raymondu999 wrote:Why not just multiplying the straight odds to the driver's points? ie say Jenson is going at 6/4 payout now - multiply 6/4 to 25.
n smikle wrote:Good graphs. I look forward to them every race.
WhiteBlue wrote:Well done Sebastian!! He is now favourite to win the WDC 2012 again.
Goran2812 wrote:WB, you wish...
WhiteBlue wrote:WhiteBlue wrote:Well done Sebastian!! He is now favourite to win the WDC 2012 again.Goran2812 wrote:WB, you wish...
He is leading the championship and the odds. So what is wrong about that statement?
WhiteBlue wrote:TheRMVR wrote:So what? I thought this is a technical forum. Betting odds are a result of on-track results, not the other way around. So using them as trying to explain how bad a team is doing is ridiculous. Gamblers are always one step behind and this forum is supposed to be one step ahead.
And there you are mistaken. Internet generated odds are working like a market. Every information and even the smallest bit immediately influences the betting market. Technology is only part of the performance. Betting markets react to expectations of performance and not so much to race results. Race results are only the confirmation.
Ferrari is the perfect example for this. When Alonso won in Malaysia his WDC odds improved a bit but not significantly. The market knew that the car was bad although the result was good. Even today Ferrari has more points than Mercedes but the market knows the car is bad and the odds for Ferrari to win the WCC are 60 where Merc has 27. This is because the market knows the Merc car is better and likely to remain better. You see, it is not a matter of the results but of the detailed performance expectations of which the technical stuff is only a part.
TheRMVR wrote:So why are you on this forum then? Why not just look at betting odds all day?
Compare it to the free market. In theory there is something like 'perfect competition', where every consumer knows every price of every good and there are no switching costs or barriers for consumers. Such a place does not exist.
It's the same in betting. By treating the odds as truth, you falsely assume that every betting person knows everything about every team possibly available. Let alone they know every technical aspect of every part of the car. They know all about the facilities of all teams and even the state of mind of the drivers. Its rubbish.
Some gamblers do actually take the technical side into account. But most of them act on gut feeling and previous results. Others use statistics of over 60 years of F1. And then there are the ones who just want to have some fun.
In the end it's not science, it's betting.
Saying 'look the betting odds say Ferrari can't overcome this, so they won't' is ridiculous. I don't mind seeing betting odds before a race on this site to see what other people think. But using them as some sort of all knowing all-encompassing oracle to support an argument of yours is showing weakness in that very argument. Lets keep it technical, and leave the betting to the drunk, broke alchoholic who wishes for a better life and spends his life-savings on bwin.com.
So on a technical note, what does Ferrari stop from improving in Spain?
Felipe needs to accept, that he is facing a very strong teammate. If not, that hurts him. He needs to assume a clear role rather than trying to take advantage -- you need to learn from Fernando, not challenge him. That (challenging) is the way to being destroyed by a teammate such as Alonso or Schumacher, who are real cannibals. Ferrari has a moral obligation to champion Alonso. He (Alonso) has a central role in the team, and he therefore participates in the important issues.
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