beelsebob wrote:
Basically, your fantasy in which you need to replace the battery very often is a complete fiction, and not how anyone drives their car, and your slightly less fantastical scenario where you need one expensive bit of maintenance every 10 years ignores that the petrol car will need lots of moderately pricey maintenance along the way that the EV doesn't need, and also costs hugely more in fuel.
Going to go a bit offtopic about this, but anyway:
I think you are right and wrong at the same time
Let me ask you this - how many people you know of that buy their brand new car and drive it for more than 10 years? I don't know any, because they sell the car while it is still under warranty and holds more value. Thus the person who will buy this 2nd hand car, will be the one who will have to replace the battery, and he may have started with maybe 3-5 year old battery, thus it will be expensive for him, and "free" for the original first buyer.
You can also argue that the 2nd hand market price will be low enough that it will somewhat balance out the price of the new battery, but then again, will all the financial options available, why bother with that second hand marked and dying batteries, when you can have new one... it's sort of a catch 22 situation in my opinion.
One answer may be that, as someone suggested, you don't actually pay for the battery when you buy the new car, and you exchange stations where they are swapping depleted for fully charged ones, and then you may pay "premium petrol" price for new, long lasting battery, and "regular" for a battery that may be close the end of its life cycle, both customers get what they need - energy to do their trip, and the owner of the vehicle is very happy, because he doesn't need to worry about the battery life in his car. Mind you, that the exchange price of the battery will, of course, include extra, that will cover the durability loss of the battery + the financial interest of the actual "money" (owner) of the battery (all of them).
The bottom line is - electric car will not be a wonder that will make individual transportation cheap (what most people think and hope for), the end solution will, in my opinion, be at least as costly to the end user as the current IC car, because the "money" behind the car industry is not interested into making the world better, they want more $$$, simple as that.