How soon can Vettel win 2011 WDC?

[raymondu999]

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10479

[Robbobnob]

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/statistics/2 ... ip-points/

This is only a guide as form variations may dictate different results.

Over the First 12 Gran Prix, Vettel has amassed 259 WDC points and an astounding rate of 21.58 points per race. If we assume him to keep scoring points in a fairly linear pattern (taken from the form graph) we can estimate that Vettel will end the season as WDC on 410 points alone.

If we compare this to the most consistent of the chasing group of Webber, Alonso, Hamilton and Button, Webber has amassed 167 points so far this season at a strike rate of 13.91 points per race. Again if we assume Webber to keep scoring consistently, we can estimate that he will finish his WDC hunt on 264 points.

That is a margin over an approximate second place finisher of 146 points.

It would also suggest that a strong points finish for Vettel at Monza should all but secure him the WDC.

Again i would like to reiterate that this is based on past historical data, and is in no means influenced by speculation into the unknown when considering the remaining 7 races.

[CHT]

Ferrari has openly said that they are now 100% focus on 2012, so I would expect Ferrari pace to drop off for the remaining of the season. Except for Singapore.



Paddy Lowe recently said that at Mclaren they have much more interest in the constructor title than outsiders, and its a matter of pride. So instead of wasting time to remain as 2nd all the time, they probably should do the wise thing of concentrating on 2012.

Anyway, both Mclaren drivers are just too far to catch up.

[Lycoming]

I expect ferrari to be quite strong at monza as well. And Mclaren havnt won a constructors for a very long time despite several drivers titles and pretty much always being a frontrunner. last constructors title was with Hakkinen, Coulthard, Newey and the MP4-13. So I can certainly understand Lowe saying that.

[nipo]

IMO he's already bagged it. It's not the sixth or seventh race now it's the 12th and he's still got quite an awesome gap. Plus he still has the best car with the best pace capable of winning races, as Spa showed.

In comparison Button was able to capture the WDC by only winning in the first few races.

[marcush.]

looking at the last 4 races there is no sign of RedBull losing ground on the points table even though they have only won in Belgium ...its still a massive score of 32.75 per race...when Mclaren managed 22.25 and Ferrari 25.5 on average.....and vettel scored 18 points on average in those 4 races ,alonso 17.5,Webber 14.5 and Hamilton 12...
There is no hint of a turnaround the trend is there are too many differentr challengers taking off each others points but not really from Vettel..
Red Bull should concentrate more on helping Webber to outscore Alonso methinks as on the current rate he will catch up within the next 3 races.

[raymondu999]

Actually I beg to differ on that philosophy. I think they should focus on wrapping up Seb's 2nd WDC first. Then, they'll switch focus to 2012; and THEN help Mark get 2nd in the WDC

[marcush.]

helping Webber is not hindering them to switch focus towards 2012 .They have already .
Vettel waqs on a high risk stategy in Spa which is not the ways to secure the title as quickly as possible as some day it will go wrong.simple as that.
In Monza you would but to not fool around with something like they did in Spa .So lets see if they get their approaqch a bit more measured and focussed instead of staring at the top spot and in dire nead to win that race....
To me Vettel is to lose this not others to win it..this is the point.Stamping your authority is maybe good for ego but you might have to pay for it ..so in this week i would go a lot more conservative till the title is bagged mathmatically and enjoy the restr of the year.

[raymondu999]

What I mean is, once Vettel is home free with the WDC, the constructors will almost be pretty much wrapped up as well. They will be able to switch 100% to the RB8

[marcush.]

RedBull is not HRT ,when the race engineer is doubling up as head of aero....so frankly speaking Rob Marshall may well having the RB8 latest iteration on his laptop discussing items with Newey in the afternoon when there is no camber adjustment to be debated and weighed up ...and Prodromou is factory based anyways..
Goog thing with this will be tobe able to implement and give thought to things you encounter during the season ...like Mercedes finally finding a ways to fit wheels fail safe.

[raymondu999]

Having said that, Marshall, Newey, Prodromou are not uncommon sights to be seen in the paddock. And Geoff Willis is doubling as race engineer?

[CHT]

I actually think that Vettel is no longer thinking of the championship, but enjoying the jounrey of breaking the various records this season. So I would expect him to continue to be sensibly aggressive as long as the car is quick enough.

[raymondu999]

Yeah; I think he knows that no one's likely to beat him anyways; so he has picked his form back up and is just charging for the title

[marcush.]

Having said that, Marshall, Newey, Prodromou are not uncommon sights to be seen in the paddock. And Geoff Willis is doubling as race engineer?

No,I think Willis spoke of Jacky Eckelaert...btw lots of ex Honda staff now at HRT on the engineering side by the looks of things.

[raymondu999]

Ah. Right. I thought it was Willis who was chief aero. Having said that, wasn't he "Technical Director" in RBR? Though that seems to be only by title as he seemed to be more chief of production, doing QC and all.