Analysis of 2010 WDC and WCC Odds

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Who will win the 2010 WDC

Hamilton
34
27%
Schumacher
12
10%
Alonso
36
29%
Vettel
20
16%
Button
9
7%
Massa
10
8%
Rosberg
4
3%
 
Total votes: 125

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Mr Alcatraz
-27
Joined: Sun May 18, 2008 2:10 pm
Location: San Diego Ca. USA

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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Fred, Lewis 4 to 1 according to this site!
Which is pretty consistent with previous data?

http://www.racingpost.com/news/sport/fe ... ar/676042/

and a little side action between Massa and Fred, sort of :wtf:
2008 title runner-up Felipe Massa returns to the Ferrari cockpit for testing next month, having missed much of last season through injury. The bookmakers don't rate his chances against Alsonso, though, with the Brazilian on offer at 12-1. Hills rate Massa a 7-4-shot to outscore Alonso over the 19-race season.
Those who believe in telekinetics raise my hand

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WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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In order to make any meaningful comparisons it makes sense to look at the pre selected three bookies in Britain, Germany and Spain. I could have selected Ladbroke or Williams Hill easily, but nobody proposed to do that.

I'm aware that there are always deviations from bookie to bookie. So what can we learn from the data posted?
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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Mr Alcatraz
-27
Joined: Sun May 18, 2008 2:10 pm
Location: San Diego Ca. USA

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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WhiteBlue wrote:In order to make any meaningful comparisons it makes sense to look at the pre selected three bookies in Britain, Germany and Spain. I could have selected Ladbroke or Williams Hill easily, but nobody proposed to do that.

I'm aware that there are always deviations from bookie to bookie. So what can we learn from the data posted?
I haven't been studying that closely. This is an article that just popped up on Newsnow.co.uk.
I lived is Las Vegas for several years and used to bank at the sports books! Im over it now however. My post is basically anecdotal I think the 7-4 Alonso Massa line is ineresting. Almost a 2 to 1 against FM. Thats all! No critical data here.
Just being my charming self! :lol:
Those who believe in telekinetics raise my hand

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WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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Tazio wrote:
WhiteBlue wrote:In order to make any meaningful comparisons it makes sense to look at the pre selected three bookies in Britain, Germany and Spain. I could have selected Ladbroke or Williams Hill easily, but nobody proposed to do that.

I'm aware that there are always deviations from bookie to bookie. So what can we learn from the data posted?
I haven't been studying that closely. This is an article that just popped up on Newsnow.co.uk.
I lived is Las Vegas for several years and used to bank at the sports books! Im over it now however. My post is basically anecdotal I think the 7-4 Alonso Massa line is ineresting. Almost a 2 to 1 against FM. Thats all! No critical data here.
Just being my charming self! :lol:
wow, Vegas for living must be something special. I'm up to my neck in snow for weeks.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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Chaparral
0
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: New England District NSW Australia

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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I'm up to my neck in snow for weeks.
WB you have to rid yourself of the habit "santa snow" screws up your nasal passages its bad news dude :lol: :lol:

OK heres a bold offer I am willing to put a $100 lottery ticket up for grabs on Webber finishing in the top 3 this year - any takers
The music business is a cruel and shallow money trench, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free and good men die like dogs - there's also the negative side' - Hunter S Thompson

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Mr Alcatraz
-27
Joined: Sun May 18, 2008 2:10 pm
Location: San Diego Ca. USA

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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WhiteBlue wrote:
Tazio wrote:
WhiteBlue wrote:In order to make any meaningful comparisons it makes sense to look at the pre selected three bookies in Britain, Germany and Spain. I could have selected Ladbroke or Williams Hill easily, but nobody proposed to do that.

I'm aware that there are always deviations from bookie to bookie. So what can we learn from the data posted?
I haven't been studying that closely. This is an article that just popped up on Newsnow.co.uk.
I lived is Las Vegas for several years and used to bank at the sports books! Im over it now however. My post is basically anecdotal I think the 7-4 Alonso Massa line is ineresting. Almost a 2 to 1 against FM. Thats all! No critical data here.
Just being my charming self! :lol:
wow, Vegas for living must be something special. I'm up to my neck in snow for weeks.
It was something special alright!
I won’t go into details but I had a lot of fun during the stretch I did there in the 80's
As for the climate, it sucks!
Way to hot in the summer, and miserably cold and windy in the winter.
I guess that's relative.
My home is San Diego, and the only time I put a jacket on is to ride my cycle :mrgreen:
Those who believe in telekinetics raise my hand

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Chaparral
0
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: New England District NSW Australia

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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For what its worth here are the Australian TAB odds at this stage for each of your $1 bets.

FORMULA 1 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS (courtesy of www.tab.com.au)
Lewis Hamilton 4.00
Fernando Alonso 4.50
Michael Schumacher 4.50
Sebastian Vettel 6.50
Jenson Button 8.00
Felipe Massa 10.00
Mark Webber 10.00
Nico Rosberg 12.00
Rubens Barrichello 51.00
Robert Kubica 51.00
Nico Hulkenberg 67.00
Timo Glock 126.00
Adrian Sutil 126.00
Jarno Trulli 126.00
Heikki Kovalainen 151.00
Vitantonio Liuzzi 151.00
Bruno Senna 151.00
Sebastien Buemi 201.00
Lucas di Grassi 201.00
Jaime Alguersuari 251.00
The music business is a cruel and shallow money trench, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free and good men die like dogs - there's also the negative side' - Hunter S Thompson

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WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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The German bookie BWIN will give you three times the money on Webber. They are included in the world odds by 33,3%.
https://www.bwin.com/

Michael Schumacher 4.00
Fernando Alonso 4.25
Lewis Hamilton 5.35
Sebastian Vettel 7.00
Nico Rosberg 14.00
Felipe Massa 16.00
Jenson Button 16.00
Mark Webber 30.00
Robert Kubica 31.00
Nick Heidfeld 51.00
Rubens Barrichello 70.00
Kamui Kobayashi 81.00
Nico Hülkenberg 101.00
Bruno Senna 101.00
Timo Glock 101.00
Heikki Kovalainen 151.00
Jarno Trulli 151.00

After the Valencia test I will run a big update for all odds. At the moment Hamilton leads the odds in the UK, Schumacher in Germany and Alonso in Spain. :o
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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I'm preparing a planned update after 6 p.m. when the betting sites have done their updates for today.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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Image

There are significant changes with all three selected national bookies after the first test session.


Image


Hamilton continues to loose ground from his initial favorite position to Alonso and Schumacher who both managed to improve to the level where Hamilton started. Alonso must be profiting from the good testing times the Ferrari could demonstrate, while Schumacher managed to kill off most concerns about his injury and immediate capability to go fast again.

The tier two group sees significant change, only Vettel remains pretty much where he was with a slight improvement. This corresponds with what we have seen from the other three top teams before they tested. Rosberg improves significantly although he was twice slower than Schumacher. People must have seen him much worse than he actually is. Rosberg takes a lot of support from Button who plunges deep as the world seems to loose confidence in the McLaren. It seems pretty clear that most people do not see him as a WDC by merit, or he would have started with much lower odds. Personally I don't see the bad perception of the McLaren justified. They did successful flow-viz tests on their mega diffusor and set their times with significant fuel loads. Massa did well in the Ferrari and stopped any concern about his injury. I see Massa lead the tier two section in the future if Vettel joins tier one. That will most likely happen if the Red Bull is only half as good as the last years car. Webber improves and catches up with Button and Rosberg and has now fully arrived in tier two.
Last edited by WhiteBlue on Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

Pierre6
Pierre6
0
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2008 1:57 pm

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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Fascinating to see all these changes keeping in mind we've only seen the first test! =D>

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WhiteBlue
92
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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Image

I have abandoned the forum poll compared to the world odds. The F1Technical poll has a so much bigger data base that it seems to be more sensible.

The comparison shows that F1Technical voters see Hamilton stronger after the first test than the average world punter. I would agree with that view. McLaren are likely to show more performance soon. I don't know why they are slower than Ferrari but they may be systematically running higher fuel loads.

I see Vettel better represented in the world odds although even that is very much to the low side due to the late arrival of the RB6.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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Roland Ehnström
1
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2008 10:46 am
Location: Sollentuna, Sweden

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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WhiteBlue wrote:Rosberg improves significantly although he was twice slower than Schumacher. People must have seen him much worse than he actually is.
No, Rosberg's odds is a lot higher now, meaning people have lost confidence in him after being slower than Schumacher.

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WhiteBlue
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Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:58 pm
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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Roland Ehnström wrote:
WhiteBlue wrote:Rosberg improves significantly although he was twice slower than Schumacher. People must have seen him much worse than he actually is.
No, Rosberg's odds is a lot higher now, meaning people have lost confidence in him after being slower than Schumacher.
Image

Well spotted!! I was in a hurry Wednesday night. My bad.

Massa is the odd ball from the tier two drivers particularly in comparison with Button. But then people had a higher appreciation of Massa than of Button to start with. The McLaren disapointed in the first test and the Ferrari scored.
Last edited by WhiteBlue on Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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Roland Ehnström
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Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2008 10:46 am
Location: Sollentuna, Sweden

Re: Poll: 2010 WDC/Odds tracking thread

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Well, Massa set the fastest time two days in a row, that explains why his odds are now lower even though he is clearly the #2 driver at Ferrari. But personally I don't see any way how Massa could become world champion if Alonso isn't injured or something, so a bet on Massa is a waste of money IMO.