The whole exercise started with odds from the Skybet page. They were showing the top seven drivers in a column as you can see on the screen shot in post 1 and I jotted them down. So it is just coincidence that it was cut off at seven. I also noticed that from 8th place the odds went up considerably at Bwin also seen in a screen shot in post 1. You basically had Hamilton, Alonso, Schumacher, Vettel in one class followed by Button, Massa and Rosberg. Then the odds became much higher. So this is why Webber isn't in there. The bookies gave him an outside chance only. If the names of the top seven change I will have to add names anyway. So if the Newey car is good and Ferrari's is crap expect to see Webber in the top seven and Massa drop out.Chaparral wrote:Ciro one issue only - you have included both drivers from the Ferrari, Mercedes & Mclaren teams but your saying Webber is incapable of competing for the title this year yet you include Vettel - sorry I dont get it
Which means Alonso outscoring Massa is twice as likely as Massa outscoring Alonso. It appears ok to me to expect that.richard_leeds wrote:Also surprised to see Massa so low down. William Hill has Massa to out score Alonso at 2.75, other way around is 1.4.
Chap, I simply took the info from the poll in this thread, I'm not stating anything about Mr. Webber. I did not start this poll: see the explanation by WB about why he choosed those seven names, please. I'm simply demonstrating that a comparison between the odds of some betting sites and the odds of this poll shows them in agreement, given the sample size.Chaparral wrote:Ciro one issue only - you have included both drivers from the Ferrari, Mercedes & Mclaren teams but your saying Webber is incapable of competing for the title this year yet you include Vettel - sorry I dont get it
I see "The Boss" has gained some traction on our pollBy averaging we could even produce "world" odds. The world odds would still show Hamilton as the leader while the poll of the forumers show Alonso with a big lead today.
So what we learn today is that the most active forumers are leanining more towards Fernando Alonso than the average world F1 punter.
Now I'm not surprised for getting flak for my germanic preferences.
Saward makes some good points there but he also has his blind spots. The rest of the world certainly has Michael Schumacher and Sebastian Vettel in the top ranking list. Massa is a real nice guy but most punters do not give him a bigger chance at glory than Button who is also second ranked in the world odds compared to the perceived McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull top drivers.January 15, 2010 by joesaward
Pairing up Felipe Massa and Fernando Alonso at Ferrari is creating the potential for trouble; just as McLaren putting Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton in the same team is a big risk for the Woking team. Much will depend on the emotional dynamics between the men involved – which is what promises to make this one of the most interesting Formula 1 seasons for many years. It is fair to say that until we see how Michael Schumacher does on his return to F1, the top four men in F1 at the moment are Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa (in alphabetical order for the moment).
There is much debate in F1 circles as to how these four should be ranked in terms of being the best driver. Many think that Hamilton is the man on the top rung, with Alonso just behind him and Massa third. This ranking is based primarily on what happened at McLaren in 2007 when Alonso and Hamilton went head to head – and it all ended in tears. Both have battled lesser team-mates since then.
In 2007 Alonso did not react well to being beaten by Hamilton. The Spaniard appears to truly believe that the McLaren team favoured Hamilton, despite the fact that such an approach made no sense at all for the team at the time. Fernando’s reaction was cataclysmic for all concerned and his reputation took a huge dive as a result of his efforts to get the team to treat him as the number one. He says that he has never asked for number one status, but one might argue that telling team boss Ron Dennis that he would tell the FIA about Ferrari data being used by McLaren if Hamilton was not slowed down was more a demand than a request. And, in any case, Dennis dealt with it as one would expect and called the Spaniard’s bluff. Whether he likes it or not, Alonso gained his reputation for controversy as a result of that. He likes to think that most people remember him for two World Championships and that only “a minority” still bring up the controversies of the past.
“My reputation is built on two World Championships and working well on developing the car technically,” he says. “It’s only a minority who go on about controversy.”
Perhaps. But then again if you ask around F1 how many people think that Alonso did not know what was going on in Singapore 2008, you would be hard-pressed to find anyone sensible. There was, of course, no evidence of his involvement and so he was cleared in that disgraceful interlude. He won the race and still thinks of the victory as just as valid as any other in his career.
His new team-mate Felipe Massa remembers Singapore 2008 in a rather different way. He has talked to Nelson Piquet and to Flavio Briatore about what happened in Singapore and says that both tried to laugh it off. To Massa it was not a laughing matter but there is nothing he can do about it. Interestingly, he says he has not discussed that race with Alonso. It is probably better thay way. The two men need to work together to get Ferrari back to the front in 2010 and both men understand that getting into a fight will not help the Ferrari cause, nor be positive for either of their careers. But you can bet that Massa has a little extra motivation to beat Fernando. To do that would move him up the F1 ladder… which in itself would a victory.
Alonso may be able to rely on his legendary speed to beat Massa, but if he finds that this is not quite enough, he is going to need to develop a lot more strength of character than was seen in 2007 if he is to hold it all together. Having an adoring chorus of Spanish pressmen serenading him is all well and good, but it will not be enough if things start flying out of control. Fernando’s only serious opposition from a team-mate (after he had learned the F1 ropes) came from Hamilton and that ended badly. Massa has endured being dumped by Sauber, has played second fiddle to Michael Schumacher, has lived through the disappointment of Interlagos 2008 with grace and elegance. And he saw off Kimi Raikkonen. Now, he is back from a very serious accident – and the steel in his bones is tempered. He is not going to fold up like a house of cards if the going gets tough.
Fernando has grown and developed since 2007 but his path has not been that hard. With Nelson Piuqet Jr as his team-mate his only real problem was that his Renault was not a competitive machine. As Massa said at Madonna di Campiglio you learn from the hard times not from winning. Alonso needs to show that what happened in 2007 will not happen again. He needs to see off Massa’s challenge or be be cool and calm if Felipe does prove to be quicker.
Down at McLaren we have a similarly fascinating play-off between Hamilton and Button. Both men are World Champions and both have their reputations on the line. If Button beats Hamilton he will move into a new stellar orbit. And Hamilton wants to stay on the top step.
Add to the mixture the power of Red Bull Racing, the unknown Cosworth engine in the hands of Williams, Michael Schumacher at Mercedes (nee Brawn) and we have the makings of a really great F1 season.
That would indeed be the best outcome. I think we will have that but the big question will be the strenght of the cars from the big four teams. How will they line up on the grid? Just 60 days to find out and three more updates of the odds. Will they change massively with the results of the tests? I think they will.raceman wrote:let's hope we do not, but instead have some good racingWhiteBlue wrote:we will have interesting law suits.