The Red Bull Advantage in 2011

[RH1300S]

RBR are very likely to be a championship contender again next year. I'm not sure if they'll have an advantage, but I find it very unlikely that they would drop below the top three teams.

During last winter, many expected Red Bull to drop its pull rod rear suspension because it's not the best fit for a double deck diffuser. Next year though, with the DDD banned, I foresee several other teams copying the rear pull rod suspension - and yes you can write that down and confront me afterwards . It's difficult to see what performance influence that might have, as RBR have the experience, but others may jump the pecking order if there is a reasonable performance advantage.

Lotus will

[Blackout]

And Renault
and many others...

[kalinka]

I think it's logical to think that the big/old teams will have an advantage because of their huge experience over the years of changing rules. New teams doesn't have any experinece in changing tyre manufacturer for instance. McLaren sure will have a slight advantage with KERS.
Ferrari/McLaren/Williams ( maybe Renault too )should understand better the implications of tyre change, which is a huge advantage in first few races at least. Not to forget the very limited test times. Older teams have years and years worth of data regarding the tyre behaviour, which they can compare to Pirelli, and search for similarities. They have Bridgestone/Michelin/GoodYear data at least.
It'll be interesting to see Mercedes, because their huge disadvantage this year begins exactly with the tyres. I'm not their fan, but I don't want Mercedes to leave the sport if they fail again...
So we , here on this forum will monitor the winter tests even closely than this year I'm sure

[raymondu999]

I think we cant be too sure. We all saw 2007 when the reigning 2x wcc renault fell to shambles (well I exaggerate, but still) because of misunderstanding a tyre change

[kalinka]

Yes, but Reanult back then doesn't have the same experience ( as a team ) as other big teams. They were in F1 only as engine suppliers for many years, and probably doesn't have direct access to tyre data from that years. Just guessing. Probably that kind of data is a top secret and well protected by teams.

Back on topic : RBR experienced only one tyre manufacturer change : Michelin to Bridgestone. It's only this fact that makes me think that the older/bigger teams will have a little advantage on that - and it's quite important advantage nowdays.

[lolzi]

Yes, but Reanult back then doesn't have the same experience ( as a team ) as other big teams. They were in F1 only as engine suppliers for many years, and probably doesn't have direct access to tyre data from that years. Just guessing. Probably that kind of data is a top secret and well protected by teams.

Back on topic : RBR experienced only one tyre manufacturer change : Michelin to Bridgestone. It's only this fact that makes me think that the older/bigger teams will have a little advantage on that - and it's quite important advantage nowdays.

Renault bought Benetton in 2000, and without knowing anything about Formula 1, I would expect Benetton's data and so forth to be "transferred" as well. That would mean that in 2007, Renault had loads of experience.

[kalinka]

Yes, it's true but you have good examples that this doesn't mean that they get the know-how too. Just look at Honda-Brawn-Mercedes thing this year. These teams doesn't have the continuity in generations of engineers, people, facilities, etc...You may get the data, but it's not easy to understand if it's collected by another company. Sure it's not impossibble, so there you may be right, but in my opinion it's just the version of events vith a least probability. In Renault's case there was Flavio Briatore who represented the continuity, and sure it wasn't by incident that Renault insisted on his leadership. I can't remember, but he must've hired some engineers and stuff from the old days when he started the new team in 2000.

[MikeFromCanada]

Yes, it's true but you have good examples that this doesn't mean that they get the know-how too. Just look at Honda-Brawn-Mercedes thing this year. These teams doesn't have the continuity in generations of engineers, people, facilities, etc.

But they do. Mercedes GP is using the same facility that Brawn used, which is the same that Honda used. Same goes for the engineers/staff they've got working there too, albeit the number of staff have decreased. This would be the same for most, if not all takeovers in F1 (or in any business for that matter). Really the only thing that has changed is who is paying the bills.

[Shrieker]

Really the only thing that has changed is who is paying the bills.

That alone -in my books- explains why they sucked this season after last year's success... Old BAR / / Honda squad mojo at work I don't see them getting any better for 2011, and also can't see why they'll end up any differently than Honda did. I say "no such team as Mercedes GP" come 2014.

[Holm86]

Has this mandatory weight distribution been confirmed?? Havent heard much about it.
If its true its a stupid rule.

yes, it is. The idea behind it is that with the little knowledge about the characteristics of the new Pirreli tires, some team may simply luck into the right weight distribution and have huge advantage next year. To prevent that, the team opted for the mandatory weight distribution. As I understand it, it should be valid only for next year. Then everyone can go whatever they want because they will no how the tires behave.

Thanks for clearing that up for me It really makes sense then.

[raymondu999]

Yes, it's true but you have good examples that this doesn't mean that they get the know-how too. Just look at Honda-Brawn-Mercedes thing this year. These teams doesn't have the continuity in generations of engineers, people, facilities, etc...You may get the data, but it's not easy to understand if it's collected by another company

Doesn't prove a thing. Honda has never had a good understanding of tyres IMO.

On the other hand, in a sense RBR had used Michelins, Bridgestones, then moved on to slicks (which have a different balance) and now this year's slicks.

[kalinka]

Doesn't prove a thing. Honda has never had a good understanding of tyres IMO.

Agree on that. That is just another prove to me that team-takeover is always a gamble and rarely can the new team continue where the previous ends. Brawn was the exception because esentially the new car was finished before they taked over. You can't be sure if they were even collecting the data in proper way.

On the other hand, in a sense RBR had used Michelins, Bridgestones, then moved on to slicks (which have a different balance) and now this year's slicks.

Yes, but what is that experience compared let's say to Ferrari/McL/Williams. They have almost every data for every tyre on any track with almost any conditions (hot,cold,rain).
10 years for RBR is not enough to do this, and their data is mainly for grooved tyres. Sure they have enough data for Jerez or Barcelona, but not for other tracks. I'm not a tyre expert, but I'm a computer programmer for 20 years. I know how you can extract data from huge databases. If you have enough data, you can search for similar behaviours amongst different tyres, and find solutions based on that. Even it doesn't matter if it's another manufacturer. You can find similarities and find strategy for development. This is only true if teams were enough aware back in old days, and backed up all that data when the use of computers were not that common in F1. Maybe some teams only have that in papers, or they don't keep all the data before the grooved-tyres era.
It's true not only for tyres, but for any measurable thing in F1. Measuring something precisely is a very delicate thing, it's a science. You have to measure things in same place, same time, with same instrument to eliminate errors. In a case of team takeover I'm not sure that all that information can be transferred, especially for older databases.

[lolzi]

In a case of team takeover I'm not sure that all that information can be transferred, especially for older databases.

You don't need to transfer information. It's a team takeover, not a new team. Most, if not all, of the facilities, people, etc. are kept. It's still exactly the same team. It's just a name change.
And even though I know next to nothing about tyres, I don't think you can get much useful information by comparing new tyres to 15 year old tyres. The tyres change, the track changes and all the other changes would probably make it impossible to do any proper comparison.

[freedom_honda]

Really the only thing that has changed is who is paying the bills.

That alone -in my books- explains why they sucked this season after last year's success... Old BAR / / Honda squad mojo at work I don't see them getting any better for 2011, and also can't see why they'll end up any differently than Honda did. I say "no such team as Mercedes GP" come 2014.

I disagree. The problem with Honda was that they kept intervening with the management of the team. They kept shifting engineers around. They would bring their own people in from Japan, let them spend sometime in the team, then took him out again and replace them with some new people. Since Brawn came in they let Brawn took control and see how well 2009 went for the team. The problem with this year's car was that the team was essentially underfunded in 2009 when they were developing this year's car. Remember they only had something like 150 million to spend last year. That's a fraction of what the other big teams are spending.

If Mercedes are willing to spend a decent amount of money in the team, I reckon they will be fighting for wins again next year or 2012.

[mx_tifoso]

I think that RBR will definitely hold on to their advantage in 2011, especially since the majority of their team will remain the same. Same drivers, engineers, management, etc. And don't forget the general continuation of the rules from this season.

Hopefully it's not the case though, even though it has been nice to see someone else besides the usual two teams winning for the past two years. I would like for Williams, Sauber, and Force India to be in the fight as well.