2017 Championship Permutations

[TAG]

Bottas will back Hamilton as a number two, the way Kimi has been doing for Vettel.

You're not factoring in technical issues. Ferrari has been perfect, both Mercedes drivers have had to start from the back of the grid, in circuits that would have suited them. Secondly, Vettel has seen a massive amount of luck (some would call it manipulation) to account for that points difference that you're not including in your numbers. I know we've gone around on this, but you can't discount the law of averages on Vettel's luck holding out for the next six races. Baku alone would have destroyed your math that was a freak and not just on the loss of a win for Hamilton, but on negative tally for Vettel at least a 35 point gap.

We can spin it every which way till Tuesday but unless Hamilton DNFs there is no way for Vettel to win. In 2010, there were 5 people competing for the championship, this year there's only 2. In 2013 the car Vettel had in the second part of that season, was more dominant in every way shape and form to the Mercedes of this new Hybrid era. Neither of those two factors exist. So the probability is zilch.

[Phil]

Baku alone would have destroyed your math that was a freak and not just on the loss of a win for Hamilton, but on negative tally for Vettel at least a 35 point gap.

I'm not sure I understand. I accounted for Baku, assuming an easy victory for Hamilton and 2nd for Vettel. In that sense, I negated the stupid headrest issue for Hamilton and Vettels self inflicted burnout of rage. So no, it does not negate the statistics but underlines it further (strong Vettel result when Hamilton wins). One could also say that Russia was a freak win for Mercedes too with the start that Bottas had - in reality, it should have been an easy win for Vettel. Assuming it would have been, where would have Hamilton finished? (Hint: not in 2nd). This just further underlines the general strength of Ferrari this season and what my spreadsheet is trying to highlight...

[NathanOlder]

But Hamilton would have won and Vettel would have been 5th in Baku. Lewis loss of points was down to bad luck, Sebs was his own stupid way? So if you factor that in it gives Lewis 15pts more and Seb 3 less. So his 28pts lead now grows to 45pts!

I think the only things you can change for prediction reasons is bad luck. And Seb has had none. Mostly good luck with soft steward decisions and his Rival suffering bad luck (gearbox pen, headrest) so if you take out bad luck Lewis gets even stronger!

Dont get me wrong, Seb can win the WDC , of course he can, i just think the odds are way too heavily stacked against him, your theories Phil seem like Vettel is favourite.

Yes when Lewis wins, Seb is 2nd. But Lewis wins too much and 2nd doesn't win you a WDC

[Phil]

Sorry Nathan, why would it make sense to factor out Hamiltons headrest issue but not Vettels act of stupidity when we are interested in coming up with realistic estimates based on their respective technical performance?

It just doesnt. Just as it doesnt to assume Vettel will have another 5 minute of rage in one of the upcoming races that will impact the WDC in a meaningful way.

Again: my numbers only illustrate the past performance, slightly altered to show their true performance (and not their result influenced by stupidity) to derive a picture of the upcoming races if the trend continues.

[TAG]

It just doesnt. Just as it doesnt to assume Vettel will have another 5 minute of rage in one of the upcoming races that will impact the WDC in a meaningful way.

...well

and BTW, apologies, I'd not read your post in details if you did factor Baku accordingly as you say, then I'm fine with that. You hadn't in other comparison and, what do you know I jumped to conclusions.

[Jolle]

Sorry Nathan, why would it make sense to factor out Hamiltons headrest issue but not Vettels act of stupidity when we are interested in coming up with realistic estimates based on their respective technical performance?

It just doesnt. Just as it doesnt to assume Vettel will have another 5 minute of rage in one of the upcoming races that will impact the WDC in a meaningful way.

Again: my numbers only illustrate the past performance, slightly altered to show their true performance (and not their result influenced by stupidity) to derive a picture of the upcoming races if the trend continues.

Vettel’s rage and stupid actions is something he has on a regular basis. So yes, you should count those in.

[zeph]

I think Mercedes/Hamilton have had an upswing in the second half of this season, not dissimilar to the one RBR had in 2013. I wouldn't put money on it, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Mercedes wins all the remaining races. I think they have more in the bag than they have let out.

[NathanOlder]

Phil, Surely there is a much higher chance of Vettel having another "vettel moment" that Hamilton having a headrest issue ?

All im saying is, the races Lewis has been out of luck (Baku, A1 ring) have been completely out of his control. Vettel had one at Silverstone with the tyre blowout.
Vettel influenced his own bad results (Baku & Singapore) so he is capable of doing it again.

Im pretty sure Mercedes will never have a headrest failure ever again.

[ringo]

Phil,
I would not say it is unlikely for hamilton to be on the podium when vettel wins. Look on it the other way; it is likely Hamilton will win once he starts on the first 2 rows. When he is not on the podium it is because of the issues with the car on particular tracks, or because of technical issues.
The upcoming tracks he has gone pretty strongly on last year. I don't think he will start below the second row for them.
Also i think it is quite likely he will win all of the remaining races if no one crashes him out and the car doesn't have any issues.
Vettel's hopes require he focus and control his nerves for 6 more races. I cannot see him doing that with Max and Ricciardo up his arse on the grid in the tracks where redbull will be just as strong as the ferrari.

[NathanOlder]

Phil,
I would not say it is unlikely for hamilton to be on the podium when vettel wins. Look on it the other way; it is likely Hamilton will win once he starts on the first 2 rows. When he is not on the podium it is because of the issues with the car on particular tracks, or because of technical issues.
The upcoming tracks he has gone pretty strongly on last year. I don't think he will start below the second row for them.
Also i think it is quite likely he will win all of the remaining races if no one crashes him out and the car doesn't have any issues.
Vettel's hopes require he focus and control his nerves for 6 more races. I cannot see him doing that with Max and Ricciardo up his arse on the grid in the tracks where redbull will be just as strong as the ferrari.

Perfect. Red Bull are well and truely in the mix now. So if Merc do have any advantage over Ferrari it will be even more important with Max and Ric fighting Seb for the podium. Only car failures and crazy 1st lap accidents can take it away from Lewis now

[TAG]

Im pretty sure Mercedes will never have a headrest failure ever again.

^^ This.

Has anyone seen Hamilton or Bottas make a bad start this year?

[PlatinumZealot]

The new mercedes "finger pockets" pretty much fool proofs the starts.

We finally get to see Vettel fight a chamionship in equal cars. I believe towards the end of 2010 and 2012 he knew he had it won once reliability held up and he kept it on the black stuff. He never really worried about the challengers. Never really raced on the same peice of tarmac with them either.

[Phil]

Phil, Surely there is a much higher chance of Vettel having another "vettel moment" that Hamilton having a headrest issue ?

I prefer to do my predictions based on reasonable assumptions and under a "worst-case/best-case" method. In order to work out a reasonable and probable outcome, the question then becomes how would Hamilton end up being WDC in the worst-case scenario, assuming Vettel does everything right?.

E.g.: Assuming Vettel does everything right, he'll win where he can and be 2nd where he can't. The question then is; how many wins would Hamilton need? This answer has been answered in my post.

One could also ask the opposite: How would Vettel end up being WDC in the worst-case scenario, assuming Hamilton does everything right?.

When tackling the question using both worst and best-case scenarios for each driver, you don't assume that one driver melts down or that a potential headrest could cause a safe win to evaporate. If you start basing predictions on these kind of assumptions, you might as well include hundredths of possible other causes too.

There are evidently people who like to assume a best-case scenario for their driver and worst-case for the other. Fair enough. I presented permutations for both view-points. I did however also outline the trend so far this season and made a reasonable assumption that the rest of the season could pan out similar, that being that Ferrari remains a strong competitor on all tracks and that Mercedes, when not being strongest, may not only face one competitive Ferrari, but two, and a potential RedBull as well that will cause them to lose more points "on a bad day" than Ferrari. How likely this ends up being the case depends how strong (or how much they struggle) on certain upcoming tracks.

I'll be happy to update the spreadsheet as the races continue and we can all see (and judge) if that trend curve continues or not.

[Cannonballer]

Phil, Surely there is a much higher chance of Vettel having another "vettel moment" that Hamilton having a headrest issue ?

I prefer to do my predictions based on reasonable assumptions and under a "worst-case/best-case" method. In order to work out a reasonable and probable outcome, the question then becomes how would Hamilton end up being WDC in the worst-case scenario, assuming Vettel does everything right?.

E.g.: Assuming Vettel does everything right, he'll win where he can and be 2nd where he can't. The question then is; how many wins would Hamilton need? This answer has been answered in my post.

One could also ask the opposite: How would Vettel end up being WDC in the worst-case scenario, assuming Hamilton does everything right?.

When tackling the question using both worst and best-case scenarios for each driver, you don't assume that one driver melts down or that a potential headrest could cause a safe win to evaporate. If you start basing predictions on these kind of assumptions, you might as well include hundredths of possible other causes too.

There are evidently people who like to assume a best-case scenario for their driver and worst-case for the other. Fair enough. I presented permutations for both view-points. I did however also outline the trend so far this season and made a reasonable assumption that the rest of the season could pan out similar, that being that Ferrari remains a strong competitor on all tracks and that Mercedes, when not being strongest, may not only face one competitive Ferrari, but two, and a potential RedBull as well that will cause them to lose more points "on a bad day" than Ferrari. How likely this ends up being the case depends how strong (or how much they struggle) on certain upcoming tracks.

I'll be happy to update the spreadsheet as the races continue and we can all see (and judge) if that trend curve continues or not.

The odds of Hamilton having another headrest issue are significantly less than Vettel having another "melt down". You are implying that the odds are equal.

[Restomaniac]

Phil, Surely there is a much higher chance of Vettel having another "vettel moment" that Hamilton having a headrest issue ?

I prefer to do my predictions based on reasonable assumptions and under a "worst-case/best-case" method. In order to work out a reasonable and probable outcome, the question then becomes how would Hamilton end up being WDC in the worst-case scenario, assuming Vettel does everything right?.

E.g.: Assuming Vettel does everything right, he'll win where he can and be 2nd where he can't. The question then is; how many wins would Hamilton need? This answer has been answered in my post.

One could also ask the opposite: How would Vettel end up being WDC in the worst-case scenario, assuming Hamilton does everything right?.

When tackling the question using both worst and best-case scenarios for each driver, you don't assume that one driver melts down or that a potential headrest could cause a safe win to evaporate. If you start basing predictions on these kind of assumptions, you might as well include hundredths of possible other causes too.

There are evidently people who like to assume a best-case scenario for their driver and worst-case for the other. Fair enough. I presented permutations for both view-points. I did however also outline the trend so far this season and made a reasonable assumption that the rest of the season could pan out similar, that being that Ferrari remains a strong competitor on all tracks and that Mercedes, when not being strongest, may not only face one competitive Ferrari, but two, and a potential RedBull as well that will cause them to lose more points "on a bad day" than Ferrari. How likely this ends up being the case depends how strong (or how much they struggle) on certain upcoming tracks.

I'll be happy to update the spreadsheet as the races continue and we can all see (and judge) if that trend curve continues or not.

The odds of Hamilton having another headrest issue are significantly less than Vettel having another "melt down". You are implying that the odds are equal.

Indeed. One could argue that was what happened last weekend in the rain in Singapore. He was under massive pressure and did something out of the normal because of it.