2022 pecking order speculation

Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.

Who comes out on top in the new regs?

Mercedes
117
26%
Red Bull
101
23%
Ferrari
123
28%
McLaren
60
13%
Aston Martin
9
2%
Williams
8
2%
Haas
8
2%
Alfa Romeo
1
0%
Alpine
18
4%
Alpha Tauri
1
0%
 
Total votes: 446

Neno
Neno
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 11:13 am
Stu wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:46 am
To be fair, I think that the budget cap should include the engine allowance. If Williams (for example) overuse their allocation - for whatever reason - does their engine bill increase? Yes! That affects their operations budget (even if it doesn’t affect the budget cap) and needs to be accounted for.
So why should a ‘works’ team get a free-pass? They could, in theory, operate the power unit such that it will last two races (before going into the ‘free practice’ engine pool), provided that they take the grid penalty that goes with each subsequent power unit change and complete the season having used 12 power units. THIS is an unfair advantage, that would openly flout the power unit restriction rules, but meet the letter of the regulations (as they serve the penalty).
Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t customer engine supply deals capped at £15m.
I am not sure they are capped but inside of those supply deals there are written agreements and clauses where for engine "safety" and "durability" lasting whole season supply teams are capped how many components they can use. Mercedes used numerous ICE's at the end of season (not for safety but for engine advantage and max power), but due those contracts I mentioned other Mercedes customers would never be granted to do same. Because that would put a engine in risk. Which is reason again why Merc is selling their engines to customers at bargain deals so they dont complain.
Last edited by Neno on Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Ryar
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:31 am
Ryar wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:49 am
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:06 am

Considering Newey himself has said the high rake philosophy won’t work with the 2022 regs what make you think it will?
Can you quote an article where you read that? Curious to know.
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:06 am

Mercedes literally had one upgrade chassis/aero upgrade in 2021 while RB were almost continuously developing yet merc still won the WCC, all done without throwing “half a billion” at their car too make it faster.
Did you account for the points loss induced by Mercedes on Red Bull in Silverstone and Hungary and the resultant grid penalties for Max and Checo. Who knows if that wasn't the case, RB would have taken both titles.
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:06 am

Could Aston be considered a sister/customer team too Mercedes?
Question is, does Lawrence wants to be that Guinea pig, considering they are poaching resources from both RB and Merc and are ambitious of winning titles themselves in the near future, unlike AT and Haas. Will they be willing to let go wind tunnel time to help Mercedes? If yes, then good for Mercedes and if not, then good luck Mercedes.
“ Newey: By nature, the angle of attack will be lower. We are talking about a kind of Venturi car here. And they have to drive as close as possible above the road to take advantage of the ground effect. You will certainly not see more cars that are as high in the back as they are today.”
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... 2er-autos/

Why does everything always come back to silverstone with Redbull fans 🤦🏼‍♂️. We can all play the same what aboutism game but the undeniable fact is, Mercedes won the WCC while investing minimal recourses into the W12.

Doesn’t both Mercedes and Wolff own shares in Aston? Aston have shared the same philosophy as Mercedes the past couple of season and purchase those parts which can be shared amongst teams from Mercedes. I wasn’t aware of Aston “poaching resources” from Redbull.
Silverstone and Hungary are hard facts. It's not whataboutery. If you don't like, it doesn't change much. One team throwing so many PUs in a car costs money, a hell of lot of money, which is what Mercedes did with Bottas and Lewis in 2021. It sure earned a lot of points, without which, I don't think Mercedes could have won WCC. Good luck doing that in 2022 and beyond.
Hakuna Matata!

Tvetovnato
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Joined: Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Ryar wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:53 pm
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:31 am
Ryar wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:49 am
Can you quote an article where you read that? Curious to know.
Did you account for the points loss induced by Mercedes on Red Bull in Silverstone and Hungary and the resultant grid penalties for Max and Checo. Who knows if that wasn't the case, RB would have taken both titles.
Question is, does Lawrence wants to be that Guinea pig, considering they are poaching resources from both RB and Merc and are ambitious of winning titles themselves in the near future, unlike AT and Haas. Will they be willing to let go wind tunnel time to help Mercedes? If yes, then good for Mercedes and if not, then good luck Mercedes.
“ Newey: By nature, the angle of attack will be lower. We are talking about a kind of Venturi car here. And they have to drive as close as possible above the road to take advantage of the ground effect. You will certainly not see more cars that are as high in the back as they are today.”
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... 2er-autos/

Why does everything always come back to silverstone with Redbull fans 🤦🏼‍♂️. We can all play the same what aboutism game but the undeniable fact is, Mercedes won the WCC while investing minimal recourses into the W12.

Doesn’t both Mercedes and Wolff own shares in Aston? Aston have shared the same philosophy as Mercedes the past couple of season and purchase those parts which can be shared amongst teams from Mercedes. I wasn’t aware of Aston “poaching resources” from Redbull.
Silverstone and Hungary are hard facts. It's not whataboutery. If you don't like, it doesn't change much. One team throwing so many PUs in a car costs money, a hell of lot of money, which is what Mercedes did with Bottas and Lewis in 2021. It sure earned a lot of points, without which, I don't think Mercedes could have won WCC. Good luck doing that in 2022 and beyond.
By this reasoning we could alter many championships. Some of which would give Alonso and Raikkonen zero championships to their name, and Schumacher and Hamilton 10 each. But that did not happen, since it’s a pointless exercise. I’m sure we can find just as many hypothetical instances where Mercedes should have scored more points this year too.

But points counting aside, the fact of this year is that Mercedes put minimal effort into this years car, and still turned the tables on Red Bull mid season pace-wise. Engines did help, but in the final few races it was not all engine, but car too. Red Bull had no chance in Qatar where Merc used an old engine for Hamilton, so they found a setup breakthrough as well. Abu Dhabi was an even bigger blow pace-wise. All while operating within the cost cap.

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Stu
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 11:13 am
Stu wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:46 am
To be fair, I think that the budget cap should include the engine allowance. If Williams (for example) overuse their allocation - for whatever reason - does their engine bill increase? Yes! That affects their operations budget (even if it doesn’t affect the budget cap) and needs to be accounted for.
So why should a ‘works’ team get a free-pass? They could, in theory, operate the power unit such that it will last two races (before going into the ‘free practice’ engine pool), provided that they take the grid penalty that goes with each subsequent power unit change and complete the season having used 12 power units. THIS is an unfair advantage, that would openly flout the power unit restriction rules, but meet the letter of the regulations (as they serve the penalty).
Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t customer engine supply deals capped at £15m.
But that is for the regulated quantity of power units, exceed that and costs increase (and that cost will be exponential), ‘works’ teams do not have that restriction, so you get the potential to exploit that situation (while restricting competitors that ‘you’ supply to an inferior operating condition).
The more that I learn, the more I appreciate how much more there is to know….

Csmith1980
Csmith1980
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Joined: Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:00 pm

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Ryar wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:53 pm
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:31 am
Ryar wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:49 am
Can you quote an article where you read that? Curious to know.
Did you account for the points loss induced by Mercedes on Red Bull in Silverstone and Hungary and the resultant grid penalties for Max and Checo. Who knows if that wasn't the case, RB would have taken both titles.
Question is, does Lawrence wants to be that Guinea pig, considering they are poaching resources from both RB and Merc and are ambitious of winning titles themselves in the near future, unlike AT and Haas. Will they be willing to let go wind tunnel time to help Mercedes? If yes, then good for Mercedes and if not, then good luck Mercedes.
“ Newey: By nature, the angle of attack will be lower. We are talking about a kind of Venturi car here. And they have to drive as close as possible above the road to take advantage of the ground effect. You will certainly not see more cars that are as high in the back as they are today.”
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... 2er-autos/

Why does everything always come back to silverstone with Redbull fans 🤦🏼‍♂️. We can all play the same what aboutism game but the undeniable fact is, Mercedes won the WCC while investing minimal recourses into the W12.

Doesn’t both Mercedes and Wolff own shares in Aston? Aston have shared the same philosophy as Mercedes the past couple of season and purchase those parts which can be shared amongst teams from Mercedes. I wasn’t aware of Aston “poaching resources” from Redbull.
Silverstone and Hungary are hard facts. It's not whataboutery. If you don't like, it doesn't change much. One team throwing so many PUs in a car costs money, a hell of lot of money, which is what Mercedes did with Bottas and Lewis in 2021. It sure earned a lot of points, without which, I don't think Mercedes could have won WCC. Good luck doing that in 2022 and beyond.
Of course it’s whataboutery, simply because we can play the same game with the points Mercedes lost throughout the season regardless of fault, it’s motorsport and no one has a perfectly faultless season.
No one stopped Honda from throwing engines at Max or Checo they just chose no too.
It would seem Mercedes have cured the ICE reliability issues and has no issue with running higher engine modes for longer. It would appear Mercedes pulled the same trick as Honda did with its “reliability” upgrade earlier in the season.

Csmith1980
Csmith1980
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Joined: Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:00 pm

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Stu wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:13 pm
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 11:13 am
Stu wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:46 am
To be fair, I think that the budget cap should include the engine allowance. If Williams (for example) overuse their allocation - for whatever reason - does their engine bill increase? Yes! That affects their operations budget (even if it doesn’t affect the budget cap) and needs to be accounted for.
So why should a ‘works’ team get a free-pass? They could, in theory, operate the power unit such that it will last two races (before going into the ‘free practice’ engine pool), provided that they take the grid penalty that goes with each subsequent power unit change and complete the season having used 12 power units. THIS is an unfair advantage, that would openly flout the power unit restriction rules, but meet the letter of the regulations (as they serve the penalty).
Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t customer engine supply deals capped at £15m.
But that is for the regulated quantity of power units, exceed that and costs increase (and that cost will be exponential), ‘works’ teams do not have that restriction, so you get the potential to exploit that situation (while restricting competitors that ‘you’ supply to an inferior operating condition).
I cannot find any reference of customer teams being charged extra for going beyond their allotted PU’s

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F1Krof
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Given the rule changes, more downforce generation from under body, together with shorter wheelbase and stiffer tires, the writing is on the wall. RBR with Max will dominate next 2 to 3 years (it sure sounds like RBR requested those changes specifically :P ).

Ferrari is a dark horse, given their slump in 2020 and 2021 I believe they put almost all the attention to the 2022 car.

My guess is:
1. RBR 0.00
2. Ferrari +0.60
3. McLaren & Mercedes +0.65 to + 0.80
4. Aston Martin & Alpine + 0.85 to 1.00
5. Alpha Tauri & Alpha Romeo +1.10 to 1.25
6. Williams & Haas +1.40 to 1.80
Last edited by F1Krof on Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wroom wroom

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Wouter
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:29 pm
It would appear Mercedes pulled the same trick as Honda did with its “reliability” upgrade earlier in the season.
.
What reliability upgrade did Honda have and what trick are you talking about?
The Power of Honda!

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Blackout
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Alpine is definitely a dark horse. Mclaren or Aston Martin are neither stronger nor better prepared for 2022. Alpine/Renault is focussing on this season since ages and had voluntarily risked to plateau or to drop off in the last 2 seasons, for it. They had more than enough ressources to build a new car and engine in 2020 like their rivals did, and to develop them in 2021, but they opted to keep the same 2019 monocoque, gearbox and engine in '20 and 2021 (and that didnt prevent them from fighting for 3rd place till the end in 2020), then covid and the freeze came and forced them to run a 3 years old chassis/PU so dont be fooled by their '21 season) but they did all of this for a good reason; to spend much more time and ressources, than their limited budget would normally allow, on the new regulation to try to make the biggest leap forward.
And knowing what they managed to do despite all this in the last seasons, they should be a force to be reckoned with in 2022.
But the big 3 should remain at the top for some time, because they've certainly put even more ressources and as much time on their 2022 project.
...unless one of these messes up, obviously... in 2021 it was Aston Martin. They had everything to succeed in 2021, but failed miserably.

Csmith1980
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Wouter wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:39 pm
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:29 pm
It would appear Mercedes pulled the same trick as Honda did with its “reliability” upgrade earlier in the season.
.
What reliability upgrade did Honda have and what trick are you talking about?
Honda’s 2nd PU introduced at Paul Ricard was all of a sudden honda are class of the field. Honda somewhat denied any upgrade but the data didn’t lie.
Redbull fans defended that apparent performance increase by claiming it was there in the first race at Bahrain but reliability issues meant the PU couldn’t be run in that mode for a prolonged period.
That was Hondas “trick”

It would appear Mercedes had performance in reserve but couldn’t reliably run those modes until they themselves made a “reliability” upgrade around monza I believe. This updated PU was something like 600g heavier.

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Wouter
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 2:09 pm
Wouter wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:39 pm
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:29 pm
It would appear Mercedes pulled the same trick as Honda did with its “reliability” upgrade earlier in the season.
.
What reliability upgrade did Honda have and what trick are you talking about?
.
Honda’s 2nd PU introduced at Paul Ricard was all of a sudden honda are class of the field.
Honda somewhat denied any upgrade but the data didn’t lie.
Redbull fans defended that apparent performance increase by claiming it was there in the first race at Bahrain but reliability issues meant the PU couldn’t be run in that mode for a prolonged period.
That was Hondas “trick”
.
I don't know what RBR fans said, but I know this from Paul Monaghan from RBR.
The gain wasn't from Paul Ricard, the gain was already there in Baku with PU1. :

Red Bull and AlphaTauri have benefitted from an ExxonMobil oil upgrade over the past two Formula 1 races.
ExxonMobil claims the new oil can run at higher temperatures, as well as creating less deposits. But confidence is high that this will lead to longer-term gains, with Red Bull and Honda yet to fully exploit the improvements given it has only used the oil for the events in Azerbaijan and France.

“These are the early steps in terms of establishing just how big a temperature we could push the oil to,” said Red Bull chief engineer Paul Monaghan when asked by The Race about the gains.

“It’s dependent not only on the work that ExxonMobil have done in the oil’s ability to withstand high temperatures, its ability to then take it out of the engine and our ability to put it through a cooler, but it’s also down to what the clever chaps in Honda can do with an engine that we have actually moved the temperature targets a little bit.

“Everything is not without consequence. We can lift the temperature of the engine but it doesn’t mean it’s going to run as we would want. So we have a range of cooling solutions on the car with bodywork, which is quite common practice and we have different exit configurations.

“We’re able to tune that not only for an ambient condition but from whatever ExxonMobil and Honda can allow us to have. Sometimes they might ask for a bit more cooling, if they ask for a little bit less then we’ll take it gladly close the bodywork up a little bit and run the generally hotter.

“We can split the system such that oil and water can be treated a little bit differently. I don’t think it’s possible to ever say that you’re going to treat one in isolation from the other because one typically will be seen in other fluids.

“Whether we are able to make greater steps through this season, we’re on the learning curve and the more we learn, the more we exploit it.
Honda had the performance in pre-season testing and Marko shed light on the high temperature issues. ExxonMobil and Honda have been at it working out how to deal with the temperature challenges and this recently upgraded oil seems to have put Honda back into the higher operating modes.
Tanabe has already stated the 2nd PU is the same spec so there's no reason to doubt that.
The Power of Honda!

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henry
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Mercedes’ have, over the current formula, shown that they have a very good understanding of what makes a winning car and how to operate it. This year they showed that even with extreme restrictions on the design side they had enough understanding to change the optimisation of their basic design concept, low rake.

Unless some other team finds a novel, advantageous, interpretation of the rules I expect Mercedes to be at the front. According to the aero experts low rake and platform control will be essential and Mercedes have been doing that very effectively for 7 seasons. They have a head start.
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus

Csmith1980
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Wouter wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 3:08 pm
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 2:09 pm
Wouter wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:39 pm

.
What reliability upgrade did Honda have and what trick are you talking about?
.
Honda’s 2nd PU introduced at Paul Ricard was all of a sudden honda are class of the field.
Honda somewhat denied any upgrade but the data didn’t lie.
Redbull fans defended that apparent performance increase by claiming it was there in the first race at Bahrain but reliability issues meant the PU couldn’t be run in that mode for a prolonged period.
That was Hondas “trick”
Tanabe has already stated the 2nd PU is the same spec so there's no reason to doubt that.
That is somewhat debatable, listening too his interview and reading between the lines, Tababe is talking about “performance spec and upgrades”.
On top of that Wolff suggested Honda had introduced a reliably upgrade and he would have been privy too documents the FIA would have distributed too all teams.
Anyway, I’ll leave it there through fear of upsetting any more Redbull fans and acculturating more downvotes 🙄

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Ryar
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Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 2:09 pm
Wouter wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:39 pm
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:29 pm
It would appear Mercedes pulled the same trick as Honda did with its “reliability” upgrade earlier in the season.
.
What reliability upgrade did Honda have and what trick are you talking about?
Honda’s 2nd PU introduced at Paul Ricard was all of a sudden honda are class of the field. Honda somewhat denied any upgrade but the data didn’t lie.
Redbull fans defended that apparent performance increase by claiming it was there in the first race at Bahrain but reliability issues meant the PU couldn’t be run in that mode for a prolonged period.
That was Hondas “trick”

It would appear Mercedes had performance in reserve but couldn’t reliably run those modes until they themselves made a “reliability” upgrade around monza I believe. This updated PU was something like 600g heavier.
The definitions are quite messy here to call something as "trick". If a manufacturer is introducing a part, other than the original one, it's a performance update, if it is allowed. In a year where there was allowance of one upgrade of different parts, different manufacturers chose different intervals to do upgrades. If a "reliability" upgrade enables unlocking further aggressive engine modes, which they were unable to run, that's not "trick". Reliability upgrades goes through the process of scrutineering and if it is given a go ahead, it's really insane to call it, "trick", regardless if Mercedes does it or Red Bull. This is going to continue happening in 2022, where manufacturers would push certain fragile parts, if they are highly performant as they know, they can roll out reliability upgrades. Good luck calling it, "trick", because Mercedes made some noise mid season this year to rally their fans.
Hakuna Matata!

Csmith1980
Csmith1980
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Joined: Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:00 pm

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Ryar wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 5:25 pm
Csmith1980 wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 2:09 pm
Wouter wrote:
Sun Dec 26, 2021 1:39 pm

.
What reliability upgrade did Honda have and what trick are you talking about?
Honda’s 2nd PU introduced at Paul Ricard was all of a sudden honda are class of the field. Honda somewhat denied any upgrade but the data didn’t lie.
Redbull fans defended that apparent performance increase by claiming it was there in the first race at Bahrain but reliability issues meant the PU couldn’t be run in that mode for a prolonged period.
That was Hondas “trick”

It would appear Mercedes had performance in reserve but couldn’t reliably run those modes until they themselves made a “reliability” upgrade around monza I believe. This updated PU was something like 600g heavier.
The definitions are quite messy here to call something as "trick". If a manufacturer is introducing a part, other than the original one, it's a performance update, if it is allowed. In a year where there was allowance of one upgrade of different parts, different manufacturers chose different intervals to do upgrades. If a "reliability" upgrade enables unlocking further aggressive engine modes, which they were unable to run, that's not "trick". Reliability upgrades goes through the process of scrutineering and if it is given a go ahead, it's really insane to call it, "trick", regardless if Mercedes does it or Red Bull. This is going to continue happening in 2022, where manufacturers would push certain fragile parts, if they are highly performant as they know, they can roll out reliability upgrades. Good luck calling it, "trick", because Mercedes made some noise mid season this year to rally their fans.
Perhaps you would prefer the term workaround?
If you employ aggressive engine modes with the knowledge it is unsustainable without damaging your PU, then later deploy a reliability upgrade which fixes the reason why you couldn’t run that mode consistently, then I would call that a “workaround” and it would appear both Honda and Mercedes used it this season.

But I fear we are getting off topic and I can sense more downvotes coming my way.