All within the realms of possibility (though p11 for Caterham is sadly most unlikely without multiple crashes imho). I agree that the top 10 or so in quali will be within 1 second assuming they all go for it in q3.
I'd also put my money on Webber either winning from the front row or messing up and losing places then getting tangled up with other cars like last year - this race is massive for him.
Taking that into consideration:
Quali:
Vettel
Webber
Hamilton
Button
Rosberg
Alonso
Schumi
Raikonnen
Hülkenberg
Massa
Race:
Webber (see proviso above)
Vettel
Hamilton
Schumi
Button
Raikonnen
Rosberg
Alonso (if he can keep the tyre deg low)
A Force India
A Sauber