How soon can Vettel win 2011 WDC?

[Just_a_fan]

Massa can still, mathematically, win the title but it would take a very special set of circumstances. Thus Alonso doesn't have to worry about his team mate - indeed he can expect the team to start instructing Massa to be actively helpful. None of the other title contenders can expect that yet - although Vettel is pretty close because of his position in the team compared to Webber (not the publically nominated No.1 but he is the de facto No.1 at the moment).

I can see the two McLaren drivers finishing the season in worse positions than either might expect to with a "soft" team mate. That is the down side of having a policy of equal treatment between drivers. However, if one or other finds themselves massively ahead of the other one in a few races' time then I'd expect the team mate to publically state their support of the others title bid.

[PlatinumZealot]

Mclaren's downside I think is too many mistakes in the pits when compared to RedBull. Ican only see them really making a dent if the car is somehow 0.5 seconds faster on race pace for the rest of the season. Anything less will be too nip and tuck for them to make up ground.

[Richard]

Vettel has been lucky that there is not a single clear competitor, the spoils for second have been shared between several drivers.

[raymondu999]

I think it's pretty much a given that Vettel will wrap up this year's title. The bigger question is; will he do it in 2009-style; cruising for points? Or will he bounce back and start piling up a few more wins? Either way; I think it's quite scary for the others as if he does wrap up this title (and it's looking likely) he will bounce back a lot stronger in terms of dealing with such championship pressure.

[Just_a_fan]

Vettel has been lucky that there is not a single clear competitor, the spoils for second have been shared between several drivers.

And also that when he doesn't win the wins have been spread across three competitors, not one. Really, the season should have been purely between him and Webber.

The problem for Red Bull, as Brawn found out, is that McLaren and Ferrari are formidable development machines. They might not come up with the next "car to beat" but they'll catch up pretty quickly once they get going. If in-season testing had been allowed then I think RedBull's (and Brawn before them) advantage would have been much shorter lived. For the sake of the title race, the lack of testing has probably been a good thing.

[raymondu999]

Agreed. Also I think we need to take into account that the Red Bull design has been perfected over the past 2.5 years. It's close to optimum, methinks. It's like your toothpaste; when you get to those last few drops of toothpaste; you have to push real hard to eke it all out... It's harder to improve on a 99% test score than it is on an 90% test score.

[bill shoe]

Vettel will comfortably wrap it up before the end of the season and finish ~50 points ahead of #2.

Vettel is still bringing the car home in P2,P3,P4. I hate to say it (I'm not a Vettel fan), but he is doing his job perfectly. He is not overdriving the car or getting stupid, just optimizing the points from each race. There is no possibility that anyone will overcome Vettel's dominant early-season lead.

[RB7ate9]

Vettel will comfortably wrap it up before the end of the season and finish ~50 points ahead of #2.

Vettel is still bringing the car home in P2,P3,P4. I hate to say it (I'm not a Vettel fan), but he is doing his job perfectly. He is not overdriving the car or getting stupid, just optimizing the points from each race. There is no possibility that anyone will overcome Vettel's dominant early-season lead.

I completely agree. Vettel and RBR are running a smart race: trying to maximize points with Vettel in safe pace while taking a bit more risks with Webber to give him higher places and overall maximum points. This is evident in Hungary where Webber pit for inters - a risky proposition - while Vettel stayed out.

I think RBR pulled a Brawn - not in a cheap sort of way, but in a real, strategic fashion. With the lack of in-season testing, Red Bull banked on an outstanding car that would dominate the early season to build a fantastic lead before the money-machines of Ferrari and Maclaren were able to catch up because RBR knew they would. Adrian Newey, for all his brilliance, can't stop Ferrari and Mclaren from pumping time and money into new developments at a pace RBR can't keep up with.

With the effort going into the car, the skill of the drivers (both Vettel and Webber), and the tussle between the top three teams, Vettel will take the WDC by Korea or India. It'll be close, but he'll still be on top.

[raymondu999]

My money; as per my analysis post a few posts back; is on a Suzuka clinch, 4 races off the end. I think we'll see him win again honestly. Whether or not that is before/after him winning the 2011 title (which I think most people are taking for granted) is anyone's guess though.

[Gerhard Berger]

Vettel will comfortably wrap it up before the end of the season and finish ~50 points ahead of #2.

Vettel is still bringing the car home in P2,P3,P4. I hate to say it (I'm not a Vettel fan), but he is doing his job perfectly. He is not overdriving the car or getting stupid, just optimizing the points from each race. There is no possibility that anyone will overcome Vettel's dominant early-season lead.

I completely agree. Vettel and RBR are running a smart race: trying to maximize points with Vettel in safe pace while taking a bit more risks with Webber to give him higher places and overall maximum points. This is evident in Hungary where Webber pit for inters - a risky proposition - while Vettel stayed out.

I think RBR pulled a Brawn - not in a cheap sort of way, but in a real, strategic fashion. With the lack of in-season testing, Red Bull banked on an outstanding car that would dominate the early season to build a fantastic lead before the money-machines of Ferrari and Maclaren were able to catch up because RBR knew they would. Adrian Newey, for all his brilliance, can't stop Ferrari and Mclaren from pumping time and money into new developments at a pace RBR can't keep up with.

With the effort going into the car, the skill of the drivers (both Vettel and Webber), and the tussle between the top three teams, Vettel will take the WDC by Korea or India. It'll be close, but he'll still be on top.

RBs resources are close to that of Mclaren and Ferrari in terms of numbers and funding.

[RB7ate9]

RBs resources are close to that of Mclaren and Ferrari in terms of numbers and funding.

Source? Not doubting you, but I would like to know where you are coming from.

[CHT]

Weather Ferrari and Mclaren stand a chance to win will pretty much depends if they want to continue their aggressive development program for their 2011 cars.

Ferrari already stated they are going to focus on 2012 next month. Will Mclaren do likewise?

[HampusA]

Realiability will start to play it´s role during the 2nd half of the season.
That´s when we will know what teams or engine manufacturers has taken care of the engines the best.

I´m quite curious regarding EBD and if it has an effect on the engine in the long run..
I know Merc and Renault said their engines could damage without it :S

[scotty86]

I think at Korea, maybe Suzuka if what i'm about to say proves to be slightly wide of the mark. I'd be amazed if his consistent form continues for the rest of the season, so i predict that 85 point gap won't last... but it won't fall by much.

[ringo]

How soon?

I say he already has.