2023 pecking order predictions

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jrionegro
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Joined: 26 Jan 2014, 20:58

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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RB
MERC
AM
FER
MAC
ALP
AFR
AFT
WIL
HAS

kHz33
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Joined: 23 Feb 2023, 23:25
Location: Budapest, HU

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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1. RBR
2. Ferrari
3-4. Mercedes/Aston Martin (balance of power will change drastically from track to track)
5-6-7. Alpine/Alfa Romeo/Haas (see above)
8. McLaren somewhere in no man's land
9. Williams
10. Alpha Tauri

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Zynerji
111
Joined: 27 Jan 2016, 16:14

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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RBR
AM
FER
WIL
MER
AFR
HAS
ALP
AFT
MCL

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organic
948
Joined: 08 Jan 2022, 02:24
Location: Cambridge, UK

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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:lol:

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Juzh
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Joined: 06 Oct 2012, 08:45

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Ferrari at worst will be level with Ver, so it'll be LEC/VER battle as usual, then sainz and per. Merc drivers will be easy 5-6. Alonso 7th. then alpine.

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BorisTheBlade
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Joined: 21 Nov 2008, 11:15
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Start of season:
1. RBR
2. Ferrari
3-4. Aston Martin / Alpine
5-6. Mercedes / Alfa Romeo
7. Haas
8. Alpha Tauri
9. McLaren
10. Williams

End of season:
1. RBR
2. Ferrari
3. Mercedes
4. Aston Martin
5. Alpine
6. McLaren
7. Alfa Romeo
8. Haas
9. Alpha Tauri
10. Williams

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Artur Craft
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Joined: 05 Feb 2010, 15:50

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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RB
FER

MER
AM

Others don´t matter much anyway

pantherxxx
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Joined: 05 Jun 2018, 15:04
Location: Hungary

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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1. Ferrari
2. Red Bull
3. Aston Martin
4. Alfa Romeo
5. Mercedes
6. Haas
7. Alpine
8. Alpha Tauri
9. Mclaren
10. Williams

DChemTech
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Joined: 25 Mar 2019, 11:31
Location: Delft, NL

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Artur Craft wrote:
27 Feb 2023, 01:21
RB
FER

MER
AM

Others don´t matter much anyway
Disagree that the others don't matter - especially when it comes to pecking order predictions. The top 3 is (Relatively) easy - the rest is the more challenging part of the prediction (and with that, the more 'fun' to see who gets it right or wrong).

ali623
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Joined: 27 Jan 2022, 16:27

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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ali623 wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 12:15
Red Bull/Ferrari
Mercedes (+0.2/3s)
Alpine (+0.6/7s)
McLaren/AM (+0.8/9s)
Haas/AR (+1-1.2s)
AT/Williams (1.2-1.5s)
Slightly revising my predictions now testing is over,

Red Bull
Mercedes/Ferrari (+0.2/3s)
Alpine/AM (+0.6/7s)
McLaren/Haas/AR (+0.8/1s)
AT/Williams (1.2-1.5s)

Not really sure about that Alpine prediction, purely going off the positivity and comments from the team.

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Mr5in1
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Joined: 20 Jul 2012, 11:33

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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ali623 wrote:
27 Feb 2023, 13:00
ali623 wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 12:15
Red Bull/Ferrari
Mercedes (+0.2/3s)
Alpine (+0.6/7s)
McLaren/AM (+0.8/9s)
Haas/AR (+1-1.2s)
AT/Williams (1.2-1.5s)
Slightly revising my predictions now testing is over,

Red Bull
Mercedes/Ferrari (+0.2/3s)
Alpine/AM (+0.6/7s)
McLaren/Haas/AR (+0.8/1s)
AT/Williams (1.2-1.5s)

Not really sure about that Alpine prediction, purely going off the positivity and comments from the team.
I agree wholeheartedly with your revision in the pecking order and I am also very curious to see how Alpine go in the race, I liked their confidence in not dropping fuel or running softer tyres in testing.

The only other one I'm unsure of is McLaren I really don't think they are slowest but I'm not sure where they are in the mid pack so difficult to guess

Sofa King
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Joined: 18 Mar 2022, 15:15

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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This season should be very different to 2022 due to three factors:

1) The teams understand the cars much better, which will lead to the lower performance dispersion we are already seeing and makes it more likely it will take much less points to win the WDC and constructors.

2) The initial pecking order is less important this year due to the different dispersion in points. With 23 races and 6 sprints, the theoretical maximum a driver can achieve is 646 points vs 572 least year. However, in 2023, only 12% of the points over 3 races will be awarded in the next 2 months vs. 19% over 4 races including a sprint during the same period in 2022. We all saw how dramatically different the season ended vs. the results after 3 races in 2022. There is a big window to develop and mix up the order between now and the end of April regardless the results over the next three races.

3) With the engine freeze, we are much closer to the maximum performance for this formula than we were at this time last year. Along with the cost cap and wind tunnel time, that should make it tougher for Red Bull carry and maintain its relative performance advantage from 2022 throughout.

It also seems many teams, except for Mercedes, gave up on 2022 early due to Red Bull dominance and shifted focus to development for this car. I suspect Mercedes has accepted this reality and is why we are already hearing about a big upgrade that won’t come until Baku or Imola, but unlike last year, with the porpoising under control and a more stable platform, the big upgrade rumored for last year will actually happen this year. Similar to last year, they may be closer to the 4th and 5th place teams initially than the top two. I’d also be very surprised if Ferrari, which shifted focus to 2023 early and under better management, will remain behind Red Bull for long.

With that in mind, I mostly agree with Ali623’s pecking order with a few minor adjustments

Red Bull
Ferrari (+0.1s)
Mercedes (+0.4s)
AM (+0.5s)
Alpine (+0.6/7s)
AR (+0.9s)
McLaren/Haas (+1.1/2s)
AT/Williams (1.4/5s)
Mr5in1 wrote:
27 Feb 2023, 16:34
ali623 wrote:
27 Feb 2023, 13:00
ali623 wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 12:15
Red Bull/Ferrari
Mercedes (+0.2/3s)
Alpine (+0.6/7s)
McLaren/AM (+0.8/9s)
Haas/AR (+1-1.2s)
AT/Williams (1.2-1.5s)
Slightly revising my predictions now testing is over,

Red Bull
Mercedes/Ferrari (+0.2/3s)
Alpine/AM (+0.6/7s)
McLaren/Haas/AR (+0.8/1s)
AT/Williams (1.2-1.5s)

Not really sure about that Alpine prediction, purely going off the positivity and comments from the team.
I agree wholeheartedly with your revision in the pecking order and I am also very curious to see how Alpine go in the race, I liked their confidence in not dropping fuel or running softer tyres in testing.

The only other one I'm unsure of is McLaren I really don't think they are slowest but I'm not sure where they are in the mid pack so difficult to guess

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Artur Craft
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Joined: 05 Feb 2010, 15:50

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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DChemTech wrote:
27 Feb 2023, 12:37

Disagree that the others don't matter - especially when it comes to pecking order predictions. The top 3 is (Relatively) easy - the rest is the more challenging part of the prediction (and with that, the more 'fun' to see who gets it right or wrong).
Yes, the bottom is much harder to guess but, because I don´t have time to analyse things, I´ll just stick with the front runners this time around. The best I could say is that I have an impression that Mclaren and Alpine have built quite underwhelming cars and Williams will be a bit less horrible. AM seems to remain a strong midfielder and Haas less so.

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BorisTheBlade
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Joined: 21 Nov 2008, 11:15
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Sofa King wrote:
27 Feb 2023, 19:41
This season should be very different to 2022 due to three factors:
[...]
I agree with almost everything you wrote, except maybe only a littlebit for the early shift by almost everyone.

Especially for all the other points I would like to know if the predictions should generally be considered to be end-of-season predictions, if not stated otherwise?

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dren
226
Joined: 03 Mar 2010, 14:14

Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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I think the Alpine is going to be better than expected.
Honda!

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