2011 WDC and WCC odds

[WhiteBlue]

Today is a historical new high for Hamilton odds. At a market value of 241k€ Hamilton hits 8 for the first time.



I have no doubt the negative move comes from the bad testing news for McLaren.

[WilliamsF1]

Why MW is behind the 2 Mclaren driver? What are the pointers?

[horse]

Why MW is behind the 2 Mclaren driver? What are the pointers?

Webber's odds are better than Button's. I'm not surprised by this move in the market, WB, are you? What is surprising me is that Button has not moved out at the same rate as Hamilton. Bookies think he's dealing with the car better, maybe?

The real shock for me from the above is how wide the odds on Massa are. Poor bloke, he's been totally written off as a title contender.

[Just_a_fan]

Perhaps Webber and Massa's positions reflect the perception that each is very much the number 2 driver in their respective teams?

[Caito]

I was going to say something simlar to just a fan. Webber(lets supose) has a better car than Hamilton. He's odd should be better, but he still has to beat vettel. Which is (according to the bets) improbable. As is, it's more probable that Hamilton beats vettel than Webber beats vettel.


Remember the odds are for world champion. Though I'm really a Webber fan I think Webber will need a really great driving and luck to beat Vettel.

[rfs]

What were Lewis's odds in 2009?

[WhiteBlue]

Webber's odds are better than Button's. I'm not surprised by this move in the market, WB, are you? What is surprising me is that Button has not moved out at the same rate as Hamilton. Bookies think he's dealing with the car better, maybe?

These WDC odds are based on an automatic algorithm which determines them from the money bet on each driver. So bookies opinion do not come into it. Webber is simply rated by the car he drives (supposed to be the best) and versus his team mate who is the top driver for 2011 WDC atm.

I agree that Button is relatively high rated compared to Massa and Webber. It might be speculation that he will be good on the Pirellis. Personally I don't believe in that theory. It could simply be his 2009 WDC status that is giving him a bonus with the punters.

Today BetFair opened the market for WCC odds.



Although the market is very small I have more confidence in the odds than the Williams Hill odds I have previously tracked. I will use BetFair for WCC odds as well.

[Caito]

Odds depends only on money bet? Meaning that if I put lots of money on Perez he would have better odds than Vettel, right?

[raymondu999]

It could actually not be a reflection of Webber, but a reflection that people think that Webber can't beat Vettel, ie they think Hamilton beating Button is more likely than Webber beating Vettel. Because once you can't beat your teammate, there is 0 chance you'll be champion. You have to be able to beat your teammate first before being able to hope of becoming champion

EG (theoretically)
if we had:

Kubica - Yamamoto in Red Bull,
then
Vettel-Liuzzi in HRT

Nobody in their right minds would bet for Yamamoto, as they'd be thinking, "he might be in the fastest car, but no way he'll beat Kubica." And then, "There's no way Liuzzi would beat Vettel."

Given the following presumptions, Vettel and Kubica are the only 2 shots for the title (in this theoretical 4 horse race) as Yamamoto and Liuzzi would get suckered by their teammates anyways. Vettel could place higher than Yamamoto in the betting odds.

I hope I made sense

[WhiteBlue]

Odds depends only on money bet? Meaning that if I put lots of money on Perez he would have better odds than Vettel, right?

Indeed. But you would have to use quite a bit of money. The balanced market is €253,455. I reckon that almost 30% of that is on Vettel. So you would have to commit something like €76,200 on Perez to push him up.

Atm the size of the WCC market is very small at €790.



WDC and WCC odds are now updated with BetFair figures. McLaren is now closer to Mercedes than Ferrari.



Webber is catching up and Hamilton is loosing ground on him.

[n smikle]

What if you divide the driver by the car odds?

[WhiteBlue]

I think the series graphic is now becoming informative as the Webber vs Hamilton situation evolves. You clearly see that not only is the Red Bull looking stronger but also the McLaren is looking weaker by the number of tests they do.

What if you divide the driver by the car odds?

I have done that in the past but slightly different. I have first divided the car odds by the leading car's value to create standardized car odds. Then I did the division of the driver odds by the car odds.

The problem with this method is the huge distortion you see when the car odds go beyond 10. So all you can really compare are front running drivers with relatively equal cars. This year I would say that Red Bull and Ferrari would fit the bill and possibly McLaren and Mercedes. I'm not sure the pre season odds are really going to reflect what we may see behind the top two cars. So at the moment I'm not eager to do this additional work. Per haps I will if we get a good scenario with more cars well below the odds of 10.

[WhiteBlue]

Update of the WDC and WCC odds after dry winter testing completed.



McLaren are caught by Mercedes on joint odds of 7. Hamilton goes up to 9.



Button goes up to 16.5 and gets passed by Schumacher and Rosberg.



A new serial plot shows the WCC odds. Only the 11.03. odds are from BetFair but in the future all data will be from this source.

[raymondu999]

Hi WB. In your Excel screenshot you have a column called "global." Is that a mean figure, or is that actually a bookie?

[WhiteBlue]

Hi WB. In your Excel screenshot you have a column called "global." Is that a mean figure, or is that actually a bookie?

That is a reference to my 2010 methodology. I used bookies from the UK, Germany and Spain to average global odds. I have been criticised for massive over runs that recreational betting produces. As a result I have changed the WDC odds in February to the BetFair odds which are computer algorithm driven. Thus I'm pretty sure that they really represent the betting money. I also record what BetFair call the balanced market. That is only the part of the bets that are actually matched with conditions set by the better. Only matched bets are considered by the algorithm which determines the odds.

For WCC odds I have used William Hill for some weeks because no other odds were available. But now I have switched that to BetFair as well. The market has grown slowly and is much smaller than the WDC market but it is fairly sensitive to technical and performance news.