Analysis of 2010 WDC and WCC Odds

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Who will win the 2010 WDC

Hamilton
34
27%
Schumacher
12
10%
Alonso
36
29%
Vettel
20
16%
Button
9
7%
Massa
10
8%
Rosberg
4
3%
 
Total votes : 125

Post Fri Dec 25, 2009 11:47 am

I'm opening this thread to keep track of the 2010 WDC odds of the top seven F1 drivers. I have checked Skybet (UK) and BWin (GER) for odds and they come up with the same list of top rated seven drivers.

  • Hamilton
  • Schumacher
  • Alonso
  • Vettel
  • Button
  • Massa
  • Rosberg

I agree that it would probably be even better if I had an additional Spanish or Italian betting site for my data base. Perhaps someone can recommend one?

Of course I am willing to extend the poll if new drivers make it to top seven during the course of the season. I'm just trying to limit the work load and increase the punch of the information.

Examples of how the information is presented on the sites:

Image

Image

I am using these 7 names for an internal poll which will run indefinitely. I intend to update the odds from the Skybet and BWin sites in regular intervalls over the 2010 season.

What I basically do is taking the decimal odds out from the betting sites and insert them into an Excel sheet. Next the decimal odds are converted to percentage odds by inverting the figure. An automatic pie chart is then drawn with the percentage odds.

Image

Note that the percents are representing the probability that the driver will become WDC. The percent odds of the top 7 drivers do not add up to 100% but to different totals. So don't be surprised by the totals in the pies. Every iteration will have a date. So over the time the thread will document how the odds have changed.

The purpose of this is introducing some hard data into the usual driver quality debate.

How do you like the concept? Should I add something?
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
WhiteBlue
 
Joined: 14 Apr 2008
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Post Sun Dec 27, 2009 7:18 am

According to the bookies the champ will get punked!!
Of course the odds were a lot longer on JB last year :wtf:


Tazio's Aprilia :x
Image
Those who believe in telekinetics raise my hand
Mr Alcatraz
 
Joined: 18 May 2008
Location: San Diego Ca. USA

Post Sun Dec 27, 2009 7:29 am

Tazio wrote:According to the bookies the champ will get punked!!
Of course the odds were a lot longer on JB last year :wtf:


I still have the concern that there may be bookies in Italy or Spain which show shortest odds for Alonso. I would be under representing his chances if I leave it at this state.

So if my assumption is correct someone please give me the URL for such a bookie.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
WhiteBlue
 
Joined: 14 Apr 2008
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Post Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:14 am

"You can't change what happened. But you can still change what will happen.
Sebastian Vettel"
PlatinumZealot
 
Joined: 12 Jun 2008

Post Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:05 am

OK, Ibetips is now the latin reference bookie.

Image

The odds are a bit lower than the British odds but otherwise in the same order. This may change over the season though. Here we have the full picture.

Image

By averaging we could even produce "world" odds. The world odds would still show Hamilton as the leader while the poll of the forumers show Alonso with a big lead today.

Image

So what we learn today is that the most active forumers are leanining more towards Fernando Alonso than the average world F1 punter. :lol:

Now I'm not surprised for getting flak for my germanic preferences. :wink:
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
WhiteBlue
 
Joined: 14 Apr 2008
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Post Mon Dec 28, 2009 2:42 pm

Image

Image

I like the idea of "world odds" vs forum poll. I've produced two sample charts that could be used to show how these odds change over time. We could then track how people's opinions move over the pre-season and into the season - hopefully converging with the drivers leader board as the season reaches its conclusion!

If you could be bothered to maintain it, we could have three parallel charts: the first representing the split of world odds, the second showing the results of the forum poll and a third showing the drivers points. All three would be shown over time with an entry each 2 weeks or month.

Then we'd see whether it is better to trust the opinion of the world's betting community who I assume are a pretty motley bunch of the knowledgeable and the clueless. Or is this forum of extremely knowledgeable :wtf: but vastly smaller sample of opinions, the true seat of wisdom.
senna-toleman
 
Joined: 26 Feb 2008
Location: UK

Post Tue Jan 12, 2010 8:34 am

Here we have an update for todays odds. It also shows the the world odds as the average of the three regions.

Image

In the last 17 days in the world odds Hamilton and Alonso have lost some support but Schumacher remains the same.

Image

F1tech votes are now at 25 still massively for Alonso
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
WhiteBlue
 
Joined: 14 Apr 2008
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Post Tue Jan 12, 2010 3:14 pm

If I was to actually place a bet I'd only bet on Massa and Rosberg (possibly JB) at those odds.
- Axle
axle
 
Joined: 22 Jun 2004
Location: Norfolk, UK

Post Tue Jan 12, 2010 7:36 pm

At this stage of the season the odds are massively influenced by what people expect of the drivers as the cars have not had any tests. When test results and races become available the odds will be more heavily impacted by car performance. So this is a good time to gage the public's view of the drivers.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
WhiteBlue
 
Joined: 14 Apr 2008
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Post Tue Jan 12, 2010 9:55 pm

The odds for Rosberg are alot better on Betfair.com! Decimal odds of 18.5 at the moment!
Mcp138
 
Joined: 23 May 2007

Post Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:20 pm

Mcp138 wrote:The odds for Rosberg are alot better on Betfair.com! Decimal odds of 18.5 at the moment!


The better the odds are the lower the chances of the driver are.

18,5 are worse chances than the 14,7 that I found on average. It means bookies and betting public think that Rosberg is very unlikely.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
WhiteBlue
 
Joined: 14 Apr 2008
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Post Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:34 pm

Well we already knew Rosberg wasn't going to get too many votes if you consider how our main poll was voted on so far:

:arrow: http://www.f1technical.net/poll/index.php?dispid=162
Steven
 
Joined: 19 Aug 2002
Location: Belgium

Post Wed Jan 13, 2010 12:58 am

The current results of that poll are unbelievable, Tomba. It's amazing that 57% of the F1Technical voters believe that Schumacher will totally dominate Rosberg after 2 years retired and with 40 years under his belt. I personally voted "too old", and seeing people voting "occassionally" wouldn't seem odd.

Maybe I'm the one that's getting to old!
I am not amazed by F1 cars in Monaco. I want to see them driving in the A8 highway: Variable radius corners, negative banking, and extreme narrowings that Tilke has never dreamed off. Oh, yes, and "beautiful" weather tops it all.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr
Miguel
 
Joined: 17 Apr 2008
Location: San Sebastian (Spain)

Post Wed Jan 13, 2010 1:06 am

I think that the averaged world odds are a much better indicator of the drivers chances than the opinion of a handful of posters to our forum.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
WhiteBlue
 
Joined: 14 Apr 2008
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Post Wed Jan 13, 2010 5:08 am

Skybet's over-round is shameless. 111% on the likeliest in the field while the other sites' are a hair below 100%. [-X

bodog isn't open for F1 business yet here. It's just as well, I can't separate my enthusiasm for certain drivers from my wagers.
Loud idiot in red since 2010
United States Grand Prix Club, because there's more to racing than NASCAR
jon-mullen
 
Joined: 10 Sep 2008
Location: Big Blue Nation

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