Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

[Pierce89]

...95kg more by the end of the race, or the equivalent one average sized American woman

You bad boy

God even in Alabama they're not that heavy. Remind me to steer clear of your part of the country.

[Juzh]

I couldn't go that far back, was race pace really in the low 20's back then? Granted there was refueling, maybe by 2018 they can get close to that, but not this year.

https://www.formula1.com/en/results.htm ... -laps.html

[nevill3]

So Kimi's qualifying timein q3 was 1:21.8 with his starting race fuel on board in 2008, but 1 :20.7 in q1 and q2 will we see those sort of times this year, lets hope so.

Last year Lewis did a 1.22ish in qualifying so maybe we will see sub 1.20s

[godlameroso]

In 2009 Barichello did a 1:19 in q2, Webber did a 1:19.8 in q3 in 2010. They did manage a 1:18 during winter testing in 2010 IIRC.

[Juzh]

In 2009 Barichello did a 1:19 in q2, Webber did a 1:19.8 in q3 in 2010. They did manage a 1:18 during winter testing in 2010 IIRC.

No, red bull sandbagged so much in 2010 testing they were actually slower than in the race weekend by around 0.5s, while all other teams were a lot faster in testing they they were come qualifying. I'd say they could have done low 1.19 if they wanted to, but didn't.

[misterbeam]

Race pace is not only about race fuel, it's also about saving the engine and managing the ERS.

Take for example the 2009 season, there was no fuel burning during Q3 back then, so they had to qualify on like 50 kg of fuel on average, but their race pace (fastest lap) was about 1- 2 sec slower than Q3 pace.

For 2017, i expect the race pace to be around low 23s, maybe less if someone decides to change tyres with few laps to go

[Andres125sx]

Race pace is not only about race fuel, it's also about saving the engine and managing the ERS.

Take for example the 2009 season, there was no fuel burning during Q3 back then, so they had to qualify on like 50 kg of fuel on average, but their race pace (fastest lap) was about 1- 2 sec slower than Q3 pace.

For 2017, i expect the race pace to be around low 23s, maybe less if someone decides to change tyres with few laps to go

Exactly, 1-2 seconds. Nowadays that´s around 4-5 seconds. There was a time were seconds were a too large unit for F1...

[henry]

The FIA have told the organisers in Australia that medium to high speed corner speeds will be 20 to 50kph faster, braking 20 - 30 metres earlier, and that team simulations suggest 3 to 4 seconds a lap faster

Lap length 5.3 km.

2016 qualy lap 1:24. Average speed 227 kph

Taking the upper prediction

2017 qualy lap 1:20. Average speed 238.5

11.5 kph faster = 5%


Reading across to Barcelona

Lap length 4.65 km

2016 qualy lap 1:22. Average speed 204kph

If 5% faster lap 214kph 1:18.2

Since Barcelona is slower the gain is likely to be proportionately less so maybe 204/227 squared, around 4%

So based on the Australia prediction we might expect a 2017 qualy lap of 1:18.9

However I'm not sure that the lap time improvement predicted for Australia looks consistent with the quoted increases in cornering speeds (20 - 50 kph).

If we assume that the cars might be 20kph quicker everywhere on the lap.

The qualy average speed becomes 247 kph, making for a Lap time 1:17.2 which is 6.8 seconds faster. That's 8.8% faster

At Barcelona that might translate to Four fifths of 8.8% = 7% and a qualy time of 1:16.7

This is not dissimilar from the suggestion that one team is suggesting; 1:16.4 if I remember correctly.

[godlameroso]

I frankly don't think that's possible. Not right away, maybe when the teams develop the cars and start unlocking the potentials and learning the secrets MAAAAYBE, at that point they'll need special suits to take that kind of speed.

Keep in mind the 5 seconds faster figure is in regards to 2015, pole was a 1:24 in Barcelona, so a 1:19 is more or less what I expect. Also you have to consider that some teams stand to make a huge gain over last year, so a 5 second improvement may happen to someone like McLaren Honda or Toro Rosso, who will both gain massively from improved power units and new chassis. Where others may only gain 3 or 4 seconds relative to this year.

Look at it this way though, race pace will be close to the pole lap in 2015.

As for Australia the cars will be faster but it's hard to say by how much. I guess it all depends on turns 5, 11, 12, and 14 being flat, as the improved braking will be a wash when you consider the loss in straight line speed. Although with improved power units it may not be a 10kph difference.

[Andres125sx]

The FIA have told the organisers in Australia that medium to high speed corner speeds will be 20 to 50kph faster, braking 20 - 30 metres earlier...

Earlier?

With more downforce (more braking force) and higher drag (lower top speed)?

[henry]

Correct: LATER.

[henry]

I frankly don't think that's possible. Not right away, maybe when the teams develop the cars and start unlocking the potentials and learning the secrets MAAAAYBE, at that point they'll need special suits to take that kind of speed.

Keep in mind the 5 seconds faster figure is in regards to 2015, pole was a 1:24 in Barcelona, so a 1:19 is more or less what I expect. Also you have to consider that some teams stand to make a huge gain over last year, so a 5 second improvement may happen to someone like McLaren Honda or Toro Rosso, who will both gain massively from improved power units and new chassis. Where others may only gain 3 or 4 seconds relative to this year.

Look at it this way though, race pace will be close to the pole lap in 2015.

As for Australia the cars will be faster but it's hard to say by how much. I guess it all depends on turns 5, 11, 12, and 14 being flat, as the improved braking will be a wash when you consider the loss in straight line speed. Although with improved power units it may not be a 10kph difference.

It will be physically challenging certainly. The counterclockwise tracks will be a real challenge, like they used to be. If a 230kph corner goes to 280 that's a 50% increase in g force. I believe Degner1 is such a corner so 3.5g goes to 5.2 , no need for special suits but certainly hard work.

Whenever the rule makers have tinkered with aero they have underestimated the ability of the teams to extract performance from the new rule set. I don't see why this time should be any different. So if they are predicting 5 seconds at Barcelona I would expect that to be a lower bound.

I used the figures given by the FIA to the Australia race organisers. See http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/faste ... =Melbourne

Just as I thought the teams sandbagged with their Pirelli mule cars I would expect them to be downplaying their simulation results. Even though their submissions are being used for safety critical work they will still err on the low side because they don't want other teams to know what level to target. So if they think 3-4kph reduction in lap time it might well be more. After all Melbourne is a faster but similarly twisty track compared with Barcelona so downforce and tyre contact patch will be proportionately greater. So if they expect 3-4 seconds at Melbourne expect more at Barcelona.

During the tests the teams will be similarly cautious. Nobody will go all out or show their latest detailed aero components until they think they will get a couple of races advantage.

[godlameroso]

With testing being so limited I don't think sandbagging is something they can afford to do. They may run heavy fuel and focus on race pace but teams can't hide once they do their race sims.

[FrukostScones]

With testing being so limited I don't think sandbagging is something they can afford to do. They may run heavy fuel and focus on race pace but teams can't hide once they do their race sims.

no.

[godlameroso]

Race pace with a full tank will be in the 25's and 24's, 23's if they're super duper fast, if you see a team hovering around there you know that's what they're focusing on and probably have an extra 5 seconds for qualifying. If you see them doing 22's 21's that means they're on ~ half a tank. Most aero tests, and system checks will be around race pace, perhaps a bit slower. The teams that have wildly fluctuating lap times are simply doing tests and checks. No one is going to go purposefully slow however, they may play around with fuel, ballast, run experimental parts and just gather data, but no one is going to sandbag in the traditional sense. We may not see any low fuel fuel time attack softest tire quali runs from the big teams, but no one is going out there to tread water, not with so many regulation changes. Someone will do an all out glory run, if it's above 1:20 we'll know who's not showing their pace.