2011 WDC and WCC odds

[WhiteBlue]

I will run my records of betting odds and analysis of the odds in 2011 again. Right after the season final this was the opening situation.



I will add WCC odds as soon as they are offered by a suitable bookie. I will probably be using betfair for the purpose.

[Tamburello]

I will look forward to your analysis because I find it strange that certain teammates should have such disparity in their chances.

[WhiteBlue]

Here we go with the WCC and match opening odds.



Red Bull is favorite for WCC. Alonso is favorite to beat his team mate while Rosberg is least favorite of the top teams to do so.

[godlameroso]

I find it strange that odds can be generated arbitrarily without even knowing what the 2011 cars will even look like, let alone perform. Next year we could see the running order shaken up.

[WhiteBlue]

The betting volume must be very low atm, but there are still people who like to risk a few quit. The bookies probably speculate on past performance until the betting picks up. Later we will see real market data when big computer controlled betting programs like betfair open their markets. So this is only the opening score which I like to record for historical review.

[scotty86]

I find it strange that odds can be generated arbitrarily without even knowing what the 2011 cars will even look like, let alone perform. Next year we could see the running order shaken up.

That's exactly how i made loads off betting on Brawn - i had money on Button and Barrichello at 25 and 30/1 respectively last year!

13/1 on Webber for the title? I'd definitely take a punt on that. Hell, even 4/1 for Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton would be worth a try.

[FrukostScones]

They must be a lot of betting on Schumacher, Roberg and Kubica at the moment.

[WhiteBlue]

The odds have not significantly changed. So it makes no sense to record a new round before the cars come out and test. The total market at Betfair is just €27,330

[FrukostScones]

Ok maybe, the best odds for Rosberg were 24, now the average is 12 and the best you can get is 18. The best for Kubica was 29 (or 33?) now the average is 19 and the best you can get is 24 ( from a traditional bookmaker not betfair ). The odds for Schumacher went up and down, now they are down to an average of 12.

[FrukostScones]

For all Jenson Button fans, a stunning 19 can be found on interwet...
But I would not bet too much on him because if the new Macca is strong the number one will be HAM.

[Roland Ehnström]

I find it strange that odds can be generated arbitrarily without even knowing what the 2011 cars will even look like, let alone perform. Next year we could see the running order shaken up.

That's exactly how i made loads off betting on Brawn - i had money on Button and Barrichello at 25 and 30/1 respectively last year!

I placed €10 on Button at 100/1. Needless to say it was my best bet ever. I placed that bet on day 2 of the Barcelona test, where Brawn were the only cars running in the 1:18's if I remember correctly.

[FrukostScones]

I find it strange that odds can be generated arbitrarily without even knowing what the 2011 cars will even look like, let alone perform. Next year we could see the running order shaken up.

That's exactly how i made loads off betting on Brawn - i had money on Button and Barrichello at 25 and 30/1 respectively last year!

I placed €10 on Button at 100/1. Needless to say it was my best bet ever. I placed that bet on day 2 of the Barcelona test, where Brawn were the only cars running in the 1:18's if I remember correctly.

yeah, this was crazy!

[WhiteBlue]

I have changed my methodology a bit. I will use automatically generated odds from the BetFair web site from now. Because they are globally collected and quote the matched market I think that I can save the time to compute composite odds from several web sites. The automatic algorithm also insures that there is a very small overrun. This way the true betting money is more accurately represented. I have now collected BetFair odds from the first and the third day of the Valencia test.



The Betfair F1 WDC market improved by 33% in volume during the first F1 test in Valencia from 60 to 80 k€. The movements were small. Alonso, Rosberg, Kubica and Sutil improved. Kubica went from 23 to 18 at the last day due to taking P1. It still looks like a season between Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton unless significant news is generated by the next few tests. I see a possible surprise chance at Mercedes. They ran pretty reliably on the third day and had a record of 110 laps. Rosberg came nowhere near this kind of reliability on the second day and might have suffered in the odds as a result of that.

[FrukostScones]

due to Kubica's sad crash there are intense movements on the betting market:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/ ... ampionship

[WhiteBlue]

Update on the odds before the second test and after Kubica accident. The market now at 128 k€.



Heidfeld has now been added.



A closer look at the Renault driver odds.