Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

[Vasconia]

Need to remember too that in the case of a DNF where a PU goes kaput then that's points lost at 2 races as there'll likely be a grid penalty for additional PU parts the next round too (unless of course it happens in the last GP).

Also, for all the splenid math I can see (and it is good) I think F1 has too many variables. What if it's dry/wet in Brazil. What is Verstappen splits the mercs in Quali? What if a Merc doesn't win the next 4 races? Taking data of races from 2014-2016 is also a bit skewed as Merc we're far more dominant/bulletproof in '14 & '15 than we've seen this year. By dominant I mean 1-2's. So yes, good maths but this season is a bit different I think.

Would love if Hamilton could claw it back though. Or Rosberg leads by 1 point in the last race so just takes Hamilton out at the start...wonder what would happen then?

It would be a great shitstorm against Nico(I wouldnt like to see Nico doing this) but it wouldnt be the first time. Prost and Senna dit it.

[Formula Wrong]

Need to remember too that in the case of a DNF where a PU goes kaput then that's points lost at 2 races as there'll likely be a grid penalty for additional PU parts the next round too (unless of course it happens in the last GP).

In theory they could still use old parts. Teams are allowed to switch parts which they've already used this season without any penalties if I recall the rules correctly. Mercedes wants to give Rosberg his 5th and (if everything goes as planned) final PU in Austin and if that one breaks down they could still use the one he has been using since Spa (in theory even parts of the ones before) as it is still working.

[Nathanael F1]

All this math makes me anxious for the last few races.

[Phil]

Speaking about the championship and race starts and how this has arguably influenced this years championship...

The clutch is a difficult problem to overcome, because it's something that can't be tested and learned. I.e. if you fail to take a specific corner in the most perfect optimal way and lose time, you can study the telemetry, perhaps your team-mates driving line to perfect that corner on countless and countless of practice runs, during the outlap, the inlap, the qualifying sessions. The starts however are more difficult. The optimal "launch settings" or clutch position might be perfect in one specific spot at a very specific road and air temperature and therefore time of day, but just3 meters to the side of that particular spot, where the grip levels might be different, would result in either too much wheel spin (too much power) or the engine bogs down (too little).

Then we have also seen that how long your car remains in a standing position at the start as the rest of the grid catches up and the green flag is waved to start the countdown can also have a crucial and detrimental impact on how well those settings you might have committed to, work out in your favor. We have seen this a few times, when i.e. the formation lap needed to be repeated and both Mercedes had horrendous starts.

Then I would also expect the throttle response of such an F1 car to be extremely short and narrow, which means that slightly more pressure on the pedal could result in quite a large rpm jump. The gap between too little revs and too much is probably extremely narrow - and that isn't even factoring in what kind of grip levels you are facing on your piece of tarmac on the starting grid or the temperature of your engine and clutch in that specific moment - all the while, all cars are waiting for the lights to go out and the temperatures build up.

Yes, Rosberg seems to be doing a better job and maybe the argument is as simple that he is simply better. Given how much variation we are seeing in starts, especially within that Mercedes, I'm not sure if just a little luck is part of it as well. The margins are just too small for me to put it down to a matter of pure skill. What ever it is; the new rules that were introduced for the new standing procedures were brought in precisely to provoke this unpredictability and considering how many bad starts have influenced this years race winners and overall championship development, it has delivered exactly what it set out do achieve.

The question is; is that what we wanted? And it's a question that F1 as a whole needed to address way back in 2012 as well when we had the lottery tires that provoked different race winners for pretty much the first half of the season. At the time I thought it was great because I was getting tired of the one-sided RedBull affair; but now in hindsight, I do wonder if I really want the race start to yield such a big factor of the overall race. IMO, it has robbed us of many many fascinating races this year. Instead of seeing the ultimate battle of two drivers in equal machinery as we often did in 2014 and 2015, we have now seen one of the Mercedes disappearing after a few corners while the other was making up for lost ground way down the order with no chance and hope at all to recover and battle for the position it should be.


Anyway, the Mercedes seems to be the most affected by it I am wondering what is unique to it. Maybe the Mercedes has a lot more torque in the lower rev range which, during a typical race might yield better fuel economy (because you might have more power further down the rev-range relative to the other engines) but at the same time, a lot of torque around the rev range where you would plan your launch off the line would make it extra difficult to control. I.e. a large jump in torque around that area would mean that just a few revs higher would result in a lot more power, hence wheel spin, where as just slightly below the optimum point would result in too little. Just an idea?

[flynfrog]

Lets keep to the topic in hand points permutations........

[Roman]

Alright, one race down, three to go. Not much has changed with regards to situation between the two championship leaders. Ros is now 26 points in front of Ham (331 - 305).

However, Rosberg can become WDC next weekend if he wins and Ham scores not more than one point. With 2 races and 50 point still to go/grab, he would lead the championship by at least 50 points. Even if Ham would win the last to races and Ros would not score he would be WDC with then 10 wins as opposed to Hams 9.

[Jolle]

I think it's quite simple, Mercedes is so far ahead of the rest of the field, that if Rosberg doesn't have bad luck (a DNF) he's got his first WC in the bag. Even with three average races he will still finish second.

It is quite painful for HAM that if the MAL DNF didn't happen, he would be in the lead right now.

[Manoah2u]

Yes, that is supremely sour.

However, Lauda when asked on Nico 'cruising' 2nd claimed that isnt' the case and that if he doesn't push, he won't make it. I think though he still seems to get a amazing dose of luck,
that is absolutely clear from the US GP. RedBull is right there now in the races. In Qually, Merc is still too strong. Perhaps split them at best. During the race however, RedBull is right
there able to keep up with them, and have their areas where they seem even a bit better.

Meaning, the pressure is on. If RIC or VES finishes in front of ROS, his title chances slim down fast.
Rosberg thus can't 'cruise' calmly to a 2nd spot since 'taking things easy' equals in losing P2 and potentially losing WDC.

In the final corners, Rosberg iirc was just 4.4 seconds behind Lewis, and RIC closely following NICO. Nico was handed a pos for free thanks to VES.
if that did not happen, it would have been RIC at the tail of lewis, and Nico at the tail of DannyRic, and it was rather decided at the start already.
Nico was definately 'afraid' of RIC as he positioned his car at the start as such as to fend off DannyRic. Stupidly enough, the position he manouvred his car into
actually gave DannyRic an open window to pass. Yes, RIC was a bit lucky by the bumpy curbs for Nico there, but he would have been in his DRS . He got out of DRS range in
just moments, only furhter showing that the RB is rather there now.

Next race will be above interesting.

Atleast we still have a WDC on our hands.
If Lewis wins the next one, and a RB gets in between the mercs, then this is going to be super exciting - as long as LEWIS doesnt get another DNF .

With Rosberg 26 points ahead still, he can afford a DNF AND still lead by 1 point if Lewis wins the next race. that would make some exciting last 2 races though.
first blood.

[Fulcrum]

Not a great deal has changed within my model outcomes after this race. The fact of the matter is a Hamilton-Rosberg 1-2 was the likeliest race outcome predicted by the model. Surprised? Me neither.

With respect to title prospects, here are my updated values:

Rosberg's probability of winning prior to Abu Dhabi has dropped from 45% to 39%.
The probability of the title being decided in Abu Dhabi has gone up from 54% to 61%.

Hamilton's has no chance of winning prior to Abu Dhabi anymore. This is the only definitive effect of today's race on the championship permutations. The best Hamilton can hope for is a double DNF for Rosberg, two victories himself, providing a 24 point lead in his favour heading into Abu Dhabi.

Incidentally, the chances of a double DNF for Rosberg and a double win for Hamilton are approximately 0.70%, not as implausible as one might think, but long odds nevertheless.

If the title hasn't been decided in Rosberg's favour prior to Abu Dhabi, the chances of Rosberg winning in Abu Dhabi remain ~ 60%.

With respect to total probability, Rosberg's chances have dropped from 77% to 75%; obviously Hamilton's have increased from 23% to 25%.

In other words, status quo.

[Facts Only]

I think realistically the best we can hope for (from a viewers point of view) is that Hamilton will stay on form and push Rosberg all the way to the last race. I cant see Merc having anymore retirements (its not good at all for image) and I cant see Rosberg throwing it away.

Stranger things have happened though.

I was thinking earlier about what sort of champion Rosberg will be seen as. Alot of people say he is lucky but I dont believe in Luck, you make your own way in life and statistical probabilities cover the rest.

Has anyone totted up ALL of the Merc failures over '14/15/16? I wonder if (and suspect it would) show that Hamilton and Roseberg have suffered fairly even numbers of failures over the 3 seasons but Hamiltons have been heavily weighted to 2016 and Rosbergs more evenly spread over 2014/15.
~Mod snip~

[flynfrog]

Cleaned up the mess please keep on topic.

[ChrisDanger]

So if Hamilton DNFs and Rosberg wins tomorrow the championship will be his.

[Manoah2u]

yes. also if hamilton scores just 1 point (thus ends up 10th).

I think it is of utmost importance to qualify 1st here, and make sure you make a perfect start and be in fresh air. It's not as hot as last year iirc, but there's still a huge wear due to the air 'thinness'.

If lewis ends up driving 2nd or 3rd after the first corner, it's gonna be a hard task as he'll be in hot, dirty air and just like the RB's of Vettel-era, the Mercs seem to suffer when 'behind' another car. With Hamilton having had many technical issues, i can imagine overheating brakes and tire wear having a big impact on performance.
Meaning, if Rosberg goes 1st at the first corners, he'll surely drive away into the distance and make it nearly impossible for Lewis to still get that WDC.

However, if Lewis gets 1st, and drives away into the distance, he'll be just as compromised there as Lewis would be behind a hot car and between the RedBulls, and possibly a Ferrari in the midst of it all.

Last race was a borefest - somehow Austin is mostly boring to me despite being theoretically a super exciting track - except for Lewis winning to keep the WDC alive, and Alonso's moves in the end.

Mexico should prove a great deal much more exciting, i think it was my favourite race last year and things are shaping up to be just as exciting this year. Imagine how exciting Brazil will be if Lewis wins this GP and Nico doesn't make 2nd - or preferably a DNF, to make it an absolute dogs of war fight, and don't get me wrong, i do think Nico has done well this year despite being helped by lewis' bad fortunes and a 'dirty' move or 2 which got disturbingly badly penalised.

IIRC, Lewis has not had the best of luck in Brazil EXCEPT for it being the track where he took the WDC from home-driver Massa (am happy for lewis, but it was sad to see it slip away from Massa, imagine how big the explosion was of being the first Brazilian to win the Brazilian GP AND the WDC as a Brazilian in a FERRARI since Senna, whom never drove for the reds.
I'll be honest, i still believe Massa was robbed of that WDC for several reasons, and offcourse Lewis drove his *ss off and 'earned' that WDC, but he got incredibly lucky that in the last corner the car in front broke down and 'gave him' the WDC.

To this day i wonder how things would have been had Massa won that WDC, he was NOT the same guy AFTER losing the WDC that year, AND then he also got that helmet impact incident where he physically wasn't the same anymore, and then he got treated like cr*p which totally destroyed his mental state. I am sure the Massa of today - prone to 'cry' over any cause - is the result of all that. I was actually surprised to see him jump back so strong in the Williams after being dumped by Ferrari.

Anyway, tables are now turned for Lewis compared to then. Where in Brazil 2008, Lewis snatched the WDC by finishing in the points like he did, Rosberg can snatch it away from him this time if he just finishes high enough in the points behind him.

BTW, i think Ecclestone is a b**ch for his comments on how he'd state 'Rosberg would be better for F1 to win the WDC' as Lewis already is and won't 'change' much whilst a German in the form of Rosberg would bring 'different' interest. Can't argue over how he doesn't have a point there, but I vividly remember him clearly stating Lewis WILL be the WDC again, despite the lead Rosberg had a dozen GP's ago. But meh, what else is new.

[godlameroso]

Ok, I know it's far away, Brazil this year is going to have similar weather to 2012. The track will straddle the line between wet and dry throughout. It's going to be an extremely chaotic race. If there was a race that could shake up the championship it's this one, because let's be honest, Abu Dhabi will be another snoozefest.

[Manoah2u]

Didn't Abu Dhabi in 2012 decide that WDC in favor of Vettel against Alonso whom was held up by Petrov? Wasn't a snoozefest back then!
If the WDC is decided in Brazil, AbuDhabi will be boring.

Brazil is definately going to be a suspensefull race. Usually anything can, may, and WILL happen. Remember Vettel being spun around and in the end making it all the way to the top again?
Kobayashi unlapping against Button the WDC?

Brazil will be spectacular, no matter what happens.

Interestingly, both Lewis and Nico could DNF in a collision and/or technical issue. That would postpone the championship to the last race,
where Lewis still needs to find 20 points over Rosberg to win the WDC.

That equals the NEED to WIN the GP, and Rosberg not making it higher than 8th.

If lewis WINS Brazil and Rosberg 2nd, 355 points vs 367 points, he'll have to make up 13 points over Rosberg to win the WDC.
If Lewis WINS Abu Dhabi, then Rosberg may NOT end up higher than 4th. If lewis comes in 2nd, Nico may not end up higher than 8th.

In other words, if Nico manages to come in 3rd in Abu Dhabi, he WINS the WDC [ be it Lewis wins Brazil and Nico comes in 2nd ].

Lewis would want to see Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo, preferably also Raikkonen or Rosberg, to end up between them in AbuDhabi.
Would be even better for him if either of them got in between them in Brazil, but then Nico may NOT come in higher than 3rd iirc.

Lewis will have to do everything in his power to make sure he will be P1 in Qually in Brazil.
If Nico gets 2nd, he'll be under pressure from Dannyric, Verstappen , etc.

I am confident Mercedes has issued team orders that if Hamilton qualifies in front, Rosberg may NOT aggresively attack him in the first 3 or 4 corners.
After that, it is every man for himself. Vise versa, i think Lewis might get freedom from Mercedes to have a go, except for AbuDhabi, as it would still not
compromise Rosberg's title chances to DNF 1 race and Lewis too. Obviously though, Nico does NOT want a DNF and Lewis making the podium.

Please dont let Lewis have a DNF in Brazil. keep this as exciting as it can be!