I am reasonably optimistic for Mercedes this weekend. I saw Toto was positive after P2, saying they could fight for pole and were good on race pace. Strangely both drivers were quite negative. Saying this LH was 1st in P1, albeit with better track conditions, but the car looked compliant and good round the lap, it appeared to have a good front-end to me.
In P2 he was matching Sainz on the medium and then neither Merc got in a clean lap on the soft so there's time there. Leclerc/Verstap both were compromised but equally went out on a faster track later in the session.
GR seemed to have a consistent long-run vs Sainz but the interesting one for me is LH's first lap on the longrun in the 1:47s, showing the potential - I often see when Ferrari/RB are quickest on a given weekend they pop in a lap much faster than anyone on their Friday longrun showing their potential. This isn't a huge standout as he was on soft but it is reasonably impressive.
What may count is if Merc can get the tyres working, they may be able to keep them in the window throughout the whole lap whereas RB especially may overheat at the end. Hopefully a 3-way fight.