F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

[WhiteBlue]

I'm opening the traditional betting thread with the Betfair driver odds from January 3rd.



The market is less than €8.000 but is has the benefit of no information about the cars.

Vettel is the run away favourite of the betting money to defend his title. It looks like Ferrari is expected to produce a slightly better car than they had in 2011. But that is probably always expected. I don't believe it will materialize.

Mercedes is firmly seen on number four position of the pecking order with no difference between Schumacher and Rosberg.

Hamilton is expected to beat his team mate again after his annus horribilis in 2011.

Let's see how the picture will change over testing and when the results of the fly aways come in.

[Caito]

I voted Vettel, but I'd like to multiple vote Button too. If I had to place some money on bets, I'd bet to those two.

[beelsebob]

To be honest, 8.6:1 on button might not be a horrific bet.

[raymondu999]

I think that in quali Ham will still have But for dinner. But over a stint, on the Pirellis, I think But is quicker

[Mr.S]

Formula 1 Championships have very rarely been won on ultimate speeds & will rarely be.

Setting the car up,tyre dregadation,strategy calls,reliabilty or lack of incidents & performing on Key time is going to decide the championship.

Formula has rarely been about ultimate speeds. Alonso beat mclaren comfortably on a much inferior car in 2005 & the 2002 championship was nowhere near as dominant as the point showed. 5 consecutive poles for Montoya,with as different tracks as Montreal & Monaco & he could not win a race out of those.

Button's already beaten Hamilton & by a solid 30-40 points odd. Let's not forget Button had a mechanical failure & pit stop blunder costing him 2 races,that is like another 20-25 points atleast Gone Begging.

[blokkie]

I went for schumi ...
If the car alows .. he's an old fox and prolly will get the team-orders advantage over Rosberg when it comes down to the final .

[Mr Alcatraz]

Way to get on it WB I really enjoyed the 2011 "book” and evolving statistical graphs you provided. Thanks for the time and effort you put into it!
Prop's to you my man!

[WhiteBlue]

There is little evolution from the last time I posted in the drivers odds. The biggest jump probably comes from Kimi Räikkönen



We also get Constructors now. This is basically after half the winter testing.



No big surprises there. Ferrari comfortably behind the top teams with Merc on their heels. Merc may actually be a bit better than their odds indicate. The betting money is always conservative.

[bhallg2k]

The betting money is always conservative.

And in no way indicative of reality.

(I couldn't resist. But, then again, disclaimers are important.)

[Mr Alcatraz]

Thanks WB

[Websta]

[...]Ham will still have But for dinner [...]

I went for schumi ...
If the car alows .. he's an old fox and prolly will get the team-orders advantage over Rosberg when it comes down to the final .

I doubt it, considering that Rosberg is the future of Mercedes, although if Schumacher is in a position to win the WDC at the end of the season, he probably will be hanging around a lot longer as well.

[WhiteBlue]

The betting money is always conservative.

And in no way indicative of reality....

That, my friend is debatable. I believe the international internet driven betting market to be highly sensitive to all changes of performance indicators. It has been far better than the average racing fan whose views may be distorted by driver or team preference.

[Crucial_Xtreme]

I picked Fernando. 1/2 with head the other 1/2 heart. I think he might have a good chance. I think Button is the best pick if you're betting. I like Lewis more, but I expect Jenson to have a better season and again place higher in the WDC. He's coming off a very strong season & has lots of confidence. Yes Lewis is in a better place, but it's about confidence and whether he wants to admit it or not, he's lacking some. It can be regained this year question is will it be enough. I believe Lewis has more raw pace, but over a race distance, have to give Jenson the nod.
Still if the car is competitive, Fernando will have a good shot.

[dren]

I think Raikkonen and Button are good bets at this point. I am picking Button to win his 2nd championship. Raikkonen is a good bet at this point because if the Lotus shows real well in the next test, those odds could likely change.

[donskar]

Thanks for valuable posts, WB. I voted for Vettel with my head; Alonso with my heart.

I'm hoping Alonso wins WDC, Button again tromps Hamilton, and Kimi wins at least one race.