How soon can Vettel win 2011 WDC?

[CHT]

5 wins out of 6 race, and with 58 point advantage over 2nd place. Vettel is almost extending 10 points lead per race.

If this trend would to continue, I am guessing that Vettel could be able to seal the WDC in Singapore.

[Diesel]

If Hamilton continues to lose ground like he did in Monaco then it'll be in Monza, possibly even in Spa. Hamilton is the only driver that seems to have an answer, and the only other driver that's won a race so far.

Under Bernie's medal system Vettel could be WDC in Hungary if he wins all the races between then and now.

[noname]

5 wins out of 6 race, and with 58 point advantage over 2nd place. Vettel is almost extending 10 points lead per race.

If this trend would to continue, I am guessing that Vettel could be able to seal the WDC in Singapore.

Button started 2009 season in the same fashion (similarly like Vettel he was not the winner of the 3rd race), yet he did not won any more races that year.

RBR is not a Brown, etc..., but lets wait and see.

[HampusA]

Why is everyone only mentioning Hamilton as the only viable option despite the fact that we are only at race 6 of 19, or 325 more points to collect and lose.

Now obviously i think Vettel will take home the title but just saying it´s a long long way to go before it´s over.

We have Webber who is in the same car, then Button, Hamilton and Alonso. All will do everything they can to not see Vettel run away with it.

[beelsebob]

Why is everyone only mentioning Hamilton as the only viable option despite the fact that we are only at race 6 of 19, or 325 more points to collect and lose.

Now obviously i think Vettel will take home the title but just saying it´s a long long way to go before it´s over.

We have Webber who is in the same car, then Button, Hamilton and Alonso. All will do everything they can to not see Vettel run away with it.

Because the McLaren is the only car that can come anywhere close to the RBR come a track with any high speed corners on it, and because Hamilton has a lead over Button, and doesn't look like letting it slip.

Webber doesn't look like mounting any challenge, nor Button, nor Ferrari – that leaves Hamilton.

[donskar]

Why is everyone only mentioning Hamilton as the only viable option despite the fact that we are only at race 6 of 19, or 325 more points to collect and lose.

Now obviously i think Vettel will take home the title but just saying it´s a long long way to go before it´s over.

We have Webber who is in the same car, then Button, Hamilton and Alonso. All will do everything they can to not see Vettel run away with it.

Fair point; mathematically you are correct. But aside from the old chestnut "anything is possible," do you see a realistic possibility? I don't. Other cars will improve, but Newey won't let the RB stagnate. IMHO only an injury to Vettel will deny him the WDC -- and I do not want to see that (injury) happen.

[Diesel]

Red Bull won't let Webber challenge for the championship now, he's far too far behind and they can't risk nearly losing it like the did last year.

Alonso could potentially mount a challenge, but he really hasn't got the car underneath him and I honestly don't think they are going to catch up this season, he's practically thrown in the towel himself based on recent quotes.

Jenson? He might be an option, but he needs to take bigger risks. I would have liked to have seen him just send one up the inside of Vettel at Monaco, what exactly has Vettel got to lose?

McLaren are clearly the only other team that can challenge Red Bull at the moment, just look at the result at Spain.

Unfortunately, HampusA, Hamilton is the only driver that's actually beaten Vettel - where was Button that day? As much as you may dislike the driver, he's probably the only realistic challenger.

[andrew]

As soon as possible hopefully!

Impossible question to answer. Far too many variables.

[Diesel]

As soon as possible hopefully!

Impossible question to answer. Far too many variables.

There's a suprise

[andrew]

I sincerely apologise for supporting someone you do not approve of.

[raymondu999]

In all fairness I think Diesel meant that you should have made an educated guess; rather than saying it's impossible to answer. I'm thinking that if form continues as such; probably around Monza-Singapore.

[beelsebob]

I make a lot of assumptions here, like hamilton being the only realistic other contender, and things being nice and simple. All of them are false, but the mathematics say...

Assuming everyone else crashes out in every race: 7 more race wins would seal the championship (he would be on 318 with a maximum possible 308 for Hamilton). This is the earliest possible point he could win at.

Assuming he wins and Hamilton is second in every race: 10 more race wins would seal it (he would be on 393 with a maximum possible 390 for Hamilton).

Assuming the McLaren is more competitive in the future and the pair share wins and seconds: 13 more races to finish it off (with 7 wins and 6 seconds he would be on 426 with a possible 411 for Hamilton; with 6 wins and 7 seconds he would be on 419 with a possible 418 for hamilton).

So there you go. My pet bet is on the championship being decided at Sazuka (9 races from now).

[andrew]

In all fairness I think Diesel meant that you should have made an educated guess; rather than saying it's impossible to answer. I'm thinking that if form continues as such; probably around Monza-Singapore.

OK I'll play along. At a random guess it'll be nearer the end of the season. Once the EBD is banned then the Red Bull advantage will sadly diminish.

[CHT]

Why is everyone only mentioning Hamilton as the only viable option despite the fact that we are only at race 6 of 19, or 325 more points to collect and lose.

Now obviously i think Vettel will take home the title but just saying it´s a long long way to go before it´s over.

We have Webber who is in the same car, then Button, Hamilton and Alonso. All will do everything they can to not see Vettel run away with it.

The reason why Vettel can gain an average of almost 10 points per race when the point gap between 1st and 2nd is only 7, is because none of the drivers behind him has got a commanding pace to secure 2nd place.

If this trend continues, I am sure we should be looking at around Singapore.

Btw does anyone know which drivers holds the most win in a season?

[beelsebob]

Why is everyone only mentioning Hamilton as the only viable option despite the fact that we are only at race 6 of 19, or 325 more points to collect and lose.

Now obviously i think Vettel will take home the title but just saying it´s a long long way to go before it´s over.

We have Webber who is in the same car, then Button, Hamilton and Alonso. All will do everything they can to not see Vettel run away with it.

The reason why Vettel can gain an average of almost 10 points per race when the point gap between 1st and 2nd is only 7, is because none of the drivers behind him has got a commanding pace to secure 2nd place.

If this trend continues, I am sure we should be looking at around Singapore.

Btw does anyone know which drivers holds the most win in a season?

Schumacher holds both first and second place with 13 in one season, and 11 in another, respectively he had 72% and 65% of all victories in those seasons and leads on those two stats too.

Mansel is the nearest contender with 9 in a season (56%).

The way this season is progressing I expect Schumachers records are in grave danger.