2017 Championship Permutations

[Jolle]

Jolle, I don't believe Baku would have changed my calculations at all. Baku, would have been a Hamilton win and Vettel second, which only betters the odds in Vettels favor (of achieving a statistical higher finishing position in the races where Hamilton wins).

My calculations aren't suggesting the probability of who is going to win the next 6 races. My calculations are merely pointing out that on average, Vettel has finished on average a lot higher when NOT winning versus Hamilton who has statistically finished lower when Vettel has won. It's undisputed that Ferrari has been very strong on certain tracks - if we assume that Ferrari will be strong again on at least 3 of the next 6 races, the statistical finishing positions of the driver not winning are rather important to assess and IMO show Vettel to be at an advantage.

In other words, my calculations suggest that on the tracks where Ferrari might win due to having a car better suited to that track, statistically, it's more likely Hamilton will finish on average 3.8 or worse (for example because Kimi will more often than not be ahead of Hamilton too). On the tracks where Hamilton/Mercedes might be stronger, Vettel is still likely to finish higher (than Hamilton when Vettel wins) - as per my numbers, on average position 2.7. You see where I am going?

I see where you are going and understand the math, but I don’t feel it holds up in real life for this instance. Nine times out of ten (well, 8 out of 10 this season), if Hamilton has a trouble free weekend, he wins. That has more to do with the advantage of Mercedes then Hamilton himself. When he does have trouble, he falls back more. When Vettel has a perfect weekend, a win isn’t as “normal” as with Hamilton.

[Phil]

I don't quite agree. Every track is different. Just because a car was strong on A, B, C does not mean it will also be strong on track D. For example: Even though Mercedes won most races this season, didn't make Mercedes favorites at Singapore, a track we knew beforehand would not suit the car. According to Mercedes insiders (reported by AMuS), the last 3 races could be difficult for Mercedes because they require high downforce levels and Ferrari has a very strong downforce package.

So simply assuming Mercedes will do well, because they have done well on most tracks this season is not taking into account that their performance on differing tracks is not that relevant, just as it wasn't for Singapore or Monaco. What we do know however, going by this season, is that when Ferrari goes well, both Ferrari's go well and given that the Ferrari is closer to the RedBull in terms of package, design but with better performance (due to a better PU), we can deduct that on those tracks, Mercedes is likely to encounter strong Ferrari (both Ferraris) and strong RedBulls. However, on the track where the Mercedes car shines, it's usually very strong - stronger than both the Ferrari and RedBull. But on those crucial tracks, the Ferrari will likely be ahead of the RedBull due to a better PU.

So I think taking that into consideration and my numbers aren't that far off from what we can expect. Feel free to predict which races you think Ferrari will win and which ones Mercedes and I'll be happy to run the numbers to see the probability of where the weaker car finishes and how much impact it will have on the WDC. Going by your logic that Mercedes is likely to win the next 5 out of 6 races because they have a 80% winning ratio (8 out of 10)... sorry, I just don't see that happening.

[TAG]

Malaysia and the US are the only two that I can say with certainty will favor Mercedes, the rest will either favor Ferrari or be an even toss up IMO. In those, rain, driver and strategy can and certainly WILL also play a factor.

Vettel has never performed well under pressure, he's shown that a few times this year alone.

There's nothing guaranteed in the sport as way of results, and Singapore showed us that. But even with two circuits benefiting Mercedes and the rest either leaning toward Ferrari or being equal. The point is there are no other weak Mercedes tracks left like Monaco and Singapore, and that kind of performance gap is what Ferrari would need to recoup mass points.

That or a couple of Hamilton DNFs.

[Phil]

Well, if one looks at Mercedes performance last year at the 6 remaining tracks, one could say that those tracks could be a toss up between the two. In fact Mercedes had a marginal advantage last year on some of them, so with Ferrari being so close this year, one could assume Ferrari being quicker there this time around.

I stand behind my numbers, although of course those assume that either Vettel or Hamilton wins and no DNFs or penalties for either.

One thing that will however play a big factor is how well Mercedes could retain an advantage through being stronger in qualifying on especially tracks where they might be slower during the race but overtaking is difficult.

I'll do some maths later for some possible scenarios and we can later determine how accurate they end up being...

[NathanOlder]

Phil, after reading your predictions it sounds almost like Vettel is favourite for this title. After many fans agreeing that Vettel needed a good 10+ point advantage after Singapore and not getting it, he's about 40 points behind where most of us felt he needed to be in order to fight for the title.

[TAG]

Let's all stop pretending and say what we really want, a real mano a mano battle between Verstappen and Hamilton in a Brazil race day like the one he had in 2016. That would make up for quite a bit of the missed "opportunities" for racing we've had this year.

[i70q7m7ghw]

It will probably go down to the wire, but Hamilton winning at Singapore has swung thing massively, it should have been a chance to Ferrari to make a big impact on the championship but instead they made their biggest loss.

Sepang, Suzuka and CoTA should all favour the Mercedes. Abu Dhabi, much like Baku, will probably also be a strong Merc track. It's tight and technical but you can't really overtake in those sections, the long straights will favour the Mercedes and probably help them steal pole position. There could be more DNFs, but grid penalties are a certainty and Vettel is on the back foot in this regard. If I was going to put money on it, I'd put it on Hamilton.

[TAG]

it should have been a chance to Ferrari to make a big impact on the championship but instead they made their biggest loss.

They did make a big impact.

[zeph]

it should have been a chance to Ferrari to make a big impact on the championship but instead they made their biggest loss.

They did make a big impact.

[PlatinumZealot]

Tracks that Ferrari are very good at are tracks where Mercedes is absolutely bad and other cars get ahead of Mercedes. For example Monaco and Singapore. When it is the other way around though, the Ferrari car is still strong enough to stay in front of the rest. Tracks like Silverstone and Monza. There are some tracks that Ferrari were supposed to win on race pace yet they managed to screw up through strategy or driver errors. These tracks are Russia, Barcelona, Austria and Spa.

For lack of anything better to base my estimations on, I think we can characterize the tracks where Ferrari have total advantage and the other tracks where they have a clear race pace advantage. These six tracks coming up are not easily described as high or low downforce, they are sort of in between. We have to look at things like gearshifts per lap, elevation changes, steering angles, average turn radius, track surface temperatures and altitude among other characteristics . The task is not easy though, as Mercedes themselves are having a bit of trouble identifying which tracks they will be stronger than Ferrari at. First Toto said they will be strong at all except Mexico and AbuDhabi, and then you have Hamilton singling out Suzuka and Brazil as weak tracks. A tough prospect to say where it will sway.

[Jolle]

If Hamilton wins three out of six remaining races and finishes one of the other three in front of Vettel he is world champion, even if Vettel wins the other two (and Lewis DNF’s in both of those) and is second at all Hamilton’s wins.

[NathanOlder]

I guess it all depends on what Mercedes bring to Malaysia and also how good Ferraris 900ml oil engine is.

[Phil]

Phil, after reading your predictions it sounds almost like Vettel is favourite for this title.

What if they are? A few things to ponder...

The fact that after Monza, the gap was merely 3 points in Hamiltons favor, him having won his 6th GP vs Vettels 4 should be quite alarming. Two more wins and only a point advantage of 3 points? This suggests that one driver has been quite a bit more consistent so far this season than the other.

My calculations back this theory up. Again: On average, Vettel finishes in position 2.6 when not winning over Hamilton in position 3.8 when not winning. Here's the numbers sheet I made to illustrate how these numbers were derived:



NOTES:
1.) Column 1: Reality, Column 2: Altered results, Column 3 position & point loss vs the other driver
2.) I did the math with slightly altered results to get a better picture of car/driver performance
3.) those alterations were: Baku: HAM win, VET 2nd, Silverstone: VET 3rd (no tire blowout), Singapore VET win, HAM 4th
4.) I only analysed races where either VET or HAM won. Excluded were Russia and Austria.
5.) Numbers are rounded to one digit
6.) On the premise of these alterations, VET would be leading the WDC by 10 points (wins 5 vs 7).
7.) Apologies about the scale/size. Lazy printscreen off mobile...
8.) And yes, quite evidently... I have no life.


Why is that?

I think there are a few reasons for this:

#1
The Mercedes is a bit on a knife-edge where set-up is concerned. Either it works or it doesn't. This has led to races where one of the Mercedes was fast and the other was not. Or both slow. Or both quick.

#2
Ferrari have been consistently strong, even on tracks where they have been slower than Mercedes, they were easily 2nd fastest. In short: Ferrari has a very good package that works very good on most/all tracks so far.

#3
When the Ferrari is strong, so is RedBull. I think this is due to both having a similar design philosophy (short wheelbase, high rake). The difference being that Ferrari has a better PU.


I think these are possible reasons that lead to the very simple conclusion: When Vettel wins, there's usually another Ferrari or RedBull in 2nd and 3rd with Mercedes behind. Vice-versa, when Mercedes wins, it's usually a Ferrari right behind, if not right behind Hamilton. The statistics so far underline this trend quite nicely. And if this "trend" prevails over the course of the next coming 6 races, Hamilton could find himself needing the "buffer" he has gained over Vettel to secure his 4th WDC.


So I've done the math and as far as permutations go, it looks something like this:

#Vettel is WDC if (assuming Hamilton does the best possible results...)

• he wins all 6 remaining GPs
• he wins 5 out of the next 6 GPs and secures 2nd in the GP he doesn't win (WDC on count of wins)

#Hamilton is WDC if (assuming Vettel does the best possible results...)

• he wins at least 1 GP and finishes at least 2nd in the rest and Vettel has a 3rd place
• he wins at least 2 GPs and finishes at least 3rd in the rest (Hamilton wins by 2 points)
• he wins at least 2 GPs and finishes at least 2nd once, twice 3rd and once in 4th
• he wins at least 2 GPs and finishes at least 2nd twice, once 4th and once 5th
• he wins at least 2 GPs and finishes at least 2nd three times and once 8th
• he wins at least 3 GPs and finishes one time 5th and two times 6th
• he wins at least 3 GPs and has a DNF and a 3rd and 4th place
• he wins at least 3 GPs and has a DNF and a 2nd and a 6th place
• he wins at least 4 GPs (yes, he can have two DNFs then)

Now, I think it's highly unlikely that one or the other will go on a winning streak. As far as remaining races go, I think some of them will be a toss up and some could be Ferrari territory (Brazil, Mexico, Abu Dhabi). In my personal opinion, if Hamilton secures at least 2 wins, it will be crucial for him to finish at least 3rd in the rest. Which, according to my stats is unlikely given he finished on average in position 3.8 when not winning so far, yes, seldom in 2nd behind Vettel. This means he will have to be better than he has been so far this season. If it is achievable will depend on how strong Kimi is and if a RedBull will be ahead of Hamilton. So I'd rather stick to the numbers highlighted in my spreadsheet under the assumption that if Vettel wins a race, there's a higher probability of Hamilton finishing on average in position 3.8 (e.g. more often 4th than 3rd). If this assumption holds true and proves to be correct, he will need to finish statistically higher than Vettel more often than not (e.g. by winning at least 3 GPs). Of course, vice-versa holds true - if Bottas can raise his game in the races where Hamilton wins and secure a position higher than Vettel, it will be damaging to Vettels WDC ambition. Under this scenario, Hamilton could get away with 2 wins (if he continues to secure two 3rd and two 4th positions).


...so, having that said; Anyone feel free to start shredding my numbers to pieces. Of course, nice treatment, critical thoughts or suggestions are always preferable.

[NathanOlder]

Ferrari and Red Bull don't have strong tracks, Mercedes have weak tracks, and i feel the weak tracks for Merc have passed.

Your numbers clearly show when Vettel doesn't win he regularly manages a good result although of Hamiltons 7 wins Vettel only followed him home 3 times (less than half)
Hamilton has won half the races this year even with Baku.

Vettel has only won 57% of races Hamilton didnt win, so Vettel has won 57% of half the races. That means on that form he will win 1.7 races, so being generous we can call it 2 wins (50pts) then we can add to that tally Vettel will follow Lewis home in 2.5 races so being generous again to Vettel we can call that 3 (54pts) then the 1 remaining race to go, vettel has averaged 9pts across the 5 races he didnt finish 1st or 2nd, seeing as you can't score 9pts we will give Seb 10pts. So if form continues he will score 50pts + 54pts + 10pts = 114pts.

Hamilton has won half the races so thats easy to work on (75pts)

When Vettel has won , Lewis followed him home on half of Vettels wins. So as we have Vettel winning 2 races , Ham will get 1 second place (18pts)

Then the 2 remaining races we look at Hamiltons results where he wasn't 1st or 2nd. He has an average of 10.4pts across 5 races. So we can knock Hamiltons average down to 10pts.

So Hamilton should score of his season long form

75 + 18 + 10 = 103pts.

All of the workings have been generous to Vettel and he only outscores Lewis by 11pts. He has a 28 point deficit so I just cant see how Vettel can over turn this.

Ferrari are apparently closer to the limit on parts (Turbo), Ferrari havent yet introduced their 900ml oil burn engine and Mercedes are rumoured to be bringing plenty of upgrades.

[Phil]

I don't disagree Nathan. Just a little point though... Vettel has overturned a higher point deficit in both 2010 and 2013. I guess I am just a bit weary that Mercedes might lose big on the 3 races that they supposedly will struggle (relative to Ferrari, who I expect to be strong contenders in all of the coming races, even the ones they don't win). The numbers are all in good fun though.

It is true though; in order for Vettel to win this years WDC, the onus is definitely on him to win the races. Every time there's a race he doesn't win, it will of course favor the driver leading the WDC (that being Hamilton). Again, my numbers are strictly on the presumption that the trend continues and that Ferrari end up being strong in the coming races (potentially stronger than Mercedes) and that on the races Hamilton doesn't win, they could lose big.