2017 Championship Permutations

[Fulcrum]

Eh...

Not to be too hyperbolic, but Hamilton could take an entirely new engine at every remaining event, start from the pitlane to avoid first corner incidents if need be, and he'd still have enough pace to win the championship.

He only needs 41 points from 4 races. Three 5th places and one 4th place would be enough, and that car-driver pairing can easily go from last to top 5. In fact, its a practical certainty, considering Bottas would move aside at every opportunity, leaving only the Ferrari and Red Bull drivers as 'hard passes'.

Only DNFs for Hamilton will prevent him from winning the championship now. But we've been saying this for about 3 races already, and yet people (notably Phil) are still talking up Vettel's chances. Yes, it is possible; however, it is highly, highly improbable.

[Restomaniac]

Eh...

Not to be too hyperbolic, but Hamilton could take an entirely new engine at every remaining event, start from the pitlane to avoid first corner incidents if need be, and he'd still have enough pace to win the championship.

He only needs 41 points from 4 races. Three 5th places and one 4th place would be enough, and that car-driver pairing can easily go from last to top 5. In fact, its a practical certainty, considering Bottas would move aside at every opportunity, leaving only the Ferrari and Red Bull drivers as 'hard passes'.

Only DNFs for Hamilton will prevent him from winning the championship now. But we've been saying this for about 3 races already, and yet people (notably Phil) are still talking up Vettel's chances. Yes, it is possible; however, it is highly, highly improbable.

And that would require nobody taking points off Vettel for P1. Ignoring Rikkonen for obvious reasons. I can't imagine the RB's or Bottas not now doing that.

[i70q7m7ghw]

...assuming Hamilton has a compromized PU coming off Suzuka (the vibrations reported at the end)...

They confirmed after the race there was no vibration related to the PU, just tyres slightly outside the operating window. We have seen some strange vibrations from the Pirelli tyres under acceleration and it appears this was a similar thing.

Power unit element usage pre Suzuka:-

ICE / TC / MGU-H / MGU-K / ES / CE
Mercedes / Lewis Hamilton (4 4 4 3 3 3)
Ferrari / Sebastian Vettel (5 5 5 3 4 4)

I'm not sure what he's done on each of those engines, having completed every race he's done the maximum milage across those components. However, they have "turned them down" at every opportunity which is paying dividends at this stage in the season. Worst case he takes a new ICE, TC & MGU-H and does 1 race from the back, he'll probably still get points and he will have a whole new PU for the remained of the season.

[i70q7m7ghw]

Not to be too hyperbolic, but Hamilton could take an entirely new engine at every remaining event, start from the pitlane to avoid first corner incidents if need be, and he'd still have enough pace to win the championship.

Ironically, it's been new components that have hurt Ferrari recently. The turbo failures in Malaysia I believe were caused by a new part, and I believe the ICE Vettel had this weekend was also new? Perhaps some QA issues creep in on the new components that the race engineers aren't able to spot.

[Fulcrum]

Eh...

Not to be too hyperbolic, but Hamilton could take an entirely new engine at every remaining event, start from the pitlane to avoid first corner incidents if need be, and he'd still have enough pace to win the championship.

He only needs 41 points from 4 races. Three 5th places and one 4th place would be enough, and that car-driver pairing can easily go from last to top 5. In fact, its a practical certainty, considering Bottas would move aside at every opportunity, leaving only the Ferrari and Red Bull drivers as 'hard passes'.

Only DNFs for Hamilton will prevent him from winning the championship now. But we've been saying this for about 3 races already, and yet people (notably Phil) are still talking up Vettel's chances. Yes, it is possible; however, it is highly, highly improbable.

And that would require nobody taking points off Vettel for P1. Ignoring Rikkonen for obvious reasons. I can't imagine the RB's or Bottas not now doing that.

Exactly. Hamilton's "41 point" requirement drops with each position less than 1st for Vettel.

In all honesty, Vettel's chances of winning the championship are probably lower than Hamilton's if Hamilton were to skip the last 4 races.

Vettel would need 59 points from 4 events, at an average of 14.75, and his season average is only 14.52. Obviously that 14.52 average was formed with Hamilton taking part, taking points away from Vettel, but I think this illustrates how long the odds are.

[Fulcrum]

Not to be too hyperbolic, but Hamilton could take an entirely new engine at every remaining event, start from the pitlane to avoid first corner incidents if need be, and he'd still have enough pace to win the championship.

Ironically, it's been new components that have heard Ferrari recently. The turbo failures in Malaysia I believe were caused by a new part, and I believe the ICE Vettel had this weekend was also new? Perhaps some QA issues creep in on the new components that the race engineers aren't able to spot.

Difficult to say, but it wouldn't be a surprise to learn the new parts were 'rushed' through the normal development cycle.

[Restomaniac]

Eh...

Not to be too hyperbolic, but Hamilton could take an entirely new engine at every remaining event, start from the pitlane to avoid first corner incidents if need be, and he'd still have enough pace to win the championship.

He only needs 41 points from 4 races. Three 5th places and one 4th place would be enough, and that car-driver pairing can easily go from last to top 5. In fact, its a practical certainty, considering Bottas would move aside at every opportunity, leaving only the Ferrari and Red Bull drivers as 'hard passes'.

Only DNFs for Hamilton will prevent him from winning the championship now. But we've been saying this for about 3 races already, and yet people (notably Phil) are still talking up Vettel's chances. Yes, it is possible; however, it is highly, highly improbable.

And that would require nobody taking points off Vettel for P1. Ignoring Rikkonen for obvious reasons. I can't imagine the RB's or Bottas not now doing that.

Exactly. Hamilton's "41 point" requirement drops with each position less than 1st for Vettel.

In all honesty, Vettel's chances of winning the championship are probably lower than Hamilton's if Hamilton were to skip the last 4 races.

Vettel would need 59 points from 4 events, at an average of 14.75, and his season average is only 14.52. Obviously that 14.52 average was formed with Hamilton taking part, taking points away from Vettel, but I think this illustrates how long the odds are.

Like I said a 1&2 and 2 strolls amongst the fans with the car in the pits wins it.

[PlatinumZealot]

The most damning permutation i can come up with to illustrate how good Vettels chances are of still winning is...

Well, not good.

If Hamilton wins another race and has a 5th place, the title is secured, no matter what Vettel does.


To be slightly more optimistic for Vettel fans and those in the hope of a more exciting season finish...

...assuming Hamilton has a compromized PU coming off Suzuka (the vibrations reported at the end), does anyone know what Mercedes engine allocation is? If i were Mercedes, i would devote resources into securing CotA as that must be surely a strong track for Hamilton and Mercedes. If they win that, they could be more relaxed going into the last 3 races, even with penalties or taking a further PU?

Any thoughts?

Before suzuka been hearing that they have two PU's on schedule to ride out the last five races: one that had done 2 full races and one that had done 3 full races.
So with the five race per engine target the engines' state of wear are as expected. So lets say the engine that did Suzuka fails in Austin. Ham would still have an engine with a minimum of two races left of life in it, and that is enough to bag the championship after Mexico.

[Phil]

Eh...

Not to be too hyperbolic, but Hamilton could take an entirely new engine at every remaining event, start from the pitlane to avoid first corner incidents if need be, and he'd still have enough pace to win the championship.

He only needs 41 points from 4 races. Three 5th places and one 4th place would be enough, and that car-driver pairing can easily go from last to top 5. In fact, its a practical certainty, considering Bottas would move aside at every opportunity, leaving only the Ferrari and Red Bull drivers as 'hard passes'.

Only DNFs for Hamilton will prevent him from winning the championship now. But we've been saying this for about 3 races already, and yet people (notably Phil) are still talking up Vettel's chances. Yes, it is possible; however, it is highly, highly improbable.

And that would require nobody taking points off Vettel for P1. Ignoring Rikkonen for obvious reasons. I can't imagine the RB's or Bottas not now doing that.

Exactly. Hamilton's "41 point" requirement drops with each position less than 1st for Vettel.

In all honesty, Vettel's chances of winning the championship are probably lower than Hamilton's if Hamilton were to skip the last 4 races.

Vettel would need 59 points from 4 events, at an average of 14.75, and his season average is only 14.52. Obviously that 14.52 average was formed with Hamilton taking part, taking points away from Vettel, but I think this illustrates how long the odds are.

If i am not mistaken, Vettel came 2nd 4 (or 5) times to Hamilton winning the race, so had Hamilton not taken part, Vettel would have bagged significantly more points on average. If Hamilton for whatever reason broke his leg and was unable to participate in the remainder of the season, i am fairly confident Vettel would be able to bag it, at the very least with 4 3rd place finishes accumulating 60 points.

Anyway, yes Vettels chances are very slim. Again: Hamilton just needs one more win and a 5th place (not 2nd) and Vettel will be unable to make up those points.

Worst case for Hamilton though - if he DNFs in CotA which i expect to be a strong race for him, and Vettel wins, it would narrow the gap back to 34 points with 3 races to go on which Mercedes may or may not be competitive. That would then mean he could still win it with 3 wins with Hamilton coming in at best 4th, 4th and 3rd.

[Restomaniac]

And that would require nobody taking points off Vettel for P1. Ignoring Rikkonen for obvious reasons. I can't imagine the RB's or Bottas not now doing that.

Exactly. Hamilton's "41 point" requirement drops with each position less than 1st for Vettel.

In all honesty, Vettel's chances of winning the championship are probably lower than Hamilton's if Hamilton were to skip the last 4 races.

Vettel would need 59 points from 4 events, at an average of 14.75, and his season average is only 14.52. Obviously that 14.52 average was formed with Hamilton taking part, taking points away from Vettel, but I think this illustrates how long the odds are.

If i am not mistaken, Vettel came 2nd 4 (or 5) times to Hamilton winning the race, so had Hamilton not taken part, Vettel would have bagged significantly more points on average. If Hamilton for whatever reason broke his leg and was unable to participate in the remainder of the season, i am fairly confident Vettel would be able to bag it, at the very least with 4 3rd place finishes accumulating 60 points.

Anyway, yes Vettels chances are very slim. Again: Hamilton just needs one more win and a 5th place (not 2nd) and Vettel will be unable to make up those points.

Worst case for Hamilton though - if he DNFs in CotA which i expect to be a strong race for him, and Vettel wins, it would narrow the gap back to 34 points with 3 races to go on which Mercedes may or may not be competitive. That would then mean he could still win it with 3 wins with Hamilton coming in at best 4th, 4th and 3rd.

Do you ever wake up feeling like Homer Simpson chasing a hog roast?

[i70q7m7ghw]

I don't understand why people think Mercedes won't be competitive at Abu Dhabi, they've won it every year since 2014 they've been 1-2 for the last two years...

[Phil]

Do you ever wake up feeling like Homer Simpson chasing a hog roast?

Yeah.
But a championship isn’t won before it is done. And while the chance is mathematically slim, it isn’t impossible. Who would have thought that Vettel will suffer 3 races in a row with a significant compromize, two being DNFs, before Singapore? No one.

They can happen to Hamilton too, at the very least there should be some small concern over the vibrations in his PU in Suzuka. Not to mention that DNFs can happen for all sorts of reasons as Vettel is demonstrating.... from driver error to spark plug and others.

It really isnt won till it is.

[adrianjordan]

Do you ever wake up feeling like Homer Simpson chasing a hog roast?

Yeah.
But a championship isn’t won before it is done. And while the chance is mathematically slim, it isn’t impossible. Who would have thought that Vettel will suffer 3 races in a row with a significant compromize, two being DNFs, before Singapore? No one.

They can happen to Hamilton too, at the very least there should be some small concern over the vibrations in his PU in Suzuka. Not to mention that DNFs can happen for all sorts of reasons as Vettel is demonstrating.... from driver error to spark plug and others.

It really isnt won till it is.

Except they've already said the vibration was from a tyre, not the PU.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Do you ever wake up feeling like Homer Simpson chasing a hog roast?

Yeah.
But a championship isn’t won before it is done. And while the chance is mathematically slim, it isn’t impossible. Who would have thought that Vettel will suffer 3 races in a row with a significant compromize, two being DNFs, before Singapore? No one.

They can happen to Hamilton too, at the very least there should be some small concern over the vibrations in his PU in Suzuka. Not to mention that DNFs can happen for all sorts of reasons as Vettel is demonstrating.... from driver error to spark plug and others.

It really isnt won till it is.

After the horror show in 2014, Mercedes has paid enormous amount of attention to the reliability of the PU. From 2015 onward, their failure rate rate has been extremely low, while competitors were trying to change architectures, experiment and go through various strategies to develop PU, Mercedes has been paying highest possible attention to enhance the reliability.

Last year, none of the customers teams had a failure and neither this year so far. The only one that had an engine failure and a few reliability issues last year, was Hamilton. This year, only Bottas suffered a PU failure in Spain. Which matches the last year's average failure for a Mercedes PU.

The advantage that Nico enjoyed last year was, when Hamilton was trying to come from behind, Nico could afford to turn down his engine and conserve it's life, which is the case now with Hamilton. In all the four previous races, Monza, Singapore, Malaysia and Japan, Hamilton has turned down his engine as his title rival was lost. That is a massive advantage to have.

With two failures, Ferrari has a big headache in their hand to analyze, understand and fix the problems. Even if they think they have fixed it, they will be tentative. The only solace is the championship situation, where there is no other option than attacking, meaning, taking the PU to extreme, meaning, risk.

With Hamilton leading with such a handy lead, if he falls behind Vettel in any of the next races, he will play the percentage game and conserve his engine as he can easily afford to do it, just like Nico did last year. If Vettel falls behind, he will have to push and take risk.

[Phil]

All true points. Except that Hamilton’s engine last year in Malaysia should never have blown - it was practically brand new.

And according to all reports, Vettels two DNFs werent PU caused. They were external parts supplied by an outside supplier. That includes the defect carbon tube/channel and the spark plug in Suzuka. The big question however is, if Vettels engine may have been damanged through the fault of the spark plug failure....