Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
flyboy2160
flyboy2160
84
Joined: 25 Apr 2011, 17:05

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

Richard wrote:... More even distribution of the prize money could easily make F1 affordable for the teams at the bottom...
I keep hearing this manta, but don't buy it without seeing the numbers. The "prize money" division below is the only one I've seen recently (If you have a newer one, please post it.)

http://www.hindustantimes.com/motor-spo ... 49214.aspx

Except for Ferrari's special cut (which may have been done away with?), this doesn't seem unreasonable: Half the pot dived equally and just under 5X as much for winning as for 10th in the other half.

A separate, and probably more important, issue is what percentage of the total revenue is in this prize money pot for distribution. Based on the Gnome's recent comments about ticket prices and the Teams' cut, isn't it about half?

So even if the distribution pot were increased to say 75% of the total, the bottom teams aren't going to suddenly get hundreds of millions to spend. They're just going to get 5-10 million more.

I disagree that the "arms race" can't be some what controlled via regulations. F1 currently wants to live in a world in which it can have 2 + 2 = 5. It wants lower costs, but requires excessively complex engine systems to salve it's guilty "relevant-save-the-world" conscience. For starters, do away with the expensive, complex 'PU systems' so that there could be engine cost and design competition (and if the manufacturers don't want to play, so what?) If the manufacturers want to develop hybrids, let them do it WEC. Sauber recently lamented that it was OK with funding back in 2006-2009 , but this year doesn't have enough. Hmmm, what's the big change? Dirt cheap NA engines vs. KERS-thermal-hybrid-stupid brake by wire crap.

I'll say the same thing here that I've said about MotoGP: there isn't a spending problem, there's a funding problem. Here again, F1 and the EU Nazis want 2+2=5. If the advertising were opened up like it was previously, there might be plenty of money for everybody....and JP Sr. could make a comeback from hiding in Thailand as Hass' 'Director of Marketing.'

flatlander_48
flatlander_48
0
Joined: 13 Sep 2008, 07:27
Location: Elmira, Taiwan, Elmira, Taiwan, Elmira

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

flyboy2160 wrote:
Richard wrote:... More even distribution of the prize money could easily make F1 affordable for the teams at the bottom...
I keep hearing this manta, but don't buy it without seeing the numbers. The "prize money" division below is the only one I've seen recently (If you have a newer one, please post it.)

http://www.hindustantimes.com/motor-spo ... 49214.aspx

Except for Ferrari's special cut (which may have been done away with?), this doesn't seem unreasonable: Half the pot dived equally and just under 5X as much for winning as for 10th in the other half.
I believe there is a more recent description. I think Dieter Rencker (sp?) did one in the last year for Motorsport Magazine.

Anyway, what you said isn't correct. Half the pot is divided across 10 teams, not the current 11 or the max of 12. Plus, you had to have finished in the top 10 for 2 of the last 3 years. This is the revenue sharing part, but everybody doesn't share in the revenue. On the performance side, the difference from 1st to 10th is almost 20:1. And still remember, 11th and 12th don't share in the performance side either.

ScottB
ScottB
4
Joined: 17 Mar 2012, 14:45

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

Breaking out 'Nazis' instantly weakens any argument, and frankly I'd expect better from a moderator on a forum such as this.

Moxie
Moxie
5
Joined: 06 Oct 2013, 20:58

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

Moxie wrote:Exhibit #1. There is plenty of money in F1, but that money is heavily concentrated at the front of the grid

2013 Formula 1 Prize Money

Team. 2013 Standings. Column 1. Column 2. Total

Red Bill. 1. $35M $66.5M. $101.5M
Mercedes. 2. $35M. $56M. $91M
Ferrari. 3. $35M $45.5M $80.5M
Lotus. 4. $35M $38.5M. $73.5M
McLaren . 5. $35M. $35M. $70M
Force India 6. $35M. $31.5M. $66.5M
Saucer. 7. $35M. $24.5M. $59.5M
Toro Rosso. 8. $35M. $21M. $56M
Williams. 9. $35M. $17.5. $52.5M
Marussia. 10. $0. $14M. $14M
Caterham. 11. $35M. $0. $35M
https://c1.staticflickr.com/7/6025/5957 ... 3798_z.jpg
Please forgive the self quote, but apparently this post was overlooked. The payout ratio between financial first and financial last place is 7.2.

I suppose there may be some people who like to watch races where it is nearly 100% predictable that one of two teams will win. Perhaps it would be best to do away with all of the also-rans and just have a two team series. Now that I think about it wouldn't it be great if F1 was a one team series??? That would certainly solve all of the complaining about budgets, and competitiveness. Then the drivers could focus on the WCC, just so long as they follow team orders.

User avatar
FoxHound
55
Joined: 23 Aug 2012, 16:50

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

Moxie, I've no issue with your point of view, it is in fact very reasonable...if not one I share fully.
Moxie wrote: 1) Because it is boring to watch a "competition" where one team wins in excess of 60%of the races.
It's been like this for years. Brawn, Red bull, Ferrari and now Mercedes are achieving this. Yet the sport has grown considerable since 1990, itself a domination year for McLaren. And if we look at the gaps from winners to backmarkers, they have closed considerably since that time. And we have had some classic years between then and now.
Moxie wrote:2). The point is that I do not want to see a field full of "also-rans." I want to see more teams that have a real chance to reach the podium or even win at any given race. There will always be stronger teams and weaker teams, but two teams that win everything, makes everyone else "also-rans."
The field is currently fielding McLaren, Red Bull, Williams, Ferrari, Mercedes, and Force India as podium winners this year.
6 teams out of 11. I get your point, but it it doesnt add up to a field of also rans.
Moxie wrote:3). I am not suggesting "rewarding failure" or "propping them up." This suggests that they receive rewards that they do not deserve. I would strongly disapprove of a simple redistribution of money from wealthy teams to poor teams, as this certainly would be "rewarding failure." The changes I suggest is to adjust the economic incentives so that the teams at the rear of the field EARN a reward that is proportional to the risk that they take.
Who would risk something without any guarantees of reward? There needs to be something caste iron in this sense.
Otherwise lower ranked teams will be folding more frequently due to risking and then finding no reward due to their risk not paying off.
Moxie wrote:4) Bernie makes a ton of money putting on his circus, and these teams are his performers. Whithout them there isn't much of a show. Bernie needs to improve the product. Additionally. Marussia , Caterham and Sauber have fans too. Consider the financial cost to FOM of reducing the coverage of Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari by 120 seconds, and increasing the coverage of Marussia, Caterham and Sauber by 120 seconds. The risk for FOM is low for few Mercedes fans would notice that their favored cars are on the screen for 1 min less. At the same time FOM would be supporting a broader fan base as the Caterham fans would certainly notice that their favored car is on screen for 60 seconds as opposed to less than 20 seconds. The additional exposure will enable these teams to offer a return on investment to sponsors, which will help to improve their ability to compete.
This is the false fabrication of coverage which I think would not be at all helpful. How much extra would a team get if they are shown for a few seconds more? This sort of thing is expectant from prospective sponsors, and the extra would not really give these guys the magic 50/100 million they need to get closer.
A tenth of that....maybe.
Moxie wrote:5). I would not expect any of this to turn F1 around in a single season. I do think positive effects would be seen immediately, but a healthy, financially stable competition will take many seasons to develop and balance.
We have to consider that the environment in which Caterham, Marussia and even the defunct HRT entered the sport has changed.
They cannot be blamed for entering a sport promising a ridiculous 40 million budget, which then gets turned to the RRA which then gets ushered out the door.

But, in this case....what should F1 do? Admit a mistake was made and give the teams 2 options... allow full manufacturer support for their previous years total budget, or if this is not acceptable cut them lose.
Because the money side of things will not change, with or without bernie.

These lower rung teams just do not have the clout to be able to get more. FOTA was disbanded, Max has gone...and the landscape has changed for the minnows.
And it is with great irony that FOTA was disbanded in part due to lower rung teams constantly been swayed by Bernie's cash.

And as I mentioned before, why should the minnows be able to spoil innovation they cannot perfect as HRT did with EBD and Caterham with FRICS(alleged)?

There are 2 sides to this coin, and I know you can see my point as I see yours. I see a better F1 without these "new" teams, but would be equally happy to see them remain if they could buy off the shelf current parts all within a fiscally viable plan.
To qualify for the privilege just finish in the bottom 2 or three.
JET set

xpensive
xpensive
214
Joined: 22 Nov 2008, 18:06
Location: Somewhere in Scandinavia

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

F1 is like Hollywood, you need supporting actors to make the stars look good, movies with an all star cast are usually very boring.
"I spent most of my money on wine and women...I wasted the rest"

Moxie
Moxie
5
Joined: 06 Oct 2013, 20:58

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

FoxHound wrote:
Moxie wrote: 1) Because it is boring to watch a "competition" where one team wins in excess of 60%of the races.
It's been like this for years. Brawn, Red bull, Ferrari and now Mercedes are achieving this. Yet the sport has grown considerable since 1990, itself a domination year for McLaren. And if we look at the gaps from winners to backmarkers, they have closed considerably since that time. And we have had some classic years between then and now.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

The trend line in this chart shows that WCC winning team tended to win greater than 50% of the races in 1990. Since 2012 the trend has suggested that the WCC team will win greater than 60% of the races. The phenomenon of single team dominance has gotten worse, and the trend continues.

Excitement should not be a statistical anomaly.

FoxHound wrote:
Moxie wrote:2). The point is that I do not want to see a field full of "also-rans." I want to see more teams that have a real chance to reach the podium or even win at any given race. There will always be stronger teams and weaker teams, but two teams that win everything, makes everyone else "also-rans."
The field is currently fielding McLaren, Red Bull, Williams, Ferrari, Mercedes, and Force India as podium winners this year.
6 teams out of 11. I get your point, but it it doesnt add up to a field of also rans.
In 1980 the the trend shows that the WCC third place team was likely to win only 15% of the races. In 2012 this trend has fallen below 8%, and the trend continues. If you look at the WCC fourth and fifth place teams you will see that in 1980 these teams each stood a chance of winning races 10% and 5% respectively. In 2012 these chances have dropped below 5% and 0% respectively. As 5% represents one race of a 20 race season, it is clear that it extremely unlikely these teams will win a single race.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

In a two car scenario it is impossible for a single team to sweep the podium. Still the podium is dominated by the WCC #1 and #2 teams. Take note if the trends of the #4 and #5 teams.

I must reiterate that excitement should not be a statistical anomaly.
foxhound wrote:
Moxie wrote:3). I am not suggesting "rewarding failure" or "propping them up." This suggests that they receive rewards that they do not deserve. I would strongly disapprove of a simple redistribution of money from wealthy teams to poor teams, as this certainly would be "rewarding failure." The changes I suggest is to adjust the economic incentives so that the teams at the rear of the field EARN a reward that is proportional to the risk that they take.
Who would risk something without any guarantees of reward? There needs to be something caste iron in this sense.
Otherwise lower ranked teams will be folding more frequently due to risking and then finding no reward due to their risk not paying off.
Guarantee of reward??? Not necessarily. These are races, the magnitude of reward should not be absolute. This is about balancing risk with potential reward. The 5th place team no longer races with a realistic hope or reaching the podium, or being rewarded with the TV exposure that goes along with it. As the potential rewards diminish, so too does the risk teams are willing to take. Mind you we are talking about the team that takes 5th place in the WCC, so this imbalance of risk and reward affects greater than half of the field.
foxhound wrote:
Moxie wrote:4) Bernie makes a ton of money putting on his circus, and these teams are his performers. Whithout them there isn't much of a show. Bernie needs to improve the product. Additionally. Marussia , Caterham and Sauber have fans too. Consider the financial cost to FOM of reducing the coverage of Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari by 120 seconds, and increasing the coverage of Marussia, Caterham and Sauber by 120 seconds. The risk for FOM is low for few Mercedes fans would notice that their favored cars are on the screen for 1 min less. At the same time FOM would be supporting a broader fan base as the Caterham fans would certainly notice that their favored car is on screen for 60 seconds as opposed to less than 20 seconds. The additional exposure will enable these teams to offer a return on investment to sponsors, which will help to improve their ability to compete.

This is the false fabrication of coverage which I think would not be at all helpful. How much extra would a team get if they are shown for a few seconds more? This sort of thing is expectant from prospective sponsors, and the extra would not really give these guys the magic 50/100 million they need to get closer.
A tenth of that....maybe.
The value of the extra TV time would certainly be a fraction of what the top teams make in sponsorship. The exact value would of course be determined by the sponsors themselves, as they take their own financial risks based upon expectations of return on investment. I understand why you see this as artificial, but the aforementioned trends need to be reversed. Allowing the rear teams to offer advertisers a return on investment is an economic lever that can have a positive effect without resorting to other ham handed techniques, i.e revenue sharing.
foxhound wrote: These lower rung teams just do not have the clout to be able to get more. FOTA was disbanded, Max has gone...and the landscape has changed for the minnows.
And it is with great irony that FOTA was disbanded in part due to lower rung teams constantly been swayed by Bernie's cash.
I agree with you 100% on this point. Bernie has really made a mess of things with all of the back room deals, and convoluted contracts. I know little about all of these secret deals, and absolutely nothing about international contract law. I wonder if the tangled ball of yarn that is F1 can ever be unwound.

Frankly I think Bernie needs to be kicked to the curb and he can take Flávio with him. Once that is done, FOM can choose an season, sufficiently far off so to be free of all current Concorde agreements, regulations, and rule structures and such to begin a new formula for competition. It needs to hire economists and game theory strategists. It needs to consult with former F1 team owners,as well as team owners from other racing series, including WEC, Indycar, DTM and NASCAR, as to the effects of various economic influences and rules. It needs do as Niki Lauda has suggested and analyze the effects of every past rule change. It needs to start with a blank sheet, and create a series that promotes healthy competition. This is where ham handed tactics would be appropriate. Simply show the teams the new formula, if they like it they will sign, if they don't, they will not sign. (Sorry Ferrari, no more rule veto or special payments for you...would you still like to play?)

Aesto
Aesto
1
Joined: 11 May 2012, 15:59

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

Moxie wrote:The trend line in this chart shows that WCC winning team tended to win greater than 50% of the races in 1990. Since 2012 the trend has suggested that the WCC team will win greater than 60% of the races. The phenomenon of single team dominance has gotten worse, and the trend continues.
Two data points do not make a trend.
Moxie wrote:Frankly I think Bernie needs to be kicked to the curb and he can take Flávio with him. Once that is done, FOM can choose an season, sufficiently far off so to be free of all current Concorde agreements, regulations, and rule structures and such to begin a new formula for competition. It needs to hire economists and game theory strategists. It needs to consult with former F1 team owners,as well as team owners from other racing series, including WEC, Indycar, DTM and NASCAR, as to the effects of various economic influences and rules. It needs do as Niki Lauda has suggested and analyze the effects of every past rule change. It needs to start with a blank sheet, and create a series that promotes healthy competition. This is where ham handed tactics would be appropriate. Simply show the teams the new formula, if they like it they will sign, if they don't, they will not sign. (Sorry Ferrari, no more rule veto or special payments for you...would you still like to play?)
This is nothing but a pipe dream, I don't see why people keep making proposals that are clearly never going to be realized.

User avatar
MOWOG
24
Joined: 07 Apr 2013, 15:46
Location: Rhode Island, USA

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

Mahatma Ghandi had a better chance of kicking the British out of India than this plan does. Not that it isn't a good plan. It's just that Formula One doesn't give a flying fig leaf what we fans think. :-#
Some men go crazy; some men go slow. Some men go just where they want; some men never go.

User avatar
rscsr
51
Joined: 19 Feb 2012, 13:02
Location: Austria

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

Aesto wrote:
Moxie wrote:The trend line in this chart shows that WCC winning team tended to win greater than 50% of the races in 1990. Since 2012 the trend has suggested that the WCC team will win greater than 60% of the races. The phenomenon of single team dominance has gotten worse, and the trend continues.
Two data points do not make a trend.
Moxie wrote:Frankly I think Bernie needs to be kicked to the curb and he can take Flávio with him. Once that is done, FOM can choose an season, sufficiently far off so to be free of all current Concorde agreements, regulations, and rule structures and such to begin a new formula for competition. It needs to hire economists and game theory strategists. It needs to consult with former F1 team owners,as well as team owners from other racing series, including WEC, Indycar, DTM and NASCAR, as to the effects of various economic influences and rules. It needs do as Niki Lauda has suggested and analyze the effects of every past rule change. It needs to start with a blank sheet, and create a series that promotes healthy competition. This is where ham handed tactics would be appropriate. Simply show the teams the new formula, if they like it they will sign, if they don't, they will not sign. (Sorry Ferrari, no more rule veto or special payments for you...would you still like to play?)
This is nothing but a pipe dream, I don't see why people keep making proposals that are clearly never going to be realized.
Have you looked at the sheet he linked?
It clearly shows that he talked about the trend itself.

User avatar
FoxHound
55
Joined: 23 Aug 2012, 16:50

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

Trend takes into consideration circumstance at the the time of data collection.

The only trend I can see that is the same relating to 1980 and 2014 is 4 wheels and a human.
If I'm wrong, I'll hold me hands up.
JET set

Aesto
Aesto
1
Joined: 11 May 2012, 15:59

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

rscsr wrote:Have you looked at the sheet he linked?
It clearly shows that he talked about the trend itself.
That sheet is a mess. Speaking of any trend there is a pretty big euphemism. There is a huge amount of variance in that data, and it's barely correlated to the passage of time. The only reason there appears to be a trend towards one-team dominance is because of the small sample size, which makes outliers overly influential. It looks like if you removed the first 10 or so data points (until the mid 1980s) the trend for the WCC-winning team would actually point in the opposite direction. Similarly, the data for the #2 and #3 team is all over the place, you simply can't speak of a trend there.

To illustrate this point, just look at this graph: http://www.theanalysisfactor.com/images/graph-3.gif Just because you can plot a line based on least squares between some data points doesn't mean that you have a trend. Using linear regression in this manner is very bad practice, although very common among people who use statistics without understanding the math and assumptions underlying these methods.

Richard
Richard
Moderator
Joined: 15 Apr 2009, 14:41
Location: UK

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

As I mentioned in the engine unfreeze thread:
Richard wrote:I... the complaint is about Merc dominance. There have been seasons that have had more dominant teams under much more open regs and no engine freeze:

Code: Select all

Team 	Season  Percentage wins
McLaren	1988	   94%
Ferrari	2002	   88%
Ferrari	2004	   83%
Mercedes  2014	   77%
Williams  1996	   75%
McLaren	1984	   75%
Red Bull  2013	   68%
Benetton  1995	   65%
Red Bull  2011	   63%
Williams  1993	   63%
Williams  1992	   63%
McLaren   1989	   63%
Ferrari	2000	   59%
McLaren	2005	   53%
It seem pretty scatter gun to me.

User avatar
rscsr
51
Joined: 19 Feb 2012, 13:02
Location: Austria

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

edit: deleted --> not useful
Last edited by rscsr on 05 Oct 2014, 22:33, edited 2 times in total.

Moxie
Moxie
5
Joined: 06 Oct 2013, 20:58

Re: Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

Post

Aesto wrote: That sheet is a mess. Speaking of any trend there is a pretty big euphemism. There is a huge amount of variance in that data, and it's barely correlated to the passage of time. The only reason there appears to be a trend towards one-team dominance is because of the small sample size, which makes outliers overly influential. It looks like if you removed the first 10 or so data points (until the mid 1980s) the trend for the WCC-winning team would actually point in the opposite direction. Similarly, the data for the #2 and #3 team is all over the place, you simply can't speak of a trend there.

To illustrate this point, just look at this graph: http://www.theanalysisfactor.com/images/graph-3.gif Just because you can plot a line based on least squares between some data points doesn't mean that you have a trend. Using linear regression in this manner is very bad practice, although very common among people who use statistics without understanding the math and assumptions underlying these methods.
Well then I challenge you to do your own research, create your own chart, and paint a prettier picture. As a former biochemist, I am quite comfortable discussing my data, and listening to criticism. I can do without the trash talk. I'll admit that I am not an expert in statistic, but at least I am making some attempt to define the situation, rather than just talking a bunch of $h!T. This is F1 Technical after all.; am I to be the only one to undertake a technical analysis of the competition itself? I am open to collaboration.

I refer you to the thread "Statistical Analysis of F1 Competition"

This chart uses the same data, but shows the standard deviation from the linear regressions

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing