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Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 03:41
by gruntguru
Greg Locock wrote: ↑02 Nov 2022, 23:22
Norway is a bit of a special case. They can afford to build massive electrical infrastructure subsidised by the sale of fossil fuels. And they have lots of hydro.
Low carbon electricity is the stated future for most countries. Sometime around 2060, fossil fueled electricity and transportation will apparently almost disappear.
Worldwide - a lot of electrical infrastructure has to be built between now and 2035 just to keep up with demand and to replace end-of-life plant . . . . . and 2035 is only the end of (combustion vehicle)
sales in the EU.
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 06:41
by Greg Locock
I priced out Chris Bowen's 'plan'
"For example, to achieve Australia’s emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030, it’s estimated that we will need to install about forty 7-megawatt wind turbines every month until 2030.
For solar, while Australia is a global leader in deployment, we still need to install more than 22,000 five hundred-watt panels every day – and 60 million by 2030."
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/sp ... do-pacific
So let's do the dismal task of putting some $ on this pie in the sky nonsense.
Wind turbines cost about $1.3million US ($2M AUD) per MW. Solar costs about $1/W.
So our eminent politician says that we need to spend 280*12*1.3 +11*200 million a year, about $6.6 billion (US) a year. but, we'll also be phasing out baseline powerstations, so we'll need storage as well. We also need power lines, lots of them. Generously assuming that'll only double the cost, $13B a year, about 1% of GDP. Every year. To make 0.0% difference in global CO2 emissions.
I give it until 2027.
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 09:17
by Andres125sx
maxxer wrote: ↑29 Oct 2022, 14:06
I live in the Netherlands and there is a huge amount of income for the government on fuel.
So where will they compensate this from i am wondering.
Its like forbidding alcohol and tobacco even the government knows its bad they still allow it and it brings in alot of money.
If we all go electrict and people charge using solar panels or whatever tech is now showing up.
Maybe even using your solar panels to creat hydrogen during the day.
The governments are losing alot of income
Did you notice electricity price recently?
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 13:10
by MadMax
flmkane wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 02:01
Next, if they're paying 30 billion Aussie dollars, that would mean that they're paying 750-1000 bucks per square meter of solar panel, which translates to about 700 watts of peak power generation (with really high tech panels). But the retail price of solar panels is about 40 bucks. The rest of the money must be going somewhere else but... Where?
The cost covers the everything, doesn't it, not just the panels? The cable between Australia and Singapore is going to be pretty pricey, one would imagine.
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 13:18
by MadMax
Greg Locock wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 06:41
To make 0.0% difference in global CO2 emissions.
If Australia stopped digging and exporting coal it would have a much bigger effect on CO2 levels. It has been suggested that the coal exported by Australia is responsible for c.3% of global CO2 emissions. That's nearly 3 times the CO2 emitted by Australians going about their daily lives.
Of course, coal exports are a big chunk of GDP so...
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 13:20
by johnny comelately
MadMax wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 13:18
Greg Locock wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 06:41
To make 0.0% difference in global CO2 emissions.
If Australia stopped digging and exporting coal it would have a much bigger effect on CO2 levels. It has been suggested that the coal exported by Australia is responsible for c.3% of global CO2 emissions. That's nearly 3 times the CO2 emitted by Australians going about their daily lives.
Of course, coal exports are a big chunk of GDP so...
Whilst this is partially true the other half of it is that someone is buying it. There you go thats the whole truth
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 14:10
by flmkane
MadMax wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 13:10
flmkane wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 02:01
Next, if they're paying 30 billion Aussie dollars, that would mean that they're paying 750-1000 bucks per square meter of solar panel, which translates to about 700 watts of peak power generation (with really high tech panels). But the retail price of solar panels is about 40 bucks. The rest of the money must be going somewhere else but... Where?
The cost covers the everything, doesn't it, not just the panels? The cable between Australia and Singapore is going to be pretty pricey, one would imagine.
At that point it'd be cheaper to just give free solar panels to every single home or commercial building in Singapore, along with a lithium ion power bank.
40 dollars/meter2 * 4000 hectares * 10000 meters/hectare = 1.6 billion dollars
Then you'd have an extra 28.4 billion dollars left for power storage and installation charges. The only problem is that megacorps and robber barons won't be able to charge insane electricity prices afterwards.
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 22:50
by Greg Locock
Max- if Australia stops digging up its high quality coal then China and india will switch to lower grade (and cheaper) Indonesian coal which is wetter and will cause more CO2 to be emitted. Got any other genius ideas?
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 22:57
by MadMax
Greg Locock wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 22:50
Max- if Australia stops digging up its high quality coal then China and india will switch to lower grade (and cheaper) Indonesian coal which is wetter and will cause more CO2 to be emitted. Got any other genius ideas?
That assumes they won't go to another energy source.
You seem to be taking the whole issue personally - why?
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 23:12
by gruntguru
Greg Locock wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 22:50
Max- if Australia stops digging up its high quality coal then China and india will switch to lower grade (and cheaper) Indonesian coal which is wetter and will cause more CO2 to be emitted. Got any other genius ideas?
While I do not support Australia stopping coal exports I don't agree with your conclusion. The actual result would be an increase in the coal price and a significant increase in pressure to switch to other energy sources worldwide.
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 23:24
by johnny comelately
Greg Locock wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 22:50
Max- if Australia stops digging up its high quality coal then China and india will switch to lower grade (and cheaper) Indonesian coal which is wetter and will cause more CO2 to be emitted. Got any other genius ideas?
Not that this is all that important in the long term but some Indonesian coal is the highest grade in that it is very low sulphur and very low ash and they have a significant amount of anthracite. There is much variability of coal quality in every country and classifying it by country would be a mistake IMHO
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 23:30
by gruntguru
Greg Locock wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 06:41
I priced out Chris Bowen's 'plan'
"For example, to achieve Australia’s emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030, it’s estimated that we will need to install about forty 7-megawatt wind turbines every month until 2030.
For solar, while Australia is a global leader in deployment, we still need to install more than 22,000 five hundred-watt panels every day – and 60 million by 2030."
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/sp ... do-pacific
So let's do the dismal task of putting some $ on this pie in the sky nonsense.
Wind turbines cost about $1.3million US ($2M AUD) per MW. Solar costs about $1/W.
So our eminent politician says that we need to spend 280*12*1.3 +11*200 million a year, about $6.6 billion (US) a year. but, we'll also be phasing out baseline powerstations, so we'll need storage as well. We also need power lines, lots of them. Generously assuming that'll only double the cost, $13B a year, about 1% of GDP. Every year. To make 0.0% difference in global CO2 emissions.
I give it until 2027.
Omitted from your analysis:
1. What is the cost of business as usual? (Meet expanding demand, replace aging power stations, ongoing higher electricity cost of fossil fueled plants.)
2. Will PV and Wind turbine prices stop falling?
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 23:30
by Greg Locock
China is building new coal power stations at a rate of 33 GW/year in 2021. Those have a life of 20-30 years once commissioned. They are also installing a lot of wind and solar, but that is slightly irrelevant. I put that in to stop other people indulging in whataboutism.
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 23:42
by johnny comelately
Greg Locock wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 23:30
China is building new coal power stations at a rate of 33 GW/year in 2021. Those have a life of 20-30 years once commissioned. They are also installing a lot of wind and solar, but that is slightly irrelevant. I put that in to stop other people indulging in whataboutism.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/image ... 7/main.svg
That little chart will upset the courageous Greta Thunberg.
Re: European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035
Posted: 03 Nov 2022, 23:46
by MadMax
Greg Locock wrote: ↑03 Nov 2022, 23:30
China is building new coal power stations at a rate of 33 GW/year in 2021. Those have a life of 20-30 years once commissioned. They are also installing a lot of wind and solar, but that is slightly irrelevant. I put that in to stop other people indulging in whataboutism.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/image ... 7/main.svg
So the take away from that is that it's all a waste of time and we may as well carry on burning what we want?
Even stepping away from the issue of CO2, burning fossil fuels is a waste of a perfectly good resource. Oil is a feedstock for so many things and with modern chemistry even waste products like petrol and diesel can be used for other things.