F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

[WhiteBlue]

Excuse my ignorance - but where did the other 62.9% of the pie chart go?

To the other non Red Bull drivers. What I'm doing there is simply visualising the probabilities as expressed by the odds for the team mates. So you can compare team mates in relationship to each other irrespective of the absolute odds.



This is the data table I have been using. The % colum shows the inverted odds at the time of the last data set.



This is how it looks if you compare all five teams from the top of the WDC table. You basically get a graphical impression what kind of domination is expected by the odds. The graphic effect is making it comparable over the teams. I don't think I can do it easily with bars.



And this is the single image that I posted.

[raymondu999]

I think in terms of title chasing a clearer picture is emerging - Vettel and Alonso I think will be the primary protagonists (despite neither having the quickest, or probably 2nd quickest car - I attribute that to McLaren and Lotus), with Hamilton a half-outside shot, given his team's recent propensity to dispense points at their leisure. You could see it in Spain too - champion drives from all 3 of them.

In terms of the fight for P4 after those three - I think it'll be close between Raikkonen, Button and Webber.

WB - and the betting money says?

[Cam]

I'm opening the traditional betting thread with the Betfair driver odds from January 3rd.

Bump. WhiteBlue, just wondering whether there's an official update on odds now the season is panning out. Kimi would've been good to have some coin on for a place early on in the year. The bookies didn't back him early eh?

[WhiteBlue]

Vettel 1.29
Alonso 4.4
Kimi 400

is the present status of the odds for WDC. I have stopped to post the regular updates in spring because I got a little pissed off by the attitude of some people around here. It makes no sense to do any graphic stuff because I missed all season.

[Joie de vivre]

Who will win? Little infintile Vettel.

[Joie de vivre]

Someone gave me a -1 in my previous post.

Let me clarify myself why I called him infantile:



He is immature, childish. Look at Alonso. Mature, dedicated, focused, determined.

I still think he doesn't deserve this years title.

edit.

[WhiteBlue]

Perhaps not the right yard stick. Senna, Berger, Schumacher were all up to the occasional prank when the opportunity arose. So why not give the guy a bit of a wider berth. The ex drivers know that they are likely to get doused when they do the interviews.

[Caito]

That he's at the peak of motorsport doesn't mean he has to be all serious and unfunny when he's out of the car.

Having a sense of humor is different to being infantile.


I'll go with Bernie's words "the one who wins deserves the title".

[beelsebob]

I'd agree that Vettel looked Invantile... I just don't think it's a bad thing.

Being able to play around and not take everything in life super seriously is a good thing.

[Nando]

I think as a future 3 time world champ he is immensely immature and acts like a cry baby quite a lot of times.
Sure he´s happy and stuff when things go well, that´s normal. If i had a couple of millions in the bank and was an F1 driver i would also be as happy as they come.

But when things go bad it´s crazy to watch him complain.
Anyone remember the FU sign to Narain? The screaming at Ricciardo for doing what everyone else is doing? The running into DRS boards because he´s sleeping at the wheel? The screaming in the pit radio "DO SOMETHING, I CAN`T PASS, DO SOMETHING"? The screaming when it rains and the "F´n car goes off" ?

He acts like a spoiled brat that thinks STR and their drivers are a lesser worth F1 team or something, as if he´s above them.

I honestly can´t wait for this RBR era to be over so people can see just how much was the car and how little it was the driver.
I find it hilarious when news sites compare him to Fangio and stuff, it´s absolutely ridiculous.

[beelsebob]

I think as a future 3 time world champ he is immensely immature and acts like a cry baby quite a lot of times.
Sure he´s happy and stuff when things go well, that´s normal. If i had a couple of millions in the bank and was an F1 driver i would also be as happy as they come.

Right, I agree, the way he throws his toys out the pram when things aren't going right is pretty disgusting.

[Nando]

With that said, he´s not a bad driver. He´s very good actually but he´s not a Messiah.

[lebesset]

With that said, he´s not a bad driver. He´s very good actually but he´s not a Messiah.

+1

[Joie de vivre]

nvm 

[raymondu999]

So with the finale, here are the standings

New points
Vettel - 273
Alonso - 260

13 points. 13 points in it. Alonso must outscore Vettel by 14 points. In the event that they end up even stevens on score - then Vettel wins the title because of winning more races.

In order for Alonso to be the 2012 champion, Alonso MUST FINISH ON THE PODIUM, and Vettel MUST FINISH OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 4

Vettel will be champion if:
- Vettel finishes in the top 4
- Vettel finishes P5-P7, Alonso finishes P2 or lower
- Vettel P8-P9, Alonso finishes P3 or lower
- Vettel finishes P10/DNFs, Alonso off the podium

Alonso will be champion if:
- Alonso wins, Vettel finishes P5 or lower
- Alonso P2, Vettel finishes P8 or lower
- Alonso P3, Vettel finishes P10 or lower
- If Alonso is off the podium, he CANNOT be champion.

==============================================================================

(I did the old money calculations just for the hell of it)
Old points
Vettel – 112
Alonso – 106

Same rules apply as above (if they end up same score, then Vettel becomes champion). Interestingly in old money Vettel is a lot closer to the title.

In OLD MONEY, in order for Alonso to be the 2012 champion, Alonso MUST FINISH IN THE TOP 2, and Vettel MUST FINISH OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 5

Vettel will be champion if:
- Vettel finishes in the top 5
- Vettel finishes P6-P7, Alonso finishes P2 or lower
- Vettel finishes P8 or lower, Alonso finishes P3 or lower

Alonso will be champion if:
- Alonso wins, Vettel finshes P6 or lower
- Alonso finishes P2, Vettel finishes P8 or lower