Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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nzjrs
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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aMessageToCharlie wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:40 pm
2019 is a similar story with Verstappen coming in 3rd in the wdc with 278 points (only 48 points behind Bottas in the dominant Merc) vs Albon in 8th!! with only 92 points.
Very minor correction - 2019 saw a Albon/Gasly driver swap, so finishing position of Albon (or Gasly) is not relevant in 2019 per se.

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NathanOlder
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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aMessageToCharlie wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:40 pm


That is why Red Bull replaced Albon and that is why people criticise Bottas. And calling them bitter or haters isnt helping your argument.
It's not an argument for a start , its a debate. And we are looking at the stats that back up the fact that the Mercedes cars were NOT as dominant in 2017 & 18, as they were in 2014-16.

But you can't see this for one reason or another.
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JordanMugen
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:03 pm
There you go. That's why. They win both titles so it's "job done" for the team.
It will cost Mercedes if or when Mclaren-Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari or Alpine-Renault beat them to the WCC or even to 2nd, 3rd or lower in the WCC. Under the budget cap, it is quite the possibility indeed. :wink:

All these teams should striving to sign the best two drivers possible to maximise WCC points. :)

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Scorpaguy
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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...maybe a better approach to ascertaining if the Merc was/is the dominant car would be to ask the 20 drivers which car they would most want to drive for a season :)

Stats aside (as we all love manipulating them to our advantage), I believe it would be safe to say that as a team, Merc has shown dominance in the current era...shaded only by a chasing/but not catching Arrivabene (thusly fired for his efforts).

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NathanOlder
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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Yeah very true, All I am saying is, of the 7 years of the hybrid era so far, 2017 and 2018 were when Mercedes advantage was at its smallest. That surely is clear to see?
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PlatinumZealot
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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Scorpaguy wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:42 am
I just do not think Bot has the killer instinct...aggressive overtakes are just not his forte. I believe his stats from last year point to him being an average driver (albeit in a field of elite drivers). Such is often taken as a swipe at Ham...but should not be (a soon to be 8X should need no defense against such silliness).

In the best car, Ham had an average finish of 1.875...in the same car Bot had an average finish of 5.294. Bot is not WDC material...but is capable of wielding a William's or Haas to the odd respectable finish.
BOT is a very strong defender and that's a good combination with being a fast qualifier.

Other than the bad luck he has seen at starts or tyre disaprities... He is rarely overtaken on track.

Solid rear gunner for Lewis. I see no reason to change him than to bring more exitement to the team if that is what Toto wants and I doubt it.
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Phil
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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aMessageToCharlie wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:21 pm
So yes, Mercedes did score less points from 2017-2020. But the car was more than capeable, (in fact exactly the same as 2014-2016) as Hamilton's results show. It's just that their number two driver didnt perform, which is exactly why he's being criticised and why people point out that he is no yard stick to measure a driver's achievements against.
I have to admit to being totally dumbfounded why someone would want to use some percentage of driver points to deduct which ‘era’ was more dominant if you can simply look at qualifying times and the gap those cars won during the race.

You see, by looking at points, you’re always going to sway the story because of how the point systems works. Regardless if the driver finishing 2nd finished 3 or 10 seconds ahead of 3rd, he’ll still only gain 3 points.

If you are serious on making any point regarding Bottas vs Rosberg, at least make it a somewhat decent argument.

Bottas stats are severly hampered by the fact that 2017, 2018 and even 2019, the Mercedes was not the quickest car on the grid on various occasions and in two seasons wasnt even leading the championship until the 2nd half. When did that ever happen in 2014, 2015 or 2016? Never. If you cant see how that might influence the very points argument you made, i guess there’s really no point in wasting any time continuing this.
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Scorpaguy
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:33 pm

BOT is a very strong defender and that's a good combination with being a fast qualifier.

Other than the bad luck he has seen at starts or tyre disaprities... He is rarely overtaken on track.

Solid rear gunner for Lewis. I see no reason to change him than to bring more exitement to the team if that is what Toto wants and I doubt it.
PZ...certainly agree with the "fast qualifier" statement...one of the best 3 on the grid IMHO.

As for Toto...Yes! He wants no more drama. He wants no more drama today! (name that tune).

However, I sort of always considered him a bit of a sieve when it comes to being passed...I will look into some stats (...go ahead, change my mind...)

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Scorpaguy
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:23 pm
Yeah very true, All I am saying is, of the 7 years of the hybrid era so far, 2017 and 2018 were when Mercedes advantage was at its smallest. That surely is clear to see?
2018 definitely.

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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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El Scorchio wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:43 pm

Also worth noting, mentioning third place, that was a certain Mr Bottas in that race and he also set the fastest lap....
Also worth noting Sochi is one of the few tracks where Bottas could be described as 'world class'.

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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:21 am
aMessageToCharlie wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:03 pm
NathanOlder wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:18 pm


Absolutely not. Rosberg had 3 years in a WCC car and all 3 years (100%) they smashed the rest.
Bottas has had 4yrs in a WCC and 50% of those they smashed the rest.

100% > 50%
2017 WCC & WDC: Mercedes
2018 WCC & WDC: Mercedes
2019 WCC & WDC: Mercedes
2020 WCC & WDC: Mercedes

4/4 = 100%
Were talking about dominant cars , not just a WCC winner.

Lets look at some stats to back up my side of this debate
The gap between 2nd and 1st in the WCC

Rosberg era
2014 Merc scored 73% more than 2nd place
2015 Merc scored 64% more than 2nd place
2016 Merc scored 63% more than 2nd place
average 67%

Bottas era
2017 Merc scored 27% more than 2nd place
2018 Merc scored 14% more than 2nd place
2019 Merc scored 46% more than 2nd place
2020 Merc scored 79% more than 2nd place
average 42%

Now please explain how Bottas car was just as dominant as Rosbergs ?! Thats a huge difference. So I think you are wrong on your claim.
Part of the problem with your analysis is it is confounded by the variable we're trying to differentiate, i.e. the driver.

You can't separate the driver from the era. Your argument fails to refute the claim that Bottas is a significant component of the variance in Mercedes performance. I.e. the team differential has narrowed because Bottas is a weaker second driver.

By way of example, analyzing the performance of Hamilton across both the Rosberg and Bottas era leads to exactly the opposite conclusion.

Consider the number of points Hamilton has scored as a percentage of the maximum points available.

2014-2016 - Hamilton scored 1145 points of a potential 1500; 76.33% of the maximum, or, an average of 19.41 points per race.

2017-2020 - Hamilton scored 1531 points of a potential 2013; 76.06% of the maximum, or, an average of 19.38 points per race.

Even if you correct for the Abu Dhabi double points in 2014, and remove points for Fastest laps, the averages are fairly similar. 18.98 prior to 2017, 19.23 post 2016.

The difference in mean scores is not statistically significant.

Looking at individual years:

2014 - 76.8%
2015 - 80.2%
2016 - 72.4%
2017 - 72.6%
2018 - 77.7%
2019 - 75.6%
2020 - 78.5%

The data shows a remarkable consistency in performance. Irrespective of the perceived dominance, or otherwise, of the car, Hamilton lands up in much the same place every year.

The conclusion being, the equipment has very definitely been available to exploit by whoever had the capacity to do so. The primary difference being, Bottas lacks this capacity.

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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:49 pm


2 things to crush your hopes in dismissing Bottas
Could you provide some evidence to prove this assertion?

An equally likely assertion is Hamilton has no major competition anymore now he has a lapdog for a teammate, is more mentally at ease, and can simply focus on driving the car rather than playing politics against an uncomfortably competitive teammate.

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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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Fulcrum wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:33 am
NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:49 pm


2 things to crush your hopes in dismissing Bottas
Could you provide some evidence to prove this assertion?

An equally likely assertion is Hamilton has no major competition anymore now he has a lapdog for a teammate, is more mentally at ease, and can simply focus on driving the car rather than playing politics against an uncomfortably competitive teammate.
I'd assert if he is more at ease as you claim, its because his teammate isn't constantly playing games, not because of his teammates performance level!
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aMessageToCharlie
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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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Phil wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:35 pm
I have to admit to being totally dumbfounded why someone would want to use some percentage of driver points to deduct which ‘era’ was more dominant if you can simply look at qualifying times and the gap those cars won during the race.

You see, by looking at points, you’re always going to sway the story because of how the point systems works. Regardless if the driver finishing 2nd finished 3 or 10 seconds ahead of 3rd, he’ll still only gain 3 points.

If you are serious on making any point regarding Bottas vs Rosberg, at least make it a somewhat decent argument.

Bottas stats are severly hampered by the fact that 2017, 2018 and even 2019, the Mercedes was not the quickest car on the grid on various occasions and in two seasons wasnt even leading the championship until the 2nd half. When did that ever happen in 2014, 2015 or 2016? Never. If you cant see how that might influence the very points argument you made, i guess there’s really no point in wasting any time continuing this.


Every metric we apply will be in some way swayed. By looking at qualy times you might reveal that driver x is a good qualifyer but fails to bring the points home. Gaps at the end of a race are pretty much irrelevant as teams only push their material as much as they need to and keep a gap just big enough. Drivers even slow down before the line to celebrate their victories, so I don't see how it is a bad idea to look at what actually counts: the results (points) they brought in. Maybe you'd like to elaborate on that?

You say that Bottas' bad stats compared to Rosberg's are the result of being disadvantaged by driving worse cars.

I disagree and I pointed out exactly how I came to that conclusion.

Of course there is some variance in the cars performance over a saison and by looking at specific races or half seasons you can make those look more severe. In the end however the deciding factor is the full season result as that's what decides championships and payouts.


aMessageToCharlie wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:40 pm
The 2017 and 2018 Mercedes was still more than capeable to get points and wins as shown not only by the wdc and wcc trophies, but also by the number one driver, who bought in the exact same percentage of available points in 2017 as in 2016 (73%), won 9 races vs. Bottas 3 and became wdc.

Same in 2018. 11 wins for Hamilton, wdc and bagged 77% of the available points which is on par with 2019 (79%).

And Bottas?

0 wins, bagged only 47% of available points and came in 5th!!! in the wdc.

In 2019 Mercedes won 15/21 races which is on a 2014 level of dominance (16/19), so I really don't see how you could make a valid point out of Bottas having "his hands tied" by being in slower cars.

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Re: Silly season 2021-2022-2023

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Scorpaguy wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:08 am
NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:23 pm
Yeah very true, All I am saying is, of the 7 years of the hybrid era so far, 2017 and 2018 were when Mercedes advantage was at its smallest. That surely is clear to see?
2018 definitely.
2018 is probably the one year that Hamilton did make the difference between the team taking the titles and not doing so. The year he earned his pay, you might say, especially in the first part of the season where he was swapping with Vettel. Similarly 2017, really, where it was two retirements for Vettel - one arguably his own fault, one a mechanical failure - that gave Hamilton the gap. But for those, it would have been a much tighter finish to the season.
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