Phil wrote: ↑22 Sep 2017, 16:33
Let me explain a bit more coherently (and analytically):
Sadly, I am not sure Bottas will be of much help. Either he will be well behind Hamilton, so not in a position to help, or he might be in the lead at which point him scoring a win would probably be better (vs. Ferrari/Vettel) than switching positions. Either way, he is still in the hunt and I am not particularly convinced Mercedes would be strong enough to "manipulate" the race result. They are quite conscious about how their success is perceived. With Hamilton having quite a lead now, they may choose to be more passive, than Ferrari would be under similar circumstances IMO.
For Ferrari, it's a no-brainer. Even if Kimi outqualifies Vettel, I have seen nothing so far that would suggest Ferrari not wanting Kimi to drive in Vettels interest, even if it would mean using him as a pawn and sacrifice a win in order to help Vettel out.
What worries me more as a Mercedes/Hamilton supporter is that I genuinely believe that Ferrari/Vettel will be rather strong in at least 3 of the upcoming 6 races. To re-iterate my point, when Vettel has won the race, Hamilton has only been on the podium twice. Vice-versa, when Hamilton won, Vettel was on the podium 6 times. And there are two races that warp the stats a bit, those being Silverstone (Hamilton won while both Ferraris imploded with tire-issues on the last lap) and Singapore where Vettel would/should have won.
In my estimation; Vettel should have won Singapore with Hamilton down in 4th best-case.
Also: At Silverstone, Vettel (assuming team-orders) should have finished in 3rd behind Hamilton and Bottas.
Lets put that into numbers:
Hamilton: 6 wins, and in 5 races where Vettel won, would have finished in: twice 2nd, twice 4th and one time 7th. That puts Hamiltons average finishing position where Vettel won at exactly 3.8. In points, that's 18+18+12+12+6 = 66 points vs 125 points, so Hamilton lost 59 points or 11.8 points on average at the races he didn't win.
Vettel: 5 wins, and in the 6 races where Hamilton won, would have finished in: thrice 2nd, twice 3rd, and one 4th. That puts Vettels average finishing position where Hamilton won at 2.7.
That's on average one position better than Hamilton. In points that's 18+18+18+15+15+12 = 96 points vs 150 so Vettel lost 54 points or 9 points on average at the races he didn't win.
Now, lets just assume that Ferrari is strong in at least 4 of the upcoming 6 races. Using the above average points of each, for 4 wins going to Vettel, Hamilton would lose an average of 11.8 points per race, or 4*11.8 = 47.2 points. Assuming Hamilton wins the other two races, Vettel would lose a total of 9*2 = 18 points. -28 (gap now) + 47.2 - 18 = 1.2 points in Vettels favor.
Of course, races don't give decimal points. If we don't work with averages and simply ceil (opposite of floor) the positions, we can assume that on the 4 races Vettel wins, Hamilton finishes 3 times in 4th and 1 time in 3rd (average = 3.75 which is pretty close to 3.8 ), that would mean Hamilton loses 49 points to Vettel on those 4 races (12+12+12+15 vs 100). On the two races Hamilton presumably wins we can either assume Vettel is one time 2nd and one time 3rd (average 2.5) or two times 3rd (average 3): Scenario A would yield a loss of 17 points and Scenario B would yield a loss of 20 points vs Hamilton.
Scenario A: -28+49-17 = 4 points in Vettels favor.
Scenario B: -28+49-20 = 1 point in Vettels favor.
So in my analytical estimation, if Vettel happens to win 4 of the next 6 races, there's a very high probability that Vettel will indeed win the championship, even if Hamilton wins the other 2 races. I think Malaysia, Japan and CotA will be potential Hamilton tracks where it will be crucial for him to win.