F1 2016 pre-season testing

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Phil
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby Phil » Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:25 pm

I think you will find if you re-read my post that we do in fact agree with one another. Yes, that they tested various engine modes under to us unknown circumstances.

What I disagreed with in your earlier post was specifically:

"So how do you hide your pace with EPU running max power?"

...implying that Mercedes would have reason to do all their runs with the EPU running max power. My point was precisely that this is unlikely to be the case. They may have tested it under certain runs, but not in a way that would make it obvious to other teams how much pace they have in hand or not. There'd be no point in doing that. In order to mask their pace, they could be running various different engine modes and doing runs to test the tire degradation on various different fuel loads and that would give them all the info they would need without having to run all-out, max power.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. (Ask the average Vettel fan what that's like.) --- bhall II

A-Bap
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby A-Bap » Tue Mar 08, 2016 5:29 pm

Phil wrote:I think you will find if you re-read my post that we do in fact agree with one another. Yes, that they tested various engine modes under to us unknown circumstances.

What I disagreed with in your earlier post was specifically:

"So how do you hide your pace with EPU running max power?"

...implying that Mercedes would have reason to do all their runs with the EPU running max power. My point was precisely that this is unlikely to be the case. They may have tested it under certain runs, but not in a way that would make it obvious to other teams how much pace they have in hand or not. There'd be no point in doing that. In order to mask their pace, they could be running various different engine modes and doing runs to test the tire degradation on various different fuel loads and that would give them all the info they would need without having to run all-out, max power.


I think you're missing something here. Consider these factors associated with Merc:

- Supposedly big gains in PU output and efficiency
- Major new aero bits that were put on early, and stayed on
- So-so speed trap numbers (Nico, horrible Lewis, pretty good, which raises other questions)
- Good but not great lap times relative to the rest of front runners

With the new nose & new barge fence, clearly they're very interested in increasing DF and making tires last.

The consistently huge top speed delta between Lewis and Nico while their lap times were close reveals they didn't care a whole about straight line top speed. I think they know they have the power they need, so what's next?

I believe that early on, their focus turned to optimizing DF under yaw in sectors 2 and 3, and not so much total lap time. Tire data and reliability testing were nice peripheral benefits, and gave everyone something to talk about.

Anyone have sector data?

dot235
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby dot235 » Tue Mar 08, 2016 6:21 pm

A-Bap wrote:- Good but not great lap times relative to the rest of front runners

That's wrong.
On softs Rosberg had 2nd best time almost matching Kimi.
Those 2 laptimes very easily the best of all the testing.

Disregard all the SS/US runs from top teams. Those are irrelevant with such a tiny laptime differences from softs, no one was pushing on SS/US.

A-Bap
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby A-Bap » Tue Mar 08, 2016 6:28 pm

dot235 wrote:
A-Bap wrote:- Good but not great lap times relative to the rest of front runners

That's wrong.
On softs Rosberg had 2nd best time almost matching Kimi.
Those 2 laptimes very easily the best of all the testing.

Disregard all the SS/US runs from top teams. Those are irrelevant with such a tiny laptime differences from softs, no one was pushing on SS/US.


Fair point. But I don't think this derails my hypothesis.

basti313
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby basti313 » Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:38 pm

Marco at Formula1.com: “For the first half of the season I see Mercedes doing one-two finishes as long as they do not screw-up, then I see Ferrari and a tight fight between Williams, Force India, Toro Rosso and Red Bull Racing behind them."
That pretty much sums up, what we have seen during testing.

dot235
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby dot235 » Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:45 pm

basti313 wrote:Marco at Formula1.com: “For the first half of the season I see Mercedes doing one-two finishes as long as they do not screw-up, then I see Ferrari and a tight fight between Williams, Force India, Toro Rosso and Red Bull Racing behind them."
That pretty much sums up, what we have seen during testing.

That's pretty much the exact opposite of what we are seeing. For Mercedes to be consistently and easily taking double one after another for half the season they need to have more than current ~0.2s of race pace advantage over Ferrari in Barcelona (the track that tends to suit Merc more). In testing we didn't see that at all.

So I don't know what testing you were following watching but it probably wasn't F1. :mrgreen:

Od course we can speculate or assume anything, but so far there is nothing to back this up with other than your guess.
Last edited by dot235 on Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.

hollus
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby hollus » Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:45 pm

A couple of extracts from the excellent analysis that digitalrurouni linked a page back:

The guy(s) at f1metrics took all of Mercedes' stints on mediums, did their best to correct them for fuel and came up with this graph:
Image
It looks too good and there probably is some over-fitting there, but the take home message is that the faster you drive, the faster your tire degrades.
This explains the whole time management going on, if your sting has to last a lot of laps, slow but slow-degrading is actually the fastest way. (I know, I am last to the party).
They used their own fitted model to calculate just how fast your tires will degrade in an 18 lap stint depending on how fast you push (in a W07 on mediums):

Image

And the optimum average lap time comes at a rather low degradation rate, AKA, pushing little, easily 1-2 seconds slower than one could.

They also calculate the optimum level of pushing (degradation) for stints of a certain length:

Image

You have to stop pushing as soon as you expect your stint to be 7 laps long. And this is on mediums. On defence of the Pirellis, this is also Barna, a real tire eater.

Yes, there is data fitting, then modeling, then more data fitting and then some more modeling involved, but the results are rather compelling and they might hold quite a bit of truth in them.
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
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flickerf1
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby flickerf1 » Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:23 pm

Tech analysis from Giorgio and Matt on serrated wings:

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/tech- ... rn-678135/
The Wicked + The Divine.

langwadt
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby langwadt » Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:40 pm

flickerf1 wrote:
GoranF1 wrote:Mclaren has considerbly better drivers than Renault an Sauber.

Agreed, but the drivers from Renault and Sauber are still young. They've yet to grow into their prime. Jenson and Fernando both started way back in 2000 and 2001. Don't write them off yet.


Kevin pretty much kept up with Jenson in his rookie season, so he can't be that bad

flickerf1
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby flickerf1 » Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:56 pm

langwadt wrote:
flickerf1 wrote:
GoranF1 wrote:Mclaren has considerbly better drivers than Renault an Sauber.

Agreed, but the drivers from Renault and Sauber are still young. They've yet to grow into their prime. Jenson and Fernando both started way back in 2000 and 2001. Don't write them off yet.


Kevin pretty much kept up with Jenson in his rookie season, so he can't be that bad

Yeah, plus Jolyon is the 2014 GP2 champion. You don't get that by being lazy.
The Wicked + The Divine.

Raleigh
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby Raleigh » Wed Mar 09, 2016 12:33 am

Really glad to see Kevin back on the grid after McLaren's treatment of him, very talented driver. As for Palmer, he's a GP2 champion but took 4 years to win the title, so compared to someone like Vandoorne (runner up to Palmer in only his first season, and champion in 2nd year) I'm just not nearly as excited to see him in F1. Still who knows, might surprise, he's certainly not a bad driver, Renault overall has a great line-up.

A-Bap
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby A-Bap » Wed Mar 09, 2016 2:17 pm

Phil wrote:I think you will find if you re-read my post that we do in fact agree with one another. Yes, that they tested various engine modes under to us unknown circumstances.

What I disagreed with in your earlier post was specifically:

"So how do you hide your pace with EPU running max power?"

...implying that Mercedes would have reason to do all their runs with the EPU running max power. My point was precisely that this is unlikely to be the case. They may have tested it under certain runs, but not in a way that would make it obvious to other teams how much pace they have in hand or not. There'd be no point in doing that. In order to mask their pace, they could be running various different engine modes and doing runs to test the tire degradation on various different fuel loads and that would give them all the info they would need without having to run all-out, max power.


Or they could be taking it easy in Sector 1, and doing intensified DF testing and optimization in Sectors 2 and 3. I wish we had sector time time to really investigate this possibility because I think they were pushing through the curvy sections, and cruising down the straight.

krisfx
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby krisfx » Wed Mar 09, 2016 2:24 pm

flickerf1 wrote:
langwadt wrote:
flickerf1 wrote:Agreed, but the drivers from Renault and Sauber are still young. They've yet to grow into their prime. Jenson and Fernando both started way back in 2000 and 2001. Don't write them off yet.


Kevin pretty much kept up with Jenson in his rookie season, so he can't be that bad

Yeah, plus Jolyon is the 2014 GP2 champion. You don't get that by being lazy.


Maldonado was also a GP2 champion....
F1 Aero Engineer. Follow me on Twitter!

Big Mangalhit
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby Big Mangalhit » Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:12 pm

krisfx wrote:
flickerf1 wrote:
langwadt wrote:
Kevin pretty much kept up with Jenson in his rookie season, so he can't be that bad

Yeah, plus Jolyon is the 2014 GP2 champion. You don't get that by being lazy.


Maldonado was also a GP2 champion....


And became a GP winner without being in a Top car

ME4ME
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Re: F1 2016 pre-season testing

Postby ME4ME » Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:56 pm

Big Mangalhit wrote:
krisfx wrote:
flickerf1 wrote:Yeah, plus Jolyon is the 2014 GP2 champion. You don't get that by being lazy.


Maldonado was also a GP2 champion....


And became a GP winner without being in a Top car


After which he crashed his way to fame.




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