Mercedes AMG F1 W06 Speculation

[tranquility2k4]

Merc won't change their plans, they'll simply build the best engine they can using all advantages and therefore use tokens to their maximum effect. This is because they can turn the engines up or down to their desire. They are so controllable they could be running round, as last year, with an engine hiding any amount of performance they want such is their advantage. This is why it's good news for Honda to have in season development de-freeze.

let's stay away from glorifying the team. We are a technical forum after all.

Last year they refrained from running maximum performance all the time because the power unit was not reliable enough for that. Customer teams had to explicitly ask mercedes if and when they were allowed to run full power, and within the team itself came a big argument about the unauthorized running of max settings. It gives more points to run the engine reliably and a bit slower then to go full power all the time and break down more often, even if the competition is too close.

I don't think Mercedes gives itself the luxury of laying back. They'll do just the same as the others: trying to extract the maximum performance out of a given situation. They'll bring what they have developed to testing and make an evaluation after the data is collected. If they think all the used tokens are as good as they can be and extracting more performance isn't worth running a half updated pu, they'll introduce all the tokens in Melbourne. Else they'll keep tokens under development. It's a cost benefit analysis, one that demands to consider what the competition does.

You make a very good point there, I hadn't considered that. Merc can assess their development of certain tokens during testing and if there's room for improvement, their final iteration of the engine used for Melbourne may not include these. Other engine manufacturers (especially Ferrari, and also Honda) will not have this luxery. It remains to be seen how on schedule Renault are.

[Alexgtt]

Merc won't change their plans, they'll simply build the best engine they can using all advantages and therefore use tokens to their maximum effect. This is because they can turn the engines up or down to their desire. They are so controllable they could be running round, as last year, with an engine hiding any amount of performance they want such is their advantage. This is why it's good news for Honda to have in season development de-freeze.

let's stay away from glorifying the team. We are a technical forum after all.

Last year they refrained from running maximum performance all the time because the power unit was not reliable enough for that. Customer teams had to explicitly ask mercedes if and when they were allowed to run full power, and within the team itself came a big argument about the unauthorized running of max settings. It gives more points to run the engine reliably and a bit slower then to go full power all the time and break down more often, even if the competition is too close.

I don't think Mercedes gives itself the luxury of laying back. They'll do just the same as the others: trying to extract the maximum performance out of a given situation. They'll bring what they have developed to testing and make an evaluation after the data is collected. If they think all the used tokens are as good as they can be and extracting more performance isn't worth running a half updated pu, they'll introduce all the tokens in Melbourne. Else they'll keep tokens under development. It's a cost benefit analysis, one that demands to consider what the competition does.

You make a very good point. However, I'm not a Merc fanboy glorifying anything. Just making the technical point that they will maximize development, be that performance or reliability.

[turbof1]

I do wonder if they are going to update 2014 spec parts because of reliability. They are allowed to do so under 1.c.

Remember, the average mileage increases by 25%. I don't think all of the 2014 parts can handle that. Updating the power unit doesn't get subtracted from the tokens and thus opens oppertunities.

If the fia however feels such updates do get subtracted from the tokens, nobody will want to wait too long with it.

[Alexgtt]

I do wonder if they are going to update 2014 spec parts because of reliability. They are allowed to do so under 1.c.

Remember, the average mileage increases by 25%. I don't think all of the 2014 parts can handle that. Updating the power unit doesn't get subtracted from the tokens and thus opens oppertunities.

If the fia however feels such updates do get subtracted from the tokens, nobody will want to wait too long with it.

My point in a nutshell. Exactly what I'm thinking. Maximize, and in the Merc case reliability was the problem in 2014. Their focus will be in that area and out of that gain performance advantages as well.

[turbof1]

So autosport now is claiming that Mercedes will not use all the tokens at the first race, there are even suggesting that Mercedes is considering to keep the unused tokens until the end of year, at which point they'll be used for the 2016 engine.

[Alexgtt]

So autosport now is claiming that Mercedes will not use all the tokens at the first race, there are even suggesting that Mercedes is considering to keep the unused tokens until the end of year, at which point they'll be used for the 2016 engine.

I thought you couldn't roll over tokens to the next year? Is there a cut off date for using them?

Not using them all for the first race would make sense. Spreading development through the year with maximum data does.

[bonjon1979]

So autosport now is claiming that Mercedes will not use all the tokens at the first race, there are even suggesting that Mercedes is considering to keep the unused tokens until the end of year, at which point they'll be used for the 2016 engine.

I thought you couldn't roll over tokens to the next year? Is there a cut off date for using them?

Not using them all for the first race would make sense. Spreading development through the year with maximum data does.

There doesn't seem to be any kind of clarity whatsoever with regard to how and when the tokens can be brought in. It's certainly not there in the rules. To think, they paid very good lawyers incredible sums of money to write up these rules. How can they have made such errors on the scale they have. Getting the incorrect year on the rules and regulations is such an idiotic and basic error it beggars belief.

[turbof1]

So autosport now is claiming that Mercedes will not use all the tokens at the first race, there are even suggesting that Mercedes is considering to keep the unused tokens until the end of year, at which point they'll be used for the 2016 engine.

I thought you couldn't roll over tokens to the next year? Is there a cut off date for using them?

Not using them all for the first race would make sense. Spreading development through the year with maximum data does.

Technically, you'd still be introducing 2015 tokens in the 2015 season. However, they are designed and developed with 2016 in mind.

For example: Mercedes witholds 7 tokens. Between a period of the moment of the last race and the december the 31st, they homologate a power unit where those 7 tokens are used. The power unit will never race in 2015, but since the updates themselves are introduced in the year 2015, it would still be within the 2015 period.

The ruling goes as follows:

28.5 Only power units which have been homologated by the FIA in accordance with Appendix 4 [Sporting Regulations] may be used at an Event during the 2014-2020 Championship seasons.

This is the main ruling of using engines in the period 2014-2020 seasons. Note that it describes that only homologated engines are allowed to race in that period. It says nothing about when the homologation itself has to happen.

Other than any parts solely associated with power unit installation in
different types of car (which have no performance benefit and which may be changed from time to time during the homologation period with the consent of the FIA), any such power unit is one which is identical in every respect to either :

b) A power unit delivered to the FIA after 28 February 2014 which has been modified in accordance with the Annual F1 Power Unit Homologation table in Appendix 4 to the F1 Technical Regulations.

Item b) describes a particular situation where power units meeting the conditions of b), are allowed to be modified in accordance with the power unit homologation table in Technical Regulations Appendix 4. This is the token system, which applies to Mercedes, Ferrari and Renault.

(item c) just below is the category which applies to Honda. Honda got under "equitably and fairly" an allowance on the average unused tokens at the start of Melbourne.)

But Technical Regulations Appendix 4 only gives a year, 2015. There's nothing about a specific date or a stricter period then just the year; in the sporting regulations 28.5 mentions the word "season" but that isn't properly defined, nor put explicitly forward as a restrictor on the homologation itself, and as explained already it says nothing at all when the homologation needs to happen! You could very succesfully argue that December 31st of 2015 falls within 2015, ergo homologating unused 2015 tokens at December 31st falls under the rules of the 2015 tokens.

In practice you'd be saving up tokens for 2016 and introduce them at the latest moment possible in 2015, just to comply with the rules. Such an power unit will never race since all races are done, and in 2016 you are going to add atleast some 2016 tokens to it. But it's nowhere written that you need to race 2015 tokens in 2015, you only have to introduce them in that year. Well, you actually don't have to introduce them, but if you don't you'll loose them.

[PlatinumZealot]

So what is the advantage of doing that?

Are you suggesting that by using the tokens at the last possible moment more development time is gained to perfect the parts since these parts would remained unchanged thereafter for the next five years?

hmm.. that makes sense in the long run because you only have one shot to implement each token. Do it once do it right. It also means that if you Renault and Ferrari, you write off the 2015 season and focus on winning in the coming seasons.

[turbof1]

So what is the advantage of doing that?

Are you suggesting that by using the tokens at the last possible moment more development time is gained to perfect the parts since these parts would remained unchanged thereafter for the next five years?

hmm.. that makes sense in the long run because you only have one shot to implement each token. Do it once do it right. It also means that if you Renault and Ferrari, you write off the 2015 season and focus on winning in the coming seasons.

Yes, that's what I'm suggesting.

The advantage would a much better prepared 2016 power unit. You'd be using the 25 tokens in 2016 + unused tokens of 2015. Of course you are sacrificing a huge (but variable) chunk of 2015 performance for that.

Further, you have to realise you often have to use several tokens in order to make a particular eyed change. It could very well be that the tokens used at the end of the year leaves you with a not working power unit, because the team planned to use the 25 tokens in 2016 as the necessary complementary ones.

[f1316]

But I don't really understand that as an advantage for Mercedes, if anything I still think it's a help to the others.

If we're saying the bottom line is here that you only get the chance to use tokens once (and you must use them before the end of the season or they're gone forever) then pushing that deadline back is a bigger help to those less likely to use them well sooner.

Put it another way: if the deadline had been February, Mercedes were in a better position to use all the tokens in time and use them right; Ferrari and Renault now have more time to ensure the development they are doing is not rushed and is the optimum for seasons to come.

All of which is not to say that the rivals will close the gap, but I can't see how this is anything but a help to them.

[turbof1]

But I don't really understand that as an advantage for Mercedes, if anything I still think it's a help to the others.

If we're saying the bottom line is here that you only get the chance to use tokens once (and you must use them before the end of the season or they're gone forever) then pushing that deadline back is a bigger help to those less likely to use them well sooner.

Put it another way: if the deadline had been February, Mercedes were in a better position to use all the tokens in time and use them right; Ferrari and Renault now have more time to ensure the development they are doing is not rushed and is the optimum for seasons to come.

All of which is not to say that the rivals will close the gap, but I can't see how this is anything but a help to them.

It depends. Mercedes was the one with the better power unit in 2014, if they still are in 2015 despite unused tokens, they can push them back. If the others make too much progress, there's nothing stopping them using the tokens prematurely. But that also means any potentional that the extra time might given will stay unused.

It gives the others of course also the option to throw in the towel early, but remember that Ferrari and Renault and perhaps also Honda are fighting with eachother. If they keep too many tokens until the end of the year, it might lead to being absolutely beaten by the competition.

And again, you also have to look this in the bigger picture. Say that the tokens in 2016 are enough to make updates to the mgu-k, mgu-h but not the IC. By using 2015 tokens to make a part of the changes to the IC, they now can effectively update all 3.

In short, it's a new puzzle, a new strategem. The one having the advantage last year takes that advantage into this year and has the luxury of letting the others do the first move. If that move is threatening the dominance, they'll introduce tokens. If not, they'll look at the bigger picture and use them for 2016 development.

[PlatinumZealot]

It is now a game of chess when to use your tokens.

[turbof1]

It is now a game of chess when to use your tokens.

Just like in chess, it usually is in your advantage if you don't have to make the first move.

[FrukostScones]

not exactly car but mainly PU:

token time:

https://translate.google.de/translate?s ... t=&act=url

Merc wil app/all. will have used 26, renault 25, Ferr 20 till season start.

leaves 6+7+12 / 3= 8.333 = 8 for Honda