2011 Points Summary (To be updated race by race)

[raymondu999]

Just taking a look at the points; in case anyone's interested;
Vettel 234
Webber 149
Hamilton 146
Alonso 145
Button 134

Right now there are 200 points to play so it's still very open. It's not possible for Vettel to wrap things up by Monza either. The earliest possibility is Singapore (race 14, 5 races left, 125 to play for). Do note that in all of my calculations I put him up has having clinched the title by 1 point at least; and I don't take into account countback as there are more races left than Vettel has already won this season.

In order for Vettel to wrap things up by the Singapore race chequered flag; he has to, over the next 3 races, outscore:
Webber by 41 points (13.67 average)
Hamilton by 38 points (12.67 average)
Alonso by 37 points (12.33 average)
Button by 26 points (8.66 average)

For him to do so by the Suzuka chequered, he has to outscore (over the next 4 races):
Webber by 16 points (4 average)
Hamilton by 13 points (3.25 average)
Alonso by 12 points (3 average)
Button by 1 point (0.25 average)

By Korea, it changes the picture dramatically, as Vettel just needs to "not lose" points rather than "gain points."
Webber can catch him by 9 points (1.8 average)
Hamilton can catch him by 12 points (2.4 average)
Alonso can catch him by 13 points (2.6 average)
Button can catch him by 24 points (4.8 average)

By India:
Webber can catch him by 34 points (5.67 average)
Hamilton can catch him by 37 points (6.17 average)
Alonso can catch him by 38 points (6.33 average)
Button can catch him by 49 points (8.17 average)

By Abu Dhabi:
Webber can catch him by 59 points (8.43 average)
Hamilton can catch him by 62 points (8.86 average)
Alonso can catch him by 63 points (9 average)
Button can catch him by 74 points (10.57 average)

By Brazil:
Webber can catch him by 84 points (10.5 average)
Hamilton can catch him by 87 points (10.875 average)
Alonso can catch him by 88 points (11 average)
Button can catch him by 99 points (12.375 average)

Now I hope I haven't scared anyone off here; and that you all understand the numbers. Cya in 4 weeks guys. I'll do up one more after Spa

[PlatinumZealot]

I am surprised the engines haven't come into play yet... Do you have any engine information?

[raymondu999]

Eh? Engines? As the title implies it's just a points calculation.

[raymondu999]

Back after the amazing Spa Grand Prix with another points summary.

Standings:
Vettel 259
Webber 167
Alonso 157
Button 149
Hamilton 146

There's 175 to play for; and again, still open. Here are the gaps:

Webber -92
Alonso -102
Button -110
Hamilton -113

It's not possible for Vettel to wrap it up by Monza. Singapore, however… is possible.

In Singapore, there will be 125 points to play for. So. By the Singaporean checkered flag, he has to, over the next TWO races now, outscore:
Webber by 34 points (17 points average)
Alonso by 24 points (12 points average)
Button by 16 points (8 points average)
Hamilton by 13 points (6.5 points average) - a win is 7 points; so winning the next two would knock Hamilton out of the race, even if Hamilton scores 2nd in both races.

For him to do so by the Suzuka checkered, he has to outscore (over the next 3 races):
Webber by 9 points (3 points average).
Webber is the only one "above the curve" in this regard. The others, however, have to catch up a set amount of points. Vettel can let the following happen, and still win:
Alonso has to outscore him by 1 point (.33 average)
Button has to outscore him by 9 points (3 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 12 points (4 average)

By Korea, with only 75 points left on the table, EVERYONE is below the curve. Note that for all the stats below, if the guys outscore him by that number of points, Vettel will be champ by 1 point

Webber has to outscore him by 16 points (4 average)
Alonso has to outscore him by 26 points (6.5 average)
Button has to outscore him by 34 points (8.5 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 37 points (9.25 average)

By India:
Webber has to outscore him by 41 points (8.2 average)
Alonso has to outscore him by 51 points (10.2 average)
Button has to outscore him by 59 points (11.8 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 62 points (12.4 average)

By Abu Dhabi:
Webber has to outscore him by 66 points (11 average)
Alonso has to outscore him by 76 points (12.67 average)
Button has to outscore him by 84 points (14 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 87 points (14.5 average)

By Brazil:
Webber has to outscore him by 91 points (13 average)
Alonso has to outscore him by 101 points (14.43 average)
Button has to outscore him by 109 points (15.57 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 112 points (16 average)

So. Singapore looks unlikely, but if he can gain 9 points (over the next 3 races) over Webber, and not lose any gap towards his other contenders, he WILL be champion, by Suzuka. With FOUR RACES remaining.

Scary isn't it?

Will be back for another scary update in 3 weeks time, after Monza. Ciao!

[Shrieker]

It's over. Even if Vettel does not participate in the remaining 7 races he'll win it. I find it doubtful Webber will be able to score 92 points in 7 races.

[raymondu999]

The McLarens are actually in very real danger of being knocked out of the title race by Singapore

[Lycoming]

I think thats pretty much it. Obviously the math says it can be done, but it requires vettel to fail as much as it requires others to succeed. Vettel only needs 3 more wins in 7 races to secure the title. He needs only 2 wins to knock out Hamilton from the fight. Everybody is in the drop zone.

and lets not forget, although he failed to win at silverstone, hungary, germany and canada, Vettel actually extended his lead in every one of those races except germany. I will be very surprised if he doesnt take title #2 this year, and I suspect that it may be worth their while for Mclaren to shift focus a bit to next year.

[marcush.]

It´s fairly obvious that Vettels campaign is fully on green .Ferrari and Mclaren though they have catched RedBull on out and out speed they have failed to reduce the gap so far.Add to this a uninzerrupted run of points finishes for Seb and Webbo and it´s unlikely the table will turn .RedBull will not waste any energy on developments for 2011 only .The Monza bits are ready ,so the aerodevelopment is 100% on the new car already so in case they find a new direction they could even make adjustments to the tub design if they feel it´s worthwhile..
They already look good for 2012 ...the one void with their kers remaining and that may remain for the years till thew new engine regs are introduced-for which they will prepare and staff intensely.

[raymondu999]

If you linearly extrapolate all of their points now, the two McLarens will be knocked out by Singapore; and Vettel will win the WDC in Suzuka.

[marcush.]

Isn´t it funny that not only Vettel is up on points(+108points!) after Race 12 but also
Webber 6points
Alonso 16points
Button 2points
Schumacher 4points
Petrov 14points
Heidfeld 34points
kobayashi 13points

the losers being of course Kubica -89p ,Rosberg -38p,Massa-23p,Hamilton -11 and sutil -11....

Even more interesting is f the 114 points RedBull gained compared to 2010 -they took away from Ferrari just 7points ,from Mclaren 9points ,from Mercedes 34points and renault 38points and williams 35points...

So in numbers the RedBull dominance is less a failure of Mclaren or Ferrari but owed to Renault Mercedes and Williams not living up to expectations.

RedBull has claimed only one (!) more win compared to last year so far,Mclaren is on the same count as last year for both drivers and Ferrai only 1 instead of two.

The impression Mclaren or Ferrari have fallen back is not correct it is Renault and Mercedes as well as Williams having fallen back what ias producing this huge championship lead for Vettel.Renault only two poiums at the beginning and Mercedes only ever reacjing 4th place finishes at best.
The fact RedBull had at this point already 3 dnfs was of course a big contributor to them not gettinmg the upper hand in the championship due to their pace.The turkey race was a big hit to their championship.

[LionKing]

Top teams are more reliable this year thus they are not giving others much chance to score big points.

[raymondu999]

Yes there is some of that. What I find especially interesting is that Ferrari, and Webber, have effectively been reduced to "super midfielders" that VERY often get podiums, and the rare victory.

I think Alonso, Webber and Button are taking lessons from last year, and enjoying the journey a lot as they just enjoy the kind of midfielder land where there's not much championship pressure. The hamilton situation is rather depressing though. Considering, I believe, that his last year DNFs at this point in the year have been due to reliability (Spain; wheel failure, and Hungary; gearbox) while this year he has had better reliability but have had 2 DNFs due to on-track events.

[raymondu999]

WOW! What an Italian Grand Prix! Back, with another points summary

Standings:
Sebastian Vettel 284
Fernando Alonso 172 (-112)
Jenson Button 167 (-117)
Mark Webber 167 (-117)
Hamilton Hamilton 158 (-126)

Let's see now. There's 150 to play for; with 125 at the end of the Singaporean Grand Prix. This means that it is entirely plausible, and possible, that Sebastian can and will seal the title in Singapore.

VERY VERY CRUCIALLY, there are now 6 races left. This means that the maximum number of wins a rival could have this year is 8; and Sebastian has more than enough 2nd places to beat the countback to his rivals. That means he has to achieve a gap of 125 rather than 126 in Singapore to WIN THE TITLE.

Hamilton Hamilton is in dire trouble - if Hamilton finishes BEHIND Sebastian in Singapore; he will be knocked out of the title race - will he be asked to play support for Button then? Will he?

For him to clinch the title in the next race in Singapore, he must outscore:
Fernando by 13 points
Webber by 8 points
Button by 8 points
Equal Hamilton

As a win is 7 points over 2nd; that means that a win is not enough for Vettel. If Webber or Button comes second; Vettel CANNOT clinch the title)

For what it's worth, for him to clinch the title in Suzuka, with 100 to play for after the race, he can let the following happen and still be the champion:
Fernando can outscore him by 12 points (6 average)
Webber/Button can outscore him by 17 points (8.5 average)
Hamilton can outscore him by 26 points (13 average)

For Korea, with 75 points to play for after the race ends,
Fernando can outscore him by 37 points (12.33 average)
Webber & Button can outscore him by 42 points (14 average)
Hamilton can outscore him by 51 points (17 average)

For India, with 50 points to play for after the race ends,
Fernando can outscore him by 62 points (15.5 average)
Webber/Button can outscore him by 67 points (16.75 average)
Hamilton can outscore him by 76 points (19 average)

For Abu Dhabi, with 25 points to play for after the race ends,
Fernando can outscore him by 87 points (17.4 average)
Webber/Button can outscore him by 92 points (18.4 average)
Hamilton can outscore him by 101 points (20.2 average)

For Brazil, being the last race,
Fernando can outscore him by 112 points (18.67 average)
Webber/Button can outscore him by 117 points (19.5 average)
Hamilton can outscore him by 126 points (21 average)

It's worth noting at this point that IF THE INDIAN GRAND PRIX REALLY IS IN TROUBLE; SEBASTIAN VETTEL IS THE 2011 WORLD CHAMPION ALREADY

For Sebastian to clinch the title in Singapore!!
If he wins;
Fernando has to finish 4th, maximum
Jenson/Webber has to finish 3rd, maximum (If either finishes 2nd though; that means Vettel just has to take 1 point on them again)

If he comes 2nd;
Fernando has to finish 8th, maximum (yeah right; like Nando will finish 8th in Singapore)
Jenson/Webber has to finish 5th, maximum
Hamilton can't win

If he comes 3rd;
Fernando has to finish 9th, maximum
Jenson/Webber has to finish 7th, maximum

If he comes 4th;
Fernando has to finish 10th, maximum
Jenson/Webber has to finish 8th, maximum

If he comes 5th, no title yet.

No matter what happens, Lewis must finish ahead of Sebastian here.

Alrighty. Seeya in 2 weeks folks!

[ESPImperium]

Just done some maths (or altered some feilds in my data charts) and have came to the alternitive* title championship:

Alonso: 214
Webber: 209
Button: 199
Hamilton: 191
Vettel: 115
Massa: 102
Rosberg: 72
Schumacher: 69
Petrov: 46
Heidfeld: 46
Kobiyashai: 38
Sutil: 34
Alguersauri: 24
Buemi: 22
Di Resta: 18
Perez: 12
Barichello: 8
Senna: 4
Maldanado: 2

Constructors:
McLaren-Mercedes: 390
Red Bull-Renault: 324
Ferarri: 316
Mercedes: 141
Renault: 96
Force India-Mercedes: 52
Sauber-Ferarri: 50
Toro Rosso-Ferarri: 46
Team Lotus-Renault: 0
Hispania-Cosworth: 0
Virgin-Cosworth: 0


* By alternitive, Exclude Vettels wins and include all the wins of the rest.

[raymondu999]

What is this alternative title championship? As in... what did you do to the numbers exactly? And what do they show?