Coming from the guy who was talking up his magic sugar cube sized gearbox or whatever it was, I find this funny.
Just because something has been around a while doesn't make it stupid. If it works, it works. Until there's something fundamentally new and different... it's not going away.
Grip is a four letter word. All opinions are my own and not those of current or previous employers.
I agree JT,just a lttle levity.
I did not say layshaft gearboxes are going away just yet, just that they were ancient history.
The motor industry will hang on to them as long as possible, the change over to something more modern and more efficient would be way expensive for them at the moment.
Unfortunately for them, not bitting the bullet now will cost them hugely in the future. When electric traction overtakes ic, the need for a new direction in geartrain technology will become both obvious and urgent.
The seamless shift system from x-track is just another attempt on the same theme.
It will have little if any improvement over all to the layshaft gearbox, that will stay inefficient.
I still say it is an attempt to overcome reliability problems and not any kind of development on its own.
It will be a very very long time before electric traction overtakes IC! (as I have learned this week from an annual global gathering of OEMs and T1s focussing on next generation transmission systems).
The emerging markets such as China, Russia & India simply cannot afford electrification (technology or infrastructure).
A low cost AMT system would be ideal for these markets especially as the layshaft architecture has a manufacturing base there.
The "seamless shift" systems being developed for mainstream applications by Xtrac and Zeroshift potentially offer a low cost alternative to markets where conventional AT and DCT cannot gain significant market share due to cost.
By eliminating the friction based components (synchronisers etc) from the transmission, mechanical efficieny can be significantly improved and low cost (electric) actuation implemented.
I agree that developments in IC and AMT transmissions in India, Russia and China will be the short term objective of OEMs and the governments concerned.
However I see little gains from the zero shift or x-trac methods of gear shift in these markets. They will simply add cost. The gains are well offset by the losses in the current fluid fuel infra structures in these countries.
In many places, in India for instance the Morris Oxford and Minors built under licence will be as useful with ancient stick shift gearboxes. Trying to sell modern IC technology into them is a corruption in values both moraly and environmentaly.
IMO it will be foolhardy indeed for these markets to ignore electric vehicles.
It may be convenient for current gearbox manufacturers who are well aware that current pure EVs do not have gearboxes as such, they are not likely to put themselves out of business on the strength of this knowledge.
However, the world CO2 issue and increasing pollution make it esential to change away from ic technology world wide and the sooner the better. This fact alone is likely to bring EVs to the countries you mention faster than manufacturers would like.
Centralised electricity production and infra structures do not yet exist to support the full change over, as you point out but there are many other methods to achieve the transition, from hybrid vehicles to de-centralised alternate energy production incentives. It just takes the political clout to move the manufacturing industries into the right direction.
IMO a new transmission development faze ahould be opened up to improve electric traction (and in the transition period hybrids). There will be a place for transmissions in later generations of EVs but they will have to be far more efficient than current types.
IMO IC vehicles are already on a decline which is accelerating.
Time to smell the roses. It is just a pity that some bankers were not arrested.
I agree with (most of) your points. Regarding electrification, these markets are not ignoring EVs but simply cannot afford them due to economies of scale.
The consumer is crying out for automated transmissions but conventional AMT suffers from torque interrupt. X-trac and Zeroshift are proposing alternatives to AT and DCT that do not add cost. In fact a "seamless" AMT would offer huge cost savings vs AT and DCT.
Mobility in the emerging markets is increasing far more rapidly than electrification is being taken up elsewhere so layshaft architecture and the "ancient stick shift" will maintain market share for the next 20 years+.
Unless a revolution in transmission design is ready for pre-production very soon iterative improvement will continue....care to share any ideas?
My problem Cogs, is that I am retired and no longer run a company as such.
I have some ideas that IMO need to be worked up into systems for conventional, hybrid and EV applications.
The basics have been looked at by Cranfield a number of tranasmission experts and F1 teams and they all concur that a full feasibility study should be undertaken.
Unfortunately I do not have the investment asked for or the inclination to travel around the world at my own expense promoting systems that can be made or not on the whims of politicians, bankers and those with other vested interests.
I have done so in the past and had some ideas used and made some money but this is unusual in the ruthless markets we have today.
