LionKing wrote:I don't believe your explanation applies to 2011 at all. Majority of accidents of Lewis that year was with Massa (like 7 of them?). The best result Massa got in 2011 was a few P5's. Massa's territory is positions ~P5-P8. Lewis was not fighting for wins when those accidents happened and almost of those accidents happened behind Button.
Perhaps you are only looking at DNFs, while I'm looking at all incidents that influenced the results. I actually really didn't want to go throught the entire 2011 season, but one things is quite clear: On the majority of tracks, Hamilton outqualified Button. So how did Button end up ahead in points?
Here's an overview:
Malaysia 2011:
In Malaysia, 2nd race of the 2012 championship, Hamilton qualified 2nd, Button 4th. I don't recall the entirety of the race, but accoarding to Wikipedia, Button, Hamilton and Alonso were caught up in a tangle that had Hamilton and Alonso receive a penality, which is probably why they both finished 50 seconds behind Button in 2nd.
Monaco 2011:
Hamilton was extremely unlocky being caught out by Perez's crash. As a result, he wasn't able to set a time Q3, which is why he started 9th (finished 6th), compared to Button who started 2nd and finished 3rd. As we all remember, Hamilton had a very tough race with lots of incidents trying to make up some places. As an extra to consider: Hamilton was setting the pace in Q1 and Q2. I would think there was a high probability that Hamilton would have outqualified Button again here though the gap would have been likely too big to Vettels pole.
Canada 2011:
Well, this one is easy. Both McLarens were likely on a wet-setup and qualifyed outside of their potential in 5th (HAM) and 7th (BUT). After they race, they met on track - Hamilton being quite a bit quicker on the wet track and started to pass Button after he made a mistake through the chicane. Button didn't see his team-mate (who had commited to the pass) and was squashed into the wall causing DNF. I'm willing to bet a fair amount if this had not happened, Hamilton would have finished in front of Button, though this is purely speculation of course. This one must have hurt though - Button took the win while Hamilton walked around with zero points.
Hungary 2011:
Again, Hamilton (2nd) outqualified his team-mate starting in 3rd. This one is easy too. Hamilton was able to overtake Vettel in the wet, then built up a significant lead. Button was able to close that gap eventually as they pitted again, but Hamilton prevailed at the front and built up yet another lap. As it started to rain again, he spun and allowed Button to catch up. Hamilton being in front had first call to pit strategy so went in for intermediates which turned out to be wrong decision. Button had to stay out and a lap later it was clear that the track was drying out. This ment that Button won the race and Hamilton finished in 4th. Now, you might argue that the decision was down to the brilliance of Button - but I'd argue that at the time, he was fortunate to not have pit-priority. At that point, it could have gone either way - the track could have gotten worse in which case Hamilton would have won or in the way it turned out - it got better. One way or the other, Hamilton lost 13 points compared to Button.
Belgium 2011:
Interestingly, Hamilton started in 2nd, Button in 13th! So how did this happen? If I recall correctly, Button was helped by the safety car that came out as a result of Hamilton who had just passed Kobayashi on the track, moved back to the racing line and collided with Kobayashi who was still there. I don't really think Button would have finished anywhere in front of Lewis had it not been for his crash. I would have to watch the race again though to be sure, but really, that's a large difference starting in 13th to 2nd to make progress without being just a little bit fortunate...
Monza 2011:
In Italy, Hamilton once again outqualified Button, though the gap was smaller (2nd to 3rd). Hamilton actually had quite a gap to Button and soon caught up to Schumacher who got passed after the safety-car restart. Hamilton attemped multiple passes on Schumacher who was rather agressive with blocking (even Ross Brawn came on the radio to tell Schumacher to not block) but by that time, Button had already caught up, passed Hamilton and then got past Schumacher rather easily. I guess one could cheer Buttons brilliant drive. End result: Button 2nd, Hamilton 4th.
Singapore 2011:
Button outqualified Hamilton by 0.005. Though when you read Wikipedia, it says that in Q3, the drivers did two runs. Button initially was 2nd, and then dropped back as Hamilton and Webber both outqualified his time to 2nd. Then for the second run, Hamilton apparently had a fuel problem so could not run his 2nd attempt. The result was that Button outqualified him on his second run. Button ended up 3rd and Hamilton 4th.
In the race, Hamilton had an incident with Massa, clipping his front-wing causing his front-wing to break and Massa a puncture. Hamilton had to pit again and then was penalized for causing the collision. So, while Button remained ahead of Hamilton most of the race, another lots of points lost for a rather unfortunate (stupid) likely avoidable collision. To put things a little in perspective though: Massa was already fuming at Hamilton in qualifying because Hamilton overtook Massa on his outlap in Q3 (to gain a better position). Massa was very critical of this eventually and as far as I recall, he was rather agressive when the two met on track. I'm not justifying Hamilton in any way - I would have to watch the race to draw a definitive conclusion, but I think it was worth mentioning to put into perspective. At the end of the race, Button finished 2nd, while Hamilton finished in 5th.
Japan 2011:
Button outqualified Hamilton. Once again, (and according to Wikipedia), Hamilton was the early pace-setter in Q2. In Q3 Hamilton set the initial pace, then for the 2nd run, he was following Button (with Schumacher and Webber behind), not realize that it was getting close to set a time before the checkered-flag. Hamilton was also distracted changing dials on his steering-wheel. Before the last chicane, Webber overtoook Hamilton and Hamilton who was startled, then missed out on being able to do a final run. Result was Button 2nd, Hamilton 3rd. Not saying Hamilton would have outqualified Button again, but really... indications are he would have. Even so, starting 3rd, behind his team-mate, no big-deal.
In the race, Hamilton got passed Button who was cut by Vettel at the start. Then accoarding to Wikipedia, there's some talk about Hamilton having troubles, assumption being that he had a puncture. It turned out to be heavy degredation? Really would have to watch this race to be sure what exactly happened, but somehow, Button ended up in front again, then there was some collision with Massa again (that resulted in a safety-car because of debris) and the while in the pits, to make matters worse, he had a slow stop and he ended up behind Massa again. He recovered from that, but in the end 5th was the best to achieve.
India 2011:
Again, Hamilton (2nd) outqualified Button (5th). Now, accoarding to Wikipedia, Button somehow had a brilliant start and Hamilton a bad one. I actually thought there was some issue with the track being extremely dirty on the even-side of the track, but I may be imagening this one. One way or the other, Button ended up in front, Hamilton behind Massa. To make matters worse, Hamilton and Massa had another collision - this time, handing a penality to Massa. Hamilton however had to pit for a new wing, losing him time and eventually finished 7th to Buttons 2nd.
Brazil 2011:
Button (3rd) outqualified Hamilton (4th) fair and square. The race finished with Button ending on a high and Hamilton with another DNF (gearbox issue).
So, this are all the races of 2011 where Button finished ahead of Hamilton in the race and on points. It's funny when you actually look at what happened during the race. Now, I'm not at all trying to discredit Button in any way here - as I have previously noted, he is a brilliant driver when it comes to scoring consistently and on the best of his days, he is extremly quick and solid. No arguments there. However, looking at all these races where Button finished ahead of his team-mate in 2011, it quickly becomes apparent that in those 10 races, Hamilton outqualified Button 5 times, one time substantially. In 3 of those remaining 5 races, Hamilton had some kind of issue in Q3 - either by being sent out too late (Japan), not setting a time at all (Perez crash in Monaco) or having some fuel issue (Singapore), but was the pace-setter before. It is likely he would have been close to outqualifying his team-mate there too. In the 2 remaining races (India and Brazil), Button outqualified Hamilton fair and square.
So if we look at the data, it does raise the question how Hamilton, usually starting ahead of his team-mate ended up behind. All in all, it just seems to me, Hamilton had an extremely hard 2011. Sure, some of the incidents (especially those with Massa) are directly related to his decisions on the track. And it all started in Monaco, where Hamilton had pace, but wasn't able to do a proper Q3 time, thus falling down the grid and frustratingly tried to make up places on a track where overtakes are close to impossible, unless you are wreckless. Even so, I maintain that if he had merely concentrated to beating his team-mate, he could have ended up with more points and fewer collisions. He was also unfortunate to have some avoidable faults, team-strategic decisions that went against him - just adding to his overall frustrating year.
At the end of the day, all that we are left with are points without context. And from those, it's easily argued that Button beat Hamilton. If we look at the 2011 season race by race though, I think it gives a bit of context to *how* Button managed to outscore him, especially when in the majority of those races, Hamilton was in fact starting further up the grid.
Does this make Button any less of an impressive driver? I think not, but it shows two drivers at opposite sides; one performing consistently at his best (Button) and the other having an extremely frustrating year with lots of incidents (not all DNF related).
