What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[astracrazy]

Well Alonso isn't going to run away with it i.e do a Vettel. So his going to be losing ground to someone at each race. Its just a matter of by how much. This weekend he would be happy with but he still lost ground to Hamilton...

This championship is far from over and i wouldn't even class it as his to lose - yet.

[beelsebob]

Well Alonso isn't going to run away with it i.e do a Vettel. So his going to be losing ground to someone at each race. Its just a matter of by how much. This weekend he would be happy with but he still lost ground to Hamilton...

This championship is far from over and i wouldn't even class it as his to lose - yet.

heh, I'm not sure I'd call that "doing a Vettel" – he only ran away with it in 2011; in 2010, he did everything he could to lose it. I'd call it more "doing a Schumacher".

[astracrazy]

Well Alonso isn't going to run away with it i.e do a Vettel. So his going to be losing ground to someone at each race. Its just a matter of by how much. This weekend he would be happy with but he still lost ground to Hamilton...

This championship is far from over and i wouldn't even class it as his to lose - yet.

heh, I'm not sure I'd call that "doing a Vettel" – he only ran away with it in 2011; in 2010, he did everything he could to lose it. I'd call it more "doing a Schumacher".

sorry i meant 2011. either way you get me

[Jackuar]

I know I can't simply "Assume" bluntly - but just for arguments' sake, let's say

1. We extra-polate the current status of the cars and their strengths and weakness, as they're today (Meaning no more further additions in development and improvements) - so that it gives a fair equalness.
2. The weather is "Expected" to behave as per the "Majority" of previous races - meaning may I assume Spa to be around 25, 30 deg max; Brazil to be wet - last few years they've mostly been that way; Indian gp - dry as like last year (Since its still fairly rainy season here in November, it will be low temp), Monza, korea and singapore - dry and hot) and likewise...

Atleast 4 out of 9 remaining tracks seem to suit Ferrari's medium-high-speed corner advantage - Spa, Monza, Suzuka and Brazil (Especially if its wet, as in last few years, which again is advantage for FA's driving style).

What I could see happening is,

Lotus expected to be NOT strong in Spa, Brazil and other low temp tracks (Japan once in a while/ India) - I don't see them dominating like how they did at Hungary. Alonso can finish ahead of both if all goes well. So a min of 3 point lead growth in 4 races .... --> +48 + 12 vs (Equal or even if less performance in other 5 races, atleast pick some valuable points ) ---- Looks like fending off Kimi should be fairly easy.

RBR - Strength - slow/medium speed traction (India, Korea, Abu Dhabi, Singapore); But Not good top speed and high speed corners which this car doesn't seem to handle that well (Loses Spa, Monza, Brazil, Suzuka) - Alonso can manage to finish ahead atleast one of them (50% of work done) and other 50% expect SV and MW to take points off each other. --- Unless one of the drivers pulls ahead magically, picking up all P1/P2/P3, its gonna be difficult.

The only real threat I see is coming from McLaren. At the end of Germany I would not have given them a chance, adding with the numerous blunders they've been doing but the last updates seem to have put them back in the game. And we know it was Hamilton/Button whom we expected to fight this year given their car baseline - before McLaren throwing it away in the middle. So, since now they're back with some good updates, I expect Lewis to give a real fight.

I'd say 65% of work is done; Chance of losing it - 35%; The fight will be Lewis vs Alonso at the end.

[Jackuar]

Edit:
And yes, another important "Possible/probable" assumption that I missed out...

Maldonado takes out one of them once in a while

[zyphro]

I expect Red Bull to bounce back, probably finding another loop-hole of some sort .

[FrukostScones]

when I look back to the 2007 season, than I see that 2012 every of the top5 driver can be WDC. maybe Webber not, but I would not count solely on Alonso. With the new point system that rewards a win more, it will not be as easy as in 2005 to manage the lead for ALO. One DNF, another fifth place and they are right at him.

[Jackuar]

I expect Red Bull to bounce back, probably finding another loop-hole of some sort .

If they put the effort in finding loop holes to developing their cars, one of their drivers would have been closer to Alonso...

Again, I'm simply guessing here - with half the season over - probably there are no more loop holes to find... Or the time left is not enough to find a good one... Because 9 races in 3 months - 3 races per month - the second half is tightly packed to allot time to look for them.. But, again, who knows what they can do..??!!

[siskue2005]

One dnf from Alonso, They will all come closer to him

And one DNF from the chasing pack and they are really struggling to stay in the title race. It works both ways.

yeah, who said it doesnt?
One of the reason he is ahead is coz of too many Dnfs from others

[Jackuar]

yeah, who said it doesnt?
One of the reason he is ahead is coz of too many Dnfs from others

yeah, who said it doesnt?
One of the reason others are trailing is coz of too many Dnfs from others

In a head-to-head comparison, I'd say never consider DNFs. If someone doesn't finish, its his loss. The leader can no way be credited less just because those behind failed.

[Speedster]

I think I need to wait until Spa to answer this question. The Hungaroring was probably the circuit that least suited the Ferrari. Interestingly, Sauber was mediocre here too, as well as Torro Rosso (not really a benchmark this year though), so maybe the Ferrari engine isn't the best in this circuit either (maybe low-speed traction?).

Also, the Ferrari is not a good car in the longer slow-speed corners, of which there are a lot in Hungary. It suffered from massive understeer, Alonso couldn't get the power down. In the second sector of a lap with the higher-speed stuff, he was quite competitive.

As I said, I want to wait till Spa, that circuit should suit the Ferrari better. If we get a normal weekend (in Spa this means rain, probably, but with normal I mean dry and normal temps) and the Ferrari is on par with the best car, it's Alonso's to lose. If the Ferrari is only third-fastest or worse there, it will be almost impossible in my opinion.

[CHT]

With 6 race to go, what are the chances of Alonso losing it this time?

01 Fernando Alonso 194
02 Sebastian Vettel 165 (-29)
03 Kimi Räikkönen 149 (-45)
04 Lewis Hamilton 142 (-52)
05 Mark Webber 133 (-61)
06 Jenson Button 119 (-75)

[zyphro]

Too difficult to call to be honest, IF (massive if), he has another DNF - everything is all to play for. If he continues to score in P3-P5 positions, he'll take the title probably.

[Gerhard Berger]

With 6 races to go in 2010, Hamilton was 31 points ahead of Vettel and 41 points ahead of Alonso. He ended up finishing 16 points behind Vettel and 12 points behind Alonso.

[Kiril Varbanov]

One DNF and the title race is open more than ever, with Hamilton and Vettel ahead.
Ferrari are totally losing the development fight in the last few races, and unless they manage to turn the things around, the point lead is in danger.
One win for Alonso, however, and stuff will be in the theory domain, again, if he's able to score points consistently. He has a bit of advantage in terms of engines used.

P.S. I can't really remember, nor find data for it, but are we seeing too much gearbox issues and/or penalties this season or I'm just not able to call my long-term memory correctly?