At which GP will Mercedes win the WCC?

[gray41]

With the Mercedes team looking so dominant and right now seemingly heading for double podiums at ever grand prix, when do you think they will take the WCC?

[MercedesAMGSpy]

I have said it after the Malaysian GP, my pick is the Singapore GP.

[tim|away]

After 5 races, Mercedes has 197 points, RedBull has 84. That's an average rate of 39.4 points per race for Mercedes and 16.8 points per race for RedBull. If we go with the current rate, you get the following chart.



I believe RedBull will make up a bit of ground and increase their average points per race, but I also believe that Mercedes won't have a DNF every 5 races. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Mercedes wraps the WCC up in Singapore - it would be even earlier if it wasn't for double points.

[user001]

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[beelsebob]

After 5 races, Mercedes has 197 points, RedBull has 84. That's an average rate of 39.4 points per race for Mercedes and 16.8 points per race for RedBull. If we go with the current rate, you get the following chart.

http://s27.postimg.org/x5kfc2z8z/f1_wcc_2014.gif

I believe RedBull will make up a bit of ground and increase their average points per race, but I also believe that Mercedes won't have a DNF every 5 races. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Mercedes wraps the WCC up in Singapore - it would be even earlier if it wasn't for double points.

Not that it matters for the sake of discussion, but your RedBull and Merc graphs need a step up for Abu Dhabi, because of double points.

[notsofast]

Hmmm, based on the chart and on the poll choices, I'm concluding that I'm not allowed to believe that Red Bull will get worse this season.

[tim|away]

Not that it matters for the sake of discussion, but your RedBull and Merc graphs need a step up for Abu Dhabi, because of double points.

Thanks for pointing that out. I fixed the chart in the post above.

Whilst I'm here, let's assume that Mercedes will finish 1+2 for the remaining races and RedBull will grab 3+4 for the remaining races - no DNF for either team. Singapore is looking more and more likely, especially if you consider that the russian GP is looking a bit questionable. For the WCC to not be decided in Singapore, Mercedes needs more DNFs than RedBull or RedBull needs to close the gap and start fighting for first and second positions. It's pretty sad that this is a rather optimistic assumption for RedBull: 100% reliability and getting both cars in at 3rd and 4th, beating all other best of the rest teams for the remaining races.