that is part of the reason some people are panicking. Before you would not have seen 1 picture of a shelf empty in 1 supermarket and then be told the world is panic buying.

Restomaniac
Restomaniac
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Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 12:09 am
Location: Hull

Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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turbof1 wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:24 pm
Is a contributing factor to Africa's low(er) relative infections due to the warm weather?
Im not so sure. I am personally worried about how few cases from Africa, India and South America are being discovered. I do hope there isn’t a hidden pandemic in poorer parts of the world that due to lack a good medical health (which is a disgrace to our species) that is going totally unnoticed.

basti313
basti313
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Joined: Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:49 pm

Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Restomaniac wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:42 pm
turbof1 wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:24 pm
Is a contributing factor to Africa's low(er) relative infections due to the warm weather?
Im not so sure. I am personally worried about how few cases from Africa, India and South America are being discovered. I do hope there isn’t a hidden pandemic in poorer parts of the world that due to lack a good medical health (which is a disgrace to our species) that is going totally unnoticed.
Yes, they are simply not testing. The test is expensive and difficult.

Side fact: My uncle works in the local government. For our region we had 130 cotton sticks for the smear test. They need to have a special form factor and seal for the COVID test. They used 80 of them last week. As it looks like these are nowhere available the testing might end in one week or they use other sticks, what makes the test much less precise...