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turbof1 wrote:In all honesty, he'd recover in time from that to score the necessary points. Remember Niki Lauda? That guy got horribly burned, but was back in the car after several weeks.
I don't think that is going to happen.... ever again. I am saying this after seeing what happened to Alonso this winter. FIA doesn't allow a driver to race if they do not see the driver fit enough to race. If this was the stance back in 76, Niki would have never raced again, at least for a year. Anyway, Niki was one hell of an animal to have come back within weeks of his accident to race again. Although he spoke of % of risk blah blah blah, but when his ego got hurt seeing James win in his absence, he threw his philosophy to dust bin. He simply represented an age and a crop of human beings who were truly gladiators, "Hell with the safety, I am here to race".
Not to minimize any of that heroïc deed of Niki, and you are perhaps correct that FIA would not allow Lewis to race, but I think Lewis would do the same. Or atleast try to. If Hamilton would ever get into that situation, he has Niki Lauda to pull himself back up, both as an ideal as the physical person.
Fulcrum wrote:1 in 500 (assuming Rosberg or Vettel) is the bookie's equivalent of almost never, so Hamilton would need to experience something completely unprecedented to not win from this position.
Hamilton is out walking and Roscoe drags him off balance, causing an injury that prevents him from racing.
Now that would be unprecedented!
Indeed... So.. hamilton breaks a limb; he has a few weeks to heal and get back in time for Abu Dhabi.
With a 66 and 73 point lead for his two nearest rivals to overcome they have three races to party before daddy comes home.
It might go something like this:
USA Mexico are straight power tracks so Rosberg gains 50 points there.. Vettel gains 36.Pascal Weirlein makes a good showing but he is not fast enough to crash into Vettel. Hams lead is now cut down to 23 points..
In Brazil the twisty nature of the track give rise to a white knuckle fight between VET and ROS. Vettel comes out on top ROS trails. HAMS lead is now cut to 5 points with Vettel and Rosberg level on points.
Come Abudahbi the BOSS is back in the building... 5 points is all there is in it.. The winner takes it all...
Now.. Hamilton might not be fit enough to beat an on form Rosberg. He has to wish for a Rosberg DNF... this is actually very likely to happen because Rosberg and Vettel will have engine trouble because they delayed their engine changes in fear of giving away points to each other.. So Hamilton is the only one with a fresh ready to go 2016 engine on straight power track. This might the making of the best comeback of all times... all because of a spoiled bulldog.
Phil wrote:I think the biggest asset Lewis has, is that he only needs to beat Rosberg. Once that is accomplished, Rosberg will inadvertently help him by simply trying to win himself and beats Vettel in the process. In other words, assuming Hamilton wins next race, Vettel 2nd (stays in contention) and Rosberg is out, Hamilton could then go and DNF the remaining 3 races and Rosberg really just has to beat Vettel once (and prevent him from scoring) for Hamilton to still bag it.
Still, as a Lewis fan, I'm prepared for anything to go wrong. Still can't believe he lost the 2007 championship (even though I wasn't rooting for him at all) and that 2008 one was way too close, as was last years. lol.
Totally agree Phil. At this very moment , it seems to be going too smoothly. Some would say the calm before the storm.
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It'll be a very long shot to reach 2007 terms. Not that I am being arrogant, just that the probability of a failure to secure the WDC is below significant values. Yes, yes I know: he had a lead of 17 points going into the final 2 races in 2007. I'm now saying he'll need a lot more bad luck now for that to happen. No I'm not jynxing it.
Going through my analysis again, the circumstances are actually fairly straightforward. Vettel and Rosberg have practically no chance if Hamilton doesn't DNF multiple times. A double DNF only gives them some hope. Even with a triple DNF Hamilton would still be favored by my model, albeit only slightly.
No points from USA, Mexico, Brazil and we have a great finale in Abu Dhabi.
And yes, losing from this position would be more of a long shot than in 2007.
I happen to think that the mental aspect is often overlooked in most sports. It's one thing to have a certain ability to be better than your opponent, but if you don't have the mental toughness to make that count, it's rather meaningless. In some sports, this mental aspect is quite a huge contributing factor, like IMO Tennis, and in other sports, it's perhaps less so (more team orientated sports).
In F1, I think it's quite important too. It requires a lot of confidence and mental toughness to i.e. go for gaps when your strategy depends on making up positions. It also requires confidence to find the right balance in driving/pushing at or close to the limit, but only as far as you can still control what is happening without going too far. Then there is also the point that driving a car with an evolving track, evolving circumstances, tire state, even the car losing weight, fluctuating temperatures makes one lap different from the other. Then to put this together for an all important single lap in Q3 and then to consistently get it right (even when things go less to plan) for the duration of an entire race session can be tough.
Right now, Lewis's gap is immense. It's so large, it's a no-brainer. Practically an impossibility not to take it. But I'm also of the opinion that with such a gap comes also a bit of pressure to complete it. Lewis has been at this point more than a few times already. He was leading it in 2007 with what at the time we could only describe as a dominating lead with two races to go. He did not capitalize. In 2008, it was similar - a very healthy margin going into the last race and it nearly all went wrong. Some might argue, it was more luck than faith securing his first WDC. In 2012 he was also leading the championship at some point - and perhaps the decision to compete until the very last race was taken from him by a very unreliable car and circumstance. 2014, I have no idea how he kept it together with such a history. Perhaps sometimes it's easier to go balls out when you have nothing to lose, and IMO, Lewis last year faced that situation on more than a couple of occasions when bad reliability saw that he was facing an upward battle until the later stages of the championship.
This year should be relatively comfortable one would think. I wouldn't put it past him however if he does experience an unfortunate DNF in Austin - or worse, does not capitalize by a driving error only to see the gap shrink - for this to mess with his mental state a bit. In other words, if he fails to seal it in the next 2 races for whatever unfortunate circumstances, I think it'll be tough - cause Brazil is not his favorite track and going into the last race with having all that pressure rest on you is never easy, even if it's Abu Dhabi where he has been mighty.
Personally, I think Rosberg experienced some of this last year too. He was leading the majority of the races last year and perhaps started to drive a bit too conservatively, thinking that it's better to "play the numbers" then drive all out. Austria was one of such examples, or Hungary too, where Lewis made decisive passes on others where IMO Rosberg just drove a bit too conservatively, knowing how far back Lewis was. Perhaps one of the reasons that cost him the WDC which he was so close of achieving.
Anyway, if luck sees Hamilton not close it out with i.e. 2 DNFs, I expect the mental aspect to come into play quite a bit. And when you are not in the right state, it's difficult to perform at your best. We've seen that last year in qualifying, we've seen it this year in Hungary. But one thing is for sure, that WDC last year has certainly given a big boost of confidence and he'll be hard to beat, even if the last two qualifyings haven't gone his way. And Austin would be an awesome place for him to close it out.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II #Team44 supporter
Mental toughness is probably the biggest differentiating factor in individual sports.
Tennis is a great example. There isn't much separating the best players (Federer, Murray, Djokovic, Nadal - when fit) from the rest, yet they completely dominate the slams. It has to be said though, Tennis has one of the best points scoring systems ever devised. They are constantly faced with 15/30, 30/40, deuce, situations, which are the equivalent of those 3-6ft putts golfers hate so much. If you have the yips, tennis will expose you quickly.
Hamilton doesn't strike me as being mentally weak. He's been to the well before, experienced some bad moments (2007), but usually his issues are not a result of his mistakes only. The gravel episode in China 2007 is an obvious exception, but again, it wouldn't have happened under slightly different circumstances if the team had played it safe.
If Hamilton hadn't won in 2008, perhaps we'd be having a different conversation. Two near misses followed by 5 years of outside chances would probably wear on anyone's psyche.
The 2nd title seems to have eased some pressure. Maybe his self-expectations are starting to be met? Anyway, I'd still back Hamilton to win, even under the triple DNF scenario let alone a double DNF.
Thanks to Mercedes strategy team, we are still having this discussion. Had Monaco been straight forward for Lewis, he would have been leading Nico by 90 points and Vettel by 79. Nevertheless, we are here talking about it.
As a trend, the second title in consecutive scenario, has been more easier for almost all drivers. It would have been probably same in 2009 for Lewis, if not for a cheeky engineer in Honda (and then defunct to form Brawn) to come out with that double diffuser idea. Again, after a stressful 2014, 2015 has turned out be far more easier for a driver. I guess a lot of things change after the first title. Not just that the first title gives immense confidence to the winning driver, but even the team dynamics fall in line with him, making him de-facto number one, even if it is unsaid.
2009 also had to do with the new rules for the wider front wing. Mclaren did not pick up on the outwash front win till later down in the season.
One thing you can say though is the Lewis hasn't been mentally weak when he failed to win championships in the past or come close to losing them. It was usually a case where he is being guided by the team to get a certain position.
Anyhow, Lewis can be the first British driver to defend his titles. Also the first 3 time English driver. Let's see how it pans out.
I wonder what old Jackie will have to say about Lewis's third title after Lewis spent the whole year having fun with celebrities and going carnival? lol
adrianjordan wrote:I wonder whether Lewis is hoping for a race cancellation or whether he's too much of a racer?
Almost certainly not - the championship is in the bag - all he has to do is score 34 points (no matter what anyone else does) in 4 races. What he'll be after now is the record for most wins in a season.
PlatinumZealot wrote:I wonder what old Jackie will have to say about Lewis's third title after Lewis spent the whole year having fun with celebrities and going carnival? lol
Yes, because that's the only thing he does. Let's forget all the hard work behind the scenes....
