Analysis of 2010 WDC and WCC Odds

Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.

Who will win the 2010 WDC

Hamilton
34
27%
Schumacher
12
10%
Alonso
36
29%
Vettel
20
16%
Button
9
7%
Massa
10
8%
Rosberg
4
3%
 
Total votes: 125

User avatar
Ciro Pabón
106
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

You can calculate the odds and the error of your predictions: it depends on the size of your sample.

A first estimate of the error you have in your "handful" (ehem) of forumers, given the small sample size of your poll is this:

Image

Not bad, if you ask me. All the results of the poll (the thin black bars), taking in account the margin of error, are in agreement with the betting averages you posted (the blue and fucsia diamonds). You can see that there is a bias, nonetheless. That's trivial: you should linearize or resample.
Ciro

User avatar
Chaparral
0
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: New England District NSW Australia

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

Ciro one issue only - you have included both drivers from the Ferrari, Mercedes & Mclaren teams but your saying Webber is incapable of competing for the title this year yet you include Vettel - sorry I dont get it :)
The music business is a cruel and shallow money trench, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free and good men die like dogs - there's also the negative side' - Hunter S Thompson

User avatar
raceman
0
Joined: Sat Jul 25, 2009 7:57 am
Location: Pune, India

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

IMO, Webber is good in a supporting role, but Vettel has the possible 'potential' for a WDC and this is what we saw in 2009

isn't it?

User avatar
WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

Chaparral wrote:Ciro one issue only - you have included both drivers from the Ferrari, Mercedes & Mclaren teams but your saying Webber is incapable of competing for the title this year yet you include Vettel - sorry I dont get it :)
The whole exercise started with odds from the Skybet page. They were showing the top seven drivers in a column as you can see on the screen shot in post 1 and I jotted them down. So it is just coincidence that it was cut off at seven. I also noticed that from 8th place the odds went up considerably at Bwin also seen in a screen shot in post 1. You basically had Hamilton, Alonso, Schumacher, Vettel in one class followed by Button, Massa and Rosberg. Then the odds became much higher. So this is why Webber isn't in there. The bookies gave him an outside chance only. If the names of the top seven change I will have to add names anyway. So if the Newey car is good and Ferrari's is crap expect to see Webber in the top seven and Massa drop out.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

Richard
Richard
Moderator
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:41 pm
Location: UK

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

The RB seems underrated, surprised to see such a drop off for Vettel. I wonder what the odds are for Vettel to finish in the top 3?

Also surprised to see Massa so low down. William Hill has Massa to out score Alonso at 2.75, other way around is 1.4.

They also have Button v Schumacher as evens!

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/be ... nship.html

User avatar
WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

richard_leeds wrote:Also surprised to see Massa so low down. William Hill has Massa to out score Alonso at 2.75, other way around is 1.4.
Which means Alonso outscoring Massa is twice as likely as Massa outscoring Alonso. It appears ok to me to expect that.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

User avatar
Ciro Pabón
106
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

Chaparral wrote:Ciro one issue only - you have included both drivers from the Ferrari, Mercedes & Mclaren teams but your saying Webber is incapable of competing for the title this year yet you include Vettel - sorry I dont get it :)
Chap, I simply took the info from the poll in this thread, I'm not stating anything about Mr. Webber. I did not start this poll: see the explanation by WB about why he choosed those seven names, please. I'm simply demonstrating that a comparison between the odds of some betting sites and the odds of this poll shows them in agreement, given the sample size.

There are 25 answers: if somebody had voted for Schumi instead of voting for Alonso, you would get a 4% variation in the results of the poll for those two drivers, so the apparent bias is simply a statistical blip. If you are going to analyze a poll, the first thing you have to know, to judge appropriately the results, is its standard error.

This is simple engineering instead of heated and perhaps empty arguments about the forum having a bias toward non-germans, something that it's simply not true. I could use the same method to prove to you that the forum doesn't care about nationalities, including the one of Mr. Webber. Actually, I spend part of my time here editing comments like "martians are too greenish and you know how green people is hated in Venus" or whatever the poster decides to say about the people of a nation.

If you have to know, I think nations are a way for some people to make money (you call "politicians" to those people).

You, of all the people in the forum, must have heard John Lennon's Imagine. Can you remember, old chap?

"Imagine there's no countries
It isn't hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace".


Well, those lyrics summarize pretty well my opinion about the comments on nationalities around this forum...

And, if I may add, I dislike Schumacher and I like Alonso, altough I'm not fan of any driver. The reason is also simple engineering: spaniards are lovable and that's a fact. For example, let's take a person at random from the forum: me. I'm spaniard and I'm lovable. QED. We have to conclude that the odds of finding a lovable spaniard around this site are 100%!

See? This simple rational, engineering approach shows you why Alonso is in high esteem among the people of this forum and Schumacher is not. Thank heaven for statistics and betting odds.
Ciro

User avatar
Mr Alcatraz
-27
Joined: Sun May 18, 2008 2:10 pm
Location: San Diego Ca. USA

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

By averaging we could even produce "world" odds. The world odds would still show Hamilton as the leader while the poll of the forumers show Alonso with a big lead today.

Image

So what we learn today is that the most active forumers are leanining more towards Fernando Alonso than the average world F1 punter. :lol:

Now I'm not surprised for getting flak for my germanic preferences. :wink:
I see "The Boss" has gained some traction on our poll :lol:



Image
Those who believe in telekinetics raise my hand

User avatar
WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

As a special favor for our Australian friends I have included Mark Webber in the odds. I cannot include him in the forum poll because that would reset the poll back to zero, but perhaps a moderator can do that.

Image
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

marcush.
marcush.
159
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:55 pm

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

if I remember correctly ,last year around this time alonso was also considered clear favourite for clinching the title...the bull stops ,when ... no that is biased ..
lets wait and see ,as those gents are not competing man to man but need a weapon
doing justice to their superhuman talents we are a bit early in slicing up the bear.

User avatar
WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

I also got the series plot going that senna-toleman proposed.

Note that the series chart has only actual values taken on the dates that show data labels. The two entry points were 25.12.09 and 12.01.10.

I am using original decimal world odds and will not bother to convert them to percentage chances. I guess everybody can do that for himself if interested in the matter. Please observe that the lowest odds mean the highest chance of a driver making WDC. So look at the graph as the hurdle the driver has to take. The lower it is the easier he will make it.

Image
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

User avatar
WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

Joe Saward did an interesting piece on the ranking of the top drivers
January 15, 2010 by joesaward
Pairing up Felipe Massa and Fernando Alonso at Ferrari is creating the potential for trouble; just as McLaren putting Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton in the same team is a big risk for the Woking team. Much will depend on the emotional dynamics between the men involved – which is what promises to make this one of the most interesting Formula 1 seasons for many years. It is fair to say that until we see how Michael Schumacher does on his return to F1, the top four men in F1 at the moment are Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa (in alphabetical order for the moment).

There is much debate in F1 circles as to how these four should be ranked in terms of being the best driver. Many think that Hamilton is the man on the top rung, with Alonso just behind him and Massa third. This ranking is based primarily on what happened at McLaren in 2007 when Alonso and Hamilton went head to head – and it all ended in tears. Both have battled lesser team-mates since then.

In 2007 Alonso did not react well to being beaten by Hamilton. The Spaniard appears to truly believe that the McLaren team favoured Hamilton, despite the fact that such an approach made no sense at all for the team at the time. Fernando’s reaction was cataclysmic for all concerned and his reputation took a huge dive as a result of his efforts to get the team to treat him as the number one. He says that he has never asked for number one status, but one might argue that telling team boss Ron Dennis that he would tell the FIA about Ferrari data being used by McLaren if Hamilton was not slowed down was more a demand than a request. And, in any case, Dennis dealt with it as one would expect and called the Spaniard’s bluff. Whether he likes it or not, Alonso gained his reputation for controversy as a result of that. He likes to think that most people remember him for two World Championships and that only “a minority” still bring up the controversies of the past.

“My reputation is built on two World Championships and working well on developing the car technically,” he says. “It’s only a minority who go on about controversy.”

Perhaps. But then again if you ask around F1 how many people think that Alonso did not know what was going on in Singapore 2008, you would be hard-pressed to find anyone sensible. There was, of course, no evidence of his involvement and so he was cleared in that disgraceful interlude. He won the race and still thinks of the victory as just as valid as any other in his career.

His new team-mate Felipe Massa remembers Singapore 2008 in a rather different way. He has talked to Nelson Piquet and to Flavio Briatore about what happened in Singapore and says that both tried to laugh it off. To Massa it was not a laughing matter but there is nothing he can do about it. Interestingly, he says he has not discussed that race with Alonso. It is probably better thay way. The two men need to work together to get Ferrari back to the front in 2010 and both men understand that getting into a fight will not help the Ferrari cause, nor be positive for either of their careers. But you can bet that Massa has a little extra motivation to beat Fernando. To do that would move him up the F1 ladder… which in itself would a victory.

Alonso may be able to rely on his legendary speed to beat Massa, but if he finds that this is not quite enough, he is going to need to develop a lot more strength of character than was seen in 2007 if he is to hold it all together. Having an adoring chorus of Spanish pressmen serenading him is all well and good, but it will not be enough if things start flying out of control. Fernando’s only serious opposition from a team-mate (after he had learned the F1 ropes) came from Hamilton and that ended badly. Massa has endured being dumped by Sauber, has played second fiddle to Michael Schumacher, has lived through the disappointment of Interlagos 2008 with grace and elegance. And he saw off Kimi Raikkonen. Now, he is back from a very serious accident – and the steel in his bones is tempered. He is not going to fold up like a house of cards if the going gets tough.

Fernando has grown and developed since 2007 but his path has not been that hard. With Nelson Piuqet Jr as his team-mate his only real problem was that his Renault was not a competitive machine. As Massa said at Madonna di Campiglio you learn from the hard times not from winning. Alonso needs to show that what happened in 2007 will not happen again. He needs to see off Massa’s challenge or be be cool and calm if Felipe does prove to be quicker.

Down at McLaren we have a similarly fascinating play-off between Hamilton and Button. Both men are World Champions and both have their reputations on the line. If Button beats Hamilton he will move into a new stellar orbit. And Hamilton wants to stay on the top step.

Add to the mixture the power of Red Bull Racing, the unknown Cosworth engine in the hands of Williams, Michael Schumacher at Mercedes (nee Brawn) and we have the makings of a really great F1 season.
Saward makes some good points there but he also has his blind spots. The rest of the world certainly has Michael Schumacher and Sebastian Vettel in the top ranking list. Massa is a real nice guy but most punters do not give him a bigger chance at glory than Button who is also second ranked in the world odds compared to the perceived McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull top drivers.

The chances that Red Bull come up with a top aerodynamical car are higher in my view than Williams surprising with a strong Cosworth engine.

And the chance that Ferrari produces a dog are eminent when viewed against their 2009 performance. If that happens Alonso will blow a completely different tune IMO. He isn't the guy who gets his head down and works with the team. He will go back to having his Monday lunches with Spanish journos and spill the beans to them as he did at McLaren. If this happens Ferrari will give him the Reikkonen treatment and we will have interesting law suits.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

User avatar
raceman
0
Joined: Sat Jul 25, 2009 7:57 am
Location: Pune, India

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

WhiteBlue wrote:we will have interesting law suits.
let's hope we do not, but instead have some good racing

[-o<

User avatar
WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

raceman wrote:
WhiteBlue wrote:we will have interesting law suits.
let's hope we do not, but instead have some good racing

[-o<
That would indeed be the best outcome. I think we will have that but the big question will be the strenght of the cars from the big four teams. How will they line up on the grid? Just 60 days to find out and three more updates of the odds. Will they change massively with the results of the tests? I think they will.

planned testing updates

03.02.10
20.02.10
28.02.10

planned after race updates

++14.03.10 ++28.03.10 ++04.04.10 ++18.04.10 ++09.05.10 ++16.05.10 ++30.05.10 ++13.06.10 ++27.06.10 ++11.07.10 ++25.07.10 ++01.08.10 ++29.08.10 ++12.09.10 ++26.09.10 ++10.10.10 ++24.10.10 ++07.11.10
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

User avatar
WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

Post

I decided to do another update although not much has changed but the number of votes on F1technical

Image

The UK odds are unchanged but the German and Spanish odds show some movement. I will comment in the next picture.


Image

In the world odds Hamilton has slightly improved, Alonso as well but of the front runners Schumacher the most. Vettel remained static, Button and Massa improved. Rosberg remained pretty static and Webber showed an improvement on relatively bad chances with long odds above 20.


Image

F1technical voting continued strong in numbers but not with a revolutionary trend. Alonso has now fallen behind Hamilton as in the world odds but Schumacher is massively under represented in the F1technical view compared to the world view. Perhaps Ciro can run his analysis again if this is still within the statistic error probability.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)